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Pats/Chiefs Under 58
Grab it men. Best bet on the board, in my opinion. The forecast for KC on Sunday is a high of 15 degrees....ain’t nobody wanna throw in that.
Pats will want to slow the game down to a crawl and keep it low scoring. Chiefs will play conservative also because the Pats only chance is turnovers. Grab it and Go my dearest, closest internet pals.
31-24’ish type game.
Get it before the number drops
the number will drop. remember 15 is the day time temp. this game will be played after sunset. saw a fact that games under 10 degrees have never gone over 40 total pts
Yep. Prime time night game and a low of 8 degrees. Both teams may just agree to punt back and forth for the first half and avoid hitting each other.
thing i dont like is that it is a heated field. and there is rain/snow in the days before kickoff. so we might get a muddy track which is not good for the defense. however if the temp is 5 degrees that will instantly freeze the field when the tarp comes off. ive locked in my biggest bet of the year on this. i need it to get colderOriginally Posted by WvGambler
and more wind. its at 10mph now there and creeping up. 5 degrees with 20 mph winds this would be a lock
Best of luck (truly) and all, but if I’m thinking under big, im
not, also, simultaneously thinking 31-24...ish
Last edited by Wrongside; 01-14-19 at 03:43 PM.
You may be right because 58 is a pretty big number, but every year weather becomes an over-rated angle in playoff games, particularly temperature.
it sure as hell wasnt an overrated factor last week. Chiefs need the pass rush. Bad conditions slow down the pass rush considerably
jizay...I agree with you that many times cold can be over rated. Usually wind can be a major factor which shouldn't be a factor in this game. But then you have cold.....and you have frigid. Low single digits by kickoff in this game.
By the second qtr. WR's can't catch their breath. Ever been out in frigid weather and it hurts just to breathe? Now imagine running at full speed.....even for a conditioned athlete. Then you have RB's wearing gloves who are not used to wearing gloves cuz otherwise they are afraid to fumble without the gloves cuz they can't feel the ball cuz their hands are numb. So they wear gloves and they fumble anyway cuz they are not used to wearing gloves and there is a change in possession .....time runs off the clock helping the under.
WR's dropping balls. You get the picture.
I looked up the coldest 11 games in NFL history. Highest total was 52......Jan. 15, 1994 Bills 29---Raiders 23.
Next highest was Jan. 20, 2008 Giants 23 --- Packers 20. And these were playoff games with top quarterbacks who loved to sling the ball. Kelly, Rodgers, Manning.
Of course I admit I could be dead wrong but I can't help but love the under in this game. Think it is the best bet this Sunday. Plus I think Pats will try to run the ball, slow down the game. Lots of screens for 5-7 yds. Keep Mahomes off the field. I got the number early at 58(under). I even teased it up to 65(under) with the pats at + 10.
It’s gambling
The Pats want this game to be low scoring, and I will always bet towards the Pats getting what they want. They'll game plan for a slow game, and the weather HAS to play a role. It's human nature...the body slows down when its that cold. I can't imagine the Chiefs want young Patrick slinging it around either. Turnovers are the Pats best shot.
The only thing that matters is wind, wind is what will fuk up a game ... Go look up snow and rain games with high scores within the last 10 years . Crazy numbers , receivers get open on wet fields ......
Some books down to 55. I still think 55 goes under, but that field goal may be a no go for guys who didn’t lock it in yet.
if it get to near 0 degrees (which it might). then im going all -in on the under...........last winter it was 10 degrees here it was amazingly cold. an open stadium 0 degrees. belichick running the ball. 20-13 type game
never saw anything over the opening 57 for this game. down to 55 at 5D. where'd you get this #?
Lands right on the total.
34-24
I got 58 at my sports book in town. It opened at 58 at quite a few books on Sunday night and was available til around noon Monday.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds...0-19/time/1840
Last edited by WvGambler; 01-15-19 at 12:48 PM.
Interesting read https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-footba...ct-nfl-scoring
Home teams seem impervious to the temperature, and even gained some points in the coldest of games. Road teams suffered mightily. The average margin of victory grew from 1.6 points in warm weather games to 9.4 points in under 10 degree games.
There is admittedly a smaller sample size for games under 10 degrees, but the trend is not hard to decipher. Home teams are 28-11 in games played in temperatures below 10 degrees, dating back to 1960.
Conclusion: Cold weather games represent a significant advantage to the home team. The colder the weather, the bigger the advantage.
Turnovers will play the biggest role in this game .
i can easy see it , 17 -16 game
its not gonna be as cold as everyone thought ... 20s and 30s nowOver 56
Chiefs have put up 27 plus a game every game this year .... I wonder what odds are on them finally not hitting 20
Essentially cold temps effect scoring little, BUT snow and rain and win are a whole other story.
That's still a huge total for conditions and the stakes
The weather man fuqed this one up.
Mid to upper 20's at kick with minimum wind.
Typical KC weather in late Jan.
Glad I didnt play a bad number on Tuesday.
did u really buy 2 pts for an under
No I got it early at 58 when it opened
You bastards should’ve talked me out of it. This is on you guys.n:
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