1. #1
    danwinkler
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    NCAAB: North Carolina St/Miami FL Nice Bet

    NC State -1.5 (-112)
    3%

    Liked them at -3 and puzzled at the line move. I know public is on NC State but this Miami team is very shorthanded. They don't have enough depth since they don't have enough bench players. Most of the game is played by total of 6 players every game. They have played very weak schedule so far and looked pretty bad. I would expect NC State to run a fast pace game with their deep roster and Miami will have to play slow game or risk getting tired.

  2. #2
    teecee
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    Have you seen NC State's schedule?

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    Any road game is tough

  4. #4
    danwinkler
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    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    Have you seen NC State's schedule?
    still better than miami though. they beat auburn and cause at home. almost beat wisconsin at wisc.

  5. #5
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by danwinkler View Post
    still better than miami though. they beat auburn and cause at home. almost beat wisconsin at wisc.
    Nc state SOS according to kenpom: 351st

    Miami: 264

    Not commenting on outcome just saying.

  6. #6
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Nc state SOS according to kenpom: 351st

    Miami: 264

    Not commenting on outcome just saying.
    I will say nc st has some quality wins at least. Canes best win is Fresno st and other than that game no other wins in top 150 while ncst has a couple strong wins granted not on road.

  7. #7
    danwinkler
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Nc state SOS according to kenpom: 351st

    Miami: 264

    Not commenting on outcome just saying.
    I can't speak for the entire season's schedule but for the games that have finished so far, NC state has played tougher schedule. If kenpom says Miami is better, then its off. Maybe the rating is based on preseason rankings and those rankings are not accurate as season progresses. Miami has looked pretty vulnerable so far. They do have the home advantage but i still see value in NC states line
    Last edited by danwinkler; 01-03-19 at 03:41 PM.

  8. #8
    KingKolzig
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    dan is on to something here. miami has no home advantage might get 4,500 fans in a big arena like a nuetral game

  9. #9
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by danwinkler View Post
    I can't speak for the entire season's schedule but for the games that have finished so far, NC state has played tougher schedule. If kenpom says Miami is better, then its off. Maybe the rating is based on preseason rankings and those rankings are not accurate as season progresses. Miami has looked pretty vulnerable so far. They do have the home advantage but i still see value in NC states line
    I believe they ranked real time based off ranking of teams as they are now.

    I can make a huge case that canes schedule been tougher. Ncst has played few really good teams and won but they also have padded their numbers with serious bottom feeders at home.

    Canes Havnt played top end teams really and only beaten one top 100 but they have faced more the solid 150-200 types that can put up a fight and make numbers look worse than a team that played bunch of the straight pushovers ncst has played.,

    Again none that saying it a bad or good play. I think it fair to say ncst has looked better from the eye test for sure. What Id caution from the eye test is Larranaga is a excellent coach and knows how to prepare his team for conf play (canes type of team Id be more inclined to play in 1st road conf tilt). It usually takes cream of acc crop to come to Miami and beat them in conf. To me value on canes but certainly doesnt mean they will win.. gl

  10. #10
    2daBank
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    Lastly Id say while your statement about ncst being able to wear them out w tempo is absolutely true, canes are thin. Id counter it much harder to get your desired fast pace on road against a team that can slow you down. Canes been playing faster this year but I suspect they slow it down in conf and with their lack of depth.

    All just guesses on my part. lol

  11. #11
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKolzig View Post
    dan is on to something here. miami has no home advantage might get 4,500 fans in a big arena like a nuetral game
    Students are on Christmas break so they will be lucky to have 3,000 unless they are giving free tickets to the homeless

  12. #12
    krk1030
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    Canes total meltdown.

  13. #13
    inmyownzone
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    Quote Originally Posted by krk1030 View Post
    Canes total meltdown.
    yep, I switched over to tor/sa cause I was so confident in Miami. smh had em on a parlay too and the other half had already hit.

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