I'm not disagreeing Harry should not hedge this one. Hedging is what you do if you think the position has changed, or you made parlay like this where the last leg was always too large a bet for your stomach. $694 on Chargers +135 in this case.
But you should never PLAN up front to hedge anything.
If he just bet his $100 on the first 2 legs, right now he would sitting with $594 profit in his account. And can make any choice he wants about tomorrow still.
If he hedged out fully right now at -170, he would not be making "$600". He would make $418 profit.
Here's Harry's exact options;
Hedging Strategies
A spectrum of hedging strategies exists, with three popular strategies shown below.
Unbiased strategy
This strategy aims to provide the same profit or loss regardless of the event outcome. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of
$877.99 on the opposing selection.
The strategy:
|
Stake |
Odds |
Original bet |
$100.00 |
13.96 |
Hedge bet |
$877.99 |
1.59 |
Profit / loss table:
|
Profit if Original Bet Wins |
Profit if Hedge Bet Wins |
Original bet |
$1,296.00 |
$-100.00 |
Hedge bet |
$-877.99 |
$518.01 |
Combined wagers |
$418.01 |
$418.01 |
Biased strategy towards original bet
This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the hedge bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of
$169.49 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection wins this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.
The strategy:
|
Stake |
Odds |
Original bet |
$100.00 |
13.96 |
Hedge bet |
$169.49 |
1.59 |
Profit / loss table:
|
Profit if Original Bet Wins |
Profit if Hedge Bet Wins |
Original bet |
$1,296.00 |
$-100.00 |
Hedge bet |
$-169.49 |
$100.00 |
Combined wagers |
$1,126.51 |
$0.00 |
Biased strategy towards hedge bet
This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the original bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of
$1,296.00 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection loses this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.
The strategy:
|
Stake |
Odds |
Original bet |
$100.00 |
13.96 |
Hedge bet |
$1,296.00 |
1.59 |
Profit / loss table:
|
Profit if Original Bet Wins |
Profit if Hedge Bet Wins |
Original bet |
$1,296.00 |
$-100.00 |
Hedge bet |
$-1,296.00 |
$764.64 |
Combined wagers |
$0.00 |
$664.64 |