Do I Hedge ..Looking for the pros opinions on this who hedge

[FlatEarthBallin]

Harold I Chargers tonight. Why not just hedge your initial wager and basically lose nothing if Pitt wins and still cash large if Chargers come thru?

[maggiethebestdog]

I'm not disagreeing Harry should not hedge this one. Hedging is what you do if you think the position has changed, or you made parlay like this where the last leg was always too large a bet for your stomach. $694 on Chargers +135 in this case.


But you should never PLAN up front to hedge anything.

If he just bet his $100 on the first 2 legs, right now he would sitting with $594 profit in his account. And can make any choice he wants about tomorrow still.

If he hedged out fully right now at -170, he would not be making "$600". He would make $418 profit.




Here's Harry's exact options;

Hedging Strategies

A spectrum of hedging strategies exists, with three popular strategies shown below.

Unbiased strategy

This strategy aims to provide the same profit or loss regardless of the event outcome. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $877.99 on the opposing selection.
The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	13.96
Hedge bet	$877.99	1.59

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$1,296.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-877.99	$518.01
Combined wagers	$418.01	$418.01

Biased strategy towards original bet

This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the hedge bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $169.49 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection wins this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.
The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	13.96
Hedge bet	$169.49	1.59

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$1,296.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-169.49	$100.00
Combined wagers	$1,126.51	$0.00

Biased strategy towards hedge bet

This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the original bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $1,296.00 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection loses this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	13.96
Hedge bet	$1,296.00	1.59

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$1,296.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-1,296.00	$764.64
Combined wagers	$0.00	$664.64

I did not know Pitt was up to -170
Weren't they a lot lower after the 1st 2 games???

If the first 2 games would have paid 594 and Pitt was always -170 then I am 100% dead nuts wrong

For some reason I don't have the first 2 games paying out that much

[Optional]

I did not know Pitt was up to -170
Weren't they a lot lower after the 1st 2 games???

If the first 2 games would have paid 594 and Pitt was always -170 then I am 100% dead nuts wrong

For some reason I don't have the first 2 games paying out that much

Sorry, should have been -160

Which means he can achieve a profit of $439 if he fully hedged.

Yeah gotta take some advice from a couple good guys hedged
STRAIGHT BET
[354] PITTSBURGH -160

320.00 / 200.00

Still wanna get that payday with chargers but..if not I still won

[maggiethebestdog]

Sorry, should have been -160

Which means he can achieve a profit of $439 if he fully hedged.

This is my bad
I totally miscalculated the 2 team parlay odds
You guys were right and I'm a dumb ass

[TommieGunshot]

Yeah gotta take some advice from a couple good guys hedged
STRAIGHT BET
[354] PITTSBURGH -160
320.00 / 200.00
Still wanna get that payday with chargers but..if not I still won

If Pittsburgh wins you are +$100; if Los Angeles wins you win $975.

What would the results be if you just bet a two team parlay on Baltimore and New York, take your $100 profit, then bet the rest on LA?

Since so many here are unable to do this level math, I'll give you the answer:
You would be +$100 wth a Pittsburgh win, but +$1025 with a Chargers win

So anytime the underdog win, you lose $50 in value. Since the underdog wins more than 40% of the time, a hedge costs roughly $20. That might not seem like a lot, but 25% of all parlays are still going to be alive after the first two games. How could anyone possibly afford to give up $20 on one out of every four bets?

[BigPage28]

Quit being a bich and let that shi.t ride

[ans61201]

Good hedge. Actually like putting a little more on Steelers if you can get them as a live dog, but compared to what you’ve said your BR is in the past definitely wise decision.

[Optional]

@Maggie.


Just because it is an interesting comparison.

Here is why I say it is much better for the third leg of this sort of parlay to be on the favorite.


If he had taken the same bet but with Steelers -160 in the last leg, so was trying to hedge with Chargers +135 now, here is the difference.

Fully hedged profit would be $15 more, and cost $470 less to do.

Or he would win $92 more for a Chargers win than he is set up for now if he had hedged this bet for the same result as the real one. (although that would have needed $865 to do)


Hedging Strategies

A spectrum of hedging strategies exists, with three popular strategies shown below.

Unbiased strategy

This strategy aims to provide the same profit or loss regardless of the event outcome. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $410.64 on the opposing selection.
The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	+865
Hedge bet	$410.64	+135

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$865.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-410.64	$554.36
Combined wagers	$454.36	$454.36

Biased strategy towards original bet

This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the hedge bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $74.07 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection wins this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.
The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	+865
Hedge bet	$74.07	+135

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$865.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-74.07	$99.99
Combined wagers	$790.93	$-0.01

Biased strategy towards hedge bet

This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the original bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $865.00 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection loses this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	+865
Hedge bet	$865.00	+135

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$865.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-865.00	$1,167.75
Combined wagers	$0.00	$1,067.75

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

All great info I hedged 320$ to make a guaranteed 100$ profit but left most to ride the dawg into a 900$+ profit so I'm good ..I took this parlay as a shot because I was up a lot from last weekend and during the week.
If chargers win Fukk yeah
If Steelers win I'm up a hundo
Which is good
Thank you everyone for your input I appreciate it
Good Luck
Go Bolts!!!!!

[cincinnatikid513]

[2daBank]

Without Gordon I just have a hard time thinking this line isn’t just a tad short. I like the Chargers and all but minus their featured back not sure I’m ready to call them the Steelers equal which what line is suggesting.,really looking forward to game tho, should be a good 1.

[gauchojake]

Without Gordon I just have a hard time thinking this line isn’t just a tad short. I like the Chargers and all but minus their featured back not sure I’m ready to call them the Steelers equal which what line is suggesting.,really looking forward to game tho, should be a good 1.

Ekeler is a nice back. They have another kid who is pretty solid too.

[2daBank]

Ekeler is a nice back. They have another kid who is pretty solid too.

Yea he decent and adds another dimension as a change up from Gordon. Gordon is their horse tho and think they absolutely lose a little something without him.. I’d expect without Gordon Steelers pass rushers really pin their ears back.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Steelers defense is like swiss cheese though

[2daBank]

Steelers defense is like swiss cheese though

Not really, they can get after the qb.

[lakerboy]

Steelers defense is like swiss cheese though

Wrong. They have been one of the best since the early season bad start. All stats back that up

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Secondary

[GT21Megatron]

Steelers will win so I would hedge

[2daBank]

Secondary

Good pass rush helps a secondary greatly. No Gordon makes me think the pass rush gonna be coming after rivers. Fukk If I know tho pal, this nfl crap just digging into my ncaa hoops winnings. Fuk the nfl, lol.

[maggiethebestdog]

@Maggie.


Just because it is an interesting comparison.

Here is why I say it is much better for the third leg of this sort of parlay to be on the favorite.


If he had taken the same bet but with Steelers -160 in the last leg, so was trying to hedge with Chargers +135 now, here is the difference.

Fully hedged profit would be $15 more, and cost $470 less to do.

Or he would win $92 more for a Chargers win than he is set up for now if he had hedged this bet for the same result as the real one. (although that would have needed $865 to do)


Hedging Strategies

A spectrum of hedging strategies exists, with three popular strategies shown below.

Unbiased strategy

This strategy aims to provide the same profit or loss regardless of the event outcome. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $410.64 on the opposing selection.
The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	+865
Hedge bet	$410.64	+135

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$865.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-410.64	$554.36
Combined wagers	$454.36	$454.36

Biased strategy towards original bet

This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the hedge bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $74.07 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection wins this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.
The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	+865
Hedge bet	$74.07	+135

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$865.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-74.07	$99.99
Combined wagers	$790.93	$-0.01

Biased strategy towards hedge bet

This strategy aims for no profit or loss if the original bet wins. This is achieved by placing a hedge bet of $865.00 on the opposing selection.
If the original selection loses this strategy will provide a higher profit than the unbiased strategy.The strategy:

Original bet	$100.00	+865
Hedge bet	$865.00	+135

Profit / loss table:

Original bet	$865.00	$-100.00
Hedge bet	$-865.00	$1,167.75
Combined wagers	$0.00	$1,067.75

Everything I said was wrong
I totally miscalculated the 2 team parlay payout so I thought a hedge would be a better payout
I also didn't think the Pitt ML was that high so being the 3rd leg of the parlay wouldn't cost that much
Wrong, wrong and wronger
I wish I could tell you I was drunk or stoned, but this was just pure natural stupidity

[senseionline]

I never hedge 3 teamer but that just me , i would hedge live

best of luck just go what you feel like

[Itsamazing777]

Don't do that, Harry is legit as anyone on here pal. Just stop

How would you know
Youve been here less than 60 days
Unless your a ghost which we all know you are

[ThaTopMoron]

I have a 5 team teaser for +300 where i teased down all home favorites besides the buckeyes being neutral and the rams on road but coming off bye week

last leg is eagles +1 since i used 7 pts to get ohio state down to -9.5

i am not hedging

i won't even be watching.

redskins will win by 2 with a late game safety...

[cincinnatikid513]

hope u get a big 2nd half harry

[ForumvilleLoL]

How would you know
Youve been here less than 60 days
Unless your a ghost which we all know you are

I’m not a ghost, I’m reborn you fukk. Now go be a snitch & save the day.

[jjgold]

Hey been shaking all day

[DOM_Toretto]

Harryyyyyyyyyy

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Loving it

[DOM_Toretto]

Harrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[DOM_Toretto]

Rooting for you man

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Loving it more now

[QuantumLeap]

All great info I hedged 320$ to make a guaranteed 100$ profit but left most to ride the dawg into a 900$+ profit so I'm good ..I took this parlay as a shot because I was up a lot from last weekend and during the week.
If chargers win Fukk yeah
If Steelers win I'm up a hundo
Which is good
Thank you everyone for your input I appreciate it
Good Luck
Go Bolts!!!!!

Glad to see you won the football money today.

[ForumvilleLoL]

I swear, if pit wins 36-30 in overtime on its 1st possession. This is a penetrating roller coaster Cluster fukk

[ForumvilleLoL]

But that is sports betting for you. It’s 10 times worse in the NBA tho.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Fukkin killer win thanks for the info I only hedged 320 so I'm still winning big on this
Woohoo