[2daBank]

This seems like a absolute no brainer. Obviously not saying it can’t lose but to get this discounted price with 1.5 runs is a long term winning play as in it cashes well more than 53.5% of the time imo.

Gio has historically been excellent on 6+ days rest as he has had coming into this game. .613 win percentage w some absolute gems in those 44 games in this situation.

Gio has been fantastic vs the doyers in his career! 6 quality starts in 6 games, one 8 inning gem to go along with 5 starts of 6 innings never allowing more than 3 runs which has led to a 4-1 record and a marvelous 1.89 era in games vs lad.

Gio has been great for milw since joining them including a 3-1 mark w a 2.67 era in miller park this season.

Brewers and league mvp Christian Yelich has owed kershaw going 9 for 17 w a double and 2 bombs in 18 career at bats.,expect brewers to get a few runs off him!!

Assuming Gio can continue his stellar pitching vs lad going 6 strong innings we then get some of nastiest relievers in the league to close out the 7th-8th-9th!! There just no reasonable way you should expect dodgers to score more than 3 runs, 4 at the absolute max.,getting 1.5 runs in a game with a low total where we should expect a pitchers duel is incredibly valuable, much more so than the small -115 price we have to pay.

Anything can happen and often does in a 9 inning baseball game but this is absolutely a solid play that cashes far more often than the price suggest..

[2daBank]

Dodgers had a team ops of .774 in regular season good for 3rd best in baseball and best in the NL. Against lefties that dips to .733 good for 13th in league. In the braves series that dipped to a .550 ops against braves lefties while they clobbered atl righties for better than a .900 ops. Not only is gio obviously a lefty but the nastiest pen guy in baseball mr. hader is also a lefty!!

[PlayTheSpread]

I'm on it bro!

[2daBank]

I'm on it bro!

Admittedly I havnt been very good in these playoffs and in general I much prefer the regular season, that said milw games have helped me a great deal!! I have a brewers ws future I like as well. I think it be a good series and could certainly see a split in milw, wasn’t sure I was gonna be involved in game 1 but getting 1.5 at -115 just too good a play to pass up imo. Hope it works out for us!!

[2daBank]

Not much interest in this game? I’m always happy to hear thoughts of anyone who disagrees. Rather it be a well thought out response than meaningless gibberish about other side that helps no-one. That all I ask

[peteypab89]

as a brewer fan, i believe gio is going to allow base runners. only way he doesn't let up runs imo is if the dodgers strand runners & produce horrible AB with RISP. kershaw is kershaw, the brewers have had some success against him but i expect him to go 6 or 7 innings & hold the brewers to 3 or less

[Yankees28thTitle]

milWALKee

[lakerboy]

I took the ml

[MrSink]

I m going to stab also

[2daBank]

I took the ml

I like it too but since I have milw future and the +1.5 so cheap just liked going this route in gm 1. Certainly hope they win! I played the ml for betpoints, no cash.

[44 Mag]

milWALKee

I took the ml

I m going to stab also

Now you are doomed.....








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[2daBank]

as a brewer fan, i believe gio is going to allow base runners. only way he doesn't let up runs imo is if the dodgers strand runners & produce horrible AB with RISP. kershaw is kershaw, the brewers have had some success against him but i expect him to go 6 or 7 innings & hold the brewers to 3 or less

Fair enough. I suspect that milw starters will prob have more guys on bases this series than lad starters but think a lot of that is they will pitch around certain unfavorable matchups to get to guys they want, the fact milw starters know they only need to give their club 5ish strong innings allows them to not worry about pitch counts. Far as brew crew offense I agree 2-3 about what I expect for them tonight, just feel like that will cash the +1.5.

Note about kershaw. He doesn’t have great numbers with Scott berry who behind plate tonight.

[illyTheKid]

I’m a life long dodger homer and I’ll tell you I don’t feel good about this game. There are 3 Kershaws that could show up.

The 8 inning Kershaw we saw last outing
The Kershaw who gives up an early homer; couple runs, and the dodgers are digging out of a hole all game
The Kershaw that looks great then gives up 5 in the 6th. Lol

The tricky part is Gio gets smacked around at times too. Who blinks first?

i like the over just for the simple fact that either pitcher is capable of giving up a big inning.

[bryanoens]

With Gio's 4.78 playoff era and 2 weeks rest, I think rust will show and the Doyers hit him early. Goodluck but Doyers win 5-2

[BigDofBA]

I feel like Kershaw at -140 now is a steal.

I get it, books want you to take Dodgers. Blah blah blah.

I’m not going to overthink it. I’m taking LA and Kershaw. If it loses I’ll take the L.

[Shutup]

Hate the Dodgers and Kershaw GL

[BigDofBA]

-137 now. I guess I just wait a little longer and see if it keeps moving.

[Lee Jones]

I like the under 7.5 personally.

[2daBank]

I like the under 7.5 personally.

Read my mind. Just came on to post half unit on under 7 +113.. not interested in laying the juice on 7.5 so will risk a push.

[bryanoens]

I might regret my pick. Berryhorse on mil -1.5... game on

[2daBank]

-137 now. I guess I just wait a little longer and see if it keeps moving.

I would’nt have played it anything higher than -120ish. That jus little to pricey and forces it to cash at highly clip to profit. Maybe wait and see if lad scores 1st or after a brew crew at bat you can get cheaper live?

[KRIT]

Think I wait out game 1 and take the loser in game 2. Feel pretty strong on a split in the first two games.

[2daBank]

With Gio's 4.78 playoff era and 2 weeks rest, I think rust will show and the Doyers hit him early. Goodluck but Doyers win 5-2

Gio historically solid on extra rest.

[2daBank]

Think I wait out game 1 and take the loser in game 2. Feel pretty strong on a split in the first two games.

I was kinda leaning to waiting out game 1 as well but could not pass up the +1.5 at such a cheap price.

[kingdom]

Think I wait out game 1 and take the loser in game 2. Feel pretty strong on a split in the first two games.

agreed.

[JoeCool20]

Not much interest in this game? I’m always happy to hear thoughts of anyone who disagrees. Rather it be a well thought out response than meaningless gibberish about other side that helps no-one. That all I ask

I like the hell out of it. And I like the/your reasoning behind it too.

[2daBank]

I like the hell out of it. And I like the/your reasoning behind it too.

Thanks. The logic and play are absolutely sound, unfortunately doesn’t always mean it a winner, lol. Bottom line is at that price I would play it 100x in a row and strongly believe would come out ahead. All we can do is identify such games and get down on as many a possible!!

[2daBank]

I feel like Kershaw at -140 now is a steal.

I get it, books want you to take Dodgers. Blah blah blah.

I’m not going to overthink it. I’m taking LA and Kershaw. If it loses I’ll take the L.

Not a fan of either statement, hate when guys say “not gonna overthink it” as if thought and reasoning a bad thing. Also hate when someone says nonsense like they know who “books want you to take” as if the line has ever decided a game or is a indicator of who gonna win, as if linemakers magically know the outcome of a random sporting event.

What is the 1st 5 price for lad? I think if I liked them I’d be far more likely to play them -.5 ff, think they have to be leading after 5 to win games in this series.

[Lee Jones]

Read my mind. Just came on to post half unit on under 7 +113.. not interested in laying the juice on 7.5 so will risk a push.

Damn I just tried changing my bet to under 7 but game already started. Didn't even look at that angle. They got me at -120. Good thinking. Oh well gl to us both.

[2daBank]

Damn I just tried changing my bet to under 7 but game already started. Didn't even look at that angle. They got me at -120. Good thinking. Oh well gl to us both.

My buddy BiffT (if you go into the sub forums you prob know him) turned me on to this approach at the 1st of the season. I love totals and it has worked quite well as I hate laying anything more than -110 and much prefer even or plus money. Fact of the matter is it incredibly hard to hit at the rate required to profit paying extra juice but not so much if playing dogs and plus money totals so I been selling runs all season and has rarely cost me. Gl to you on this and all weekend!

[2daBank]

Sure would be nice to get a early run off kershaw!!

[pickle_texas]

Let’s go Brewers and over 7.5!!

[2daBank]

Dammit yelich. Good ab but man you gotta get that runner over to 3rd!!

[BigDofBA]

Not a fan of either statement, hate when guys say “not gonna overthink it” as if thought and reasoning a bad thing. Also hate when someone says nonsense like they know who “books want you to take” as if the line has ever decided a game or is a indicator of who gonna win, as if linemakers magically know the outcome of a random sporting event.

What is the 1st 5 price for lad? I think if I liked them I’d be far more likely to play them -.5 ff, think they have to be leading after 5 to win games in this series.

I guess if you want to know the honest truth, Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and I think the Dodgers have the better team. That’s why I took LA.

I don’t really care what statistic says taking +1.5 in this situation is no brainer. There are far more variables than that. Does the statistic assume Kershaw is the opposing pitcher every time? Probably not.

My brain tells me taking Kershaw against Gio at -135 is a no brainer.

That’s what I meant by not overthinking it.

We’ll see what happens. If it loses it loses. I won’t second guess myself. I get why some people like the Brewers. They’ve been the hottest team in baseball.

Also, I would say GL and root for you but I’m on LA so....

[trobin31]

Crazy brewers went to their pen this early in Pennant series, didn’t see that coming, Gio probably wants to choke them out