Brewers rl -115

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  • 2daBank
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-26-09
    • 88966

    #1
    Brewers rl -115
    This seems like a absolute no brainer. Obviously not saying it can’t lose but to get this discounted price with 1.5 runs is a long term winning play as in it cashes well more than 53.5% of the time imo.

    Gio has historically been excellent on 6+ days rest as he has had coming into this game. .613 win percentage w some absolute gems in those 44 games in this situation.

    Gio has been fantastic vs the doyers in his career! 6 quality starts in 6 games, one 8 inning gem to go along with 5 starts of 6 innings never allowing more than 3 runs which has led to a 4-1 record and a marvelous 1.89 era in games vs lad.

    Gio has been great for milw since joining them including a 3-1 mark w a 2.67 era in miller park this season.

    Brewers and league mvp Christian Yelich has owed kershaw going 9 for 17 w a double and 2 bombs in 18 career at bats.,expect brewers to get a few runs off him!!

    Assuming Gio can continue his stellar pitching vs lad going 6 strong innings we then get some of nastiest relievers in the league to close out the 7th-8th-9th!! There just no reasonable way you should expect dodgers to score more than 3 runs, 4 at the absolute max.,getting 1.5 runs in a game with a low total where we should expect a pitchers duel is incredibly valuable, much more so than the small -115 price we have to pay.

    Anything can happen and often does in a 9 inning baseball game but this is absolutely a solid play that cashes far more often than the price suggest..
  • 2daBank
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-26-09
    • 88966

    #2
    Dodgers had a team ops of .774 in regular season good for 3rd best in baseball and best in the NL. Against lefties that dips to .733 good for 13th in league. In the braves series that dipped to a .550 ops against braves lefties while they clobbered atl righties for better than a .900 ops. Not only is gio obviously a lefty but the nastiest pen guy in baseball mr. hader is also a lefty!!
    Comment
    • PlayTheSpread
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-05-11
      • 516

      #3
      I'm on it bro!
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #4
        Originally posted by PlayTheSpread
        I'm on it bro!
        Admittedly I havnt been very good in these playoffs and in general I much prefer the regular season, that said milw games have helped me a great deal!! I have a brewers ws future I like as well. I think it be a good series and could certainly see a split in milw, wasn’t sure I was gonna be involved in game 1 but getting 1.5 at -115 just too good a play to pass up imo. Hope it works out for us!!
        Comment
        • 2daBank
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-26-09
          • 88966

          #5
          Not much interest in this game? I’m always happy to hear thoughts of anyone who disagrees. Rather it be a well thought out response than meaningless gibberish about other side that helps no-one. That all I ask
          Comment
          • peteypab89
            SBR Hustler
            • 09-21-17
            • 81

            #6
            as a brewer fan, i believe gio is going to allow base runners. only way he doesn't let up runs imo is if the dodgers strand runners & produce horrible AB with RISP. kershaw is kershaw, the brewers have had some success against him but i expect him to go 6 or 7 innings & hold the brewers to 3 or less
            Comment
            • Yankees28thTitle
              SBR Rookie
              • 09-26-18
              • 34

              #7
              milWALKee
              Comment
              • lakerboy
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 04-02-09
                • 94379

                #8
                I took the ml
                Comment
                • MrSink
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-30-08
                  • 8087

                  #9
                  I m going to stab also
                  Comment
                  • 2daBank
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-26-09
                    • 88966

                    #10
                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                    I took the ml
                    I like it too but since I have milw future and the +1.5 so cheap just liked going this route in gm 1. Certainly hope they win! I played the ml for betpoints, no cash.
                    Comment
                    • 44 Mag
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 10-14-13
                      • 34490

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Yankees28thTitle
                      milWALKee
                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                      I took the ml
                      Originally posted by MrSink
                      I m going to stab also
                      Now you are doomed.....
                      <br>
                      <br>
                      <br>
                      <br>
                      &lt;br&gt;<br>
                      &lt;br&gt;<br>
                      Comment
                      • 2daBank
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 88966

                        #12
                        Originally posted by peteypab89
                        as a brewer fan, i believe gio is going to allow base runners. only way he doesn't let up runs imo is if the dodgers strand runners & produce horrible AB with RISP. kershaw is kershaw, the brewers have had some success against him but i expect him to go 6 or 7 innings & hold the brewers to 3 or less
                        Fair enough. I suspect that milw starters will prob have more guys on bases this series than lad starters but think a lot of that is they will pitch around certain unfavorable matchups to get to guys they want, the fact milw starters know they only need to give their club 5ish strong innings allows them to not worry about pitch counts. Far as brew crew offense I agree 2-3 about what I expect for them tonight, just feel like that will cash the +1.5.

                        Note about kershaw. He doesn’t have great numbers with Scott berry who behind plate tonight.
                        Comment
                        • illyTheKid
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-04-18
                          • 156

                          #13
                          I’m a life long dodger homer and I’ll tell you I don’t feel good about this game. There are 3 Kershaws that could show up.

                          The 8 inning Kershaw we saw last outing
                          The Kershaw who gives up an early homer; couple runs, and the dodgers are digging out of a hole all game
                          The Kershaw that looks great then gives up 5 in the 6th. Lol

                          The tricky part is Gio gets smacked around at times too. Who blinks first?

                          i like the over just for the simple fact that either pitcher is capable of giving up a big inning.
                          Comment
                          • bryanoens
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 09-28-12
                            • 224

                            #14
                            With Gio's 4.78 playoff era and 2 weeks rest, I think rust will show and the Doyers hit him early. Goodluck but Doyers win 5-2
                            Comment
                            • BigDofBA
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 09-30-09
                              • 19313

                              #15
                              I feel like Kershaw at -140 now is a steal.

                              I get it, books want you to take Dodgers. Blah blah blah.

                              I’m not going to overthink it. I’m taking LA and Kershaw. If it loses I’ll take the L.
                              Comment
                              • Shutup
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-15-17
                                • 2435

                                #16
                                Hate the Dodgers and Kershaw GL
                                Comment
                                • BigDofBA
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 09-30-09
                                  • 19313

                                  #17
                                  -137 now. I guess I just wait a little longer and see if it keeps moving.
                                  Comment
                                  • Lee Jones
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-14-08
                                    • 459

                                    #18
                                    I like the under 7.5 personally.
                                    Comment
                                    • 2daBank
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-26-09
                                      • 88966

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Lee Jones
                                      I like the under 7.5 personally.
                                      Read my mind. Just came on to post half unit on under 7 +113.. not interested in laying the juice on 7.5 so will risk a push.
                                      Comment
                                      • bryanoens
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 09-28-12
                                        • 224

                                        #20
                                        I might regret my pick. Berryhorse on mil -1.5... game on
                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BigDofBA
                                          -137 now. I guess I just wait a little longer and see if it keeps moving.
                                          I would’nt have played it anything higher than -120ish. That jus little to pricey and forces it to cash at highly clip to profit. Maybe wait and see if lad scores 1st or after a brew crew at bat you can get cheaper live?
                                          Comment
                                          • KRIT
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-11-14
                                            • 12878

                                            #22
                                            Think I wait out game 1 and take the loser in game 2. Feel pretty strong on a split in the first two games.
                                            Comment
                                            • 2daBank
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-26-09
                                              • 88966

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by bryanoens
                                              With Gio's 4.78 playoff era and 2 weeks rest, I think rust will show and the Doyers hit him early. Goodluck but Doyers win 5-2
                                              Gio historically solid on extra rest.
                                              Comment
                                              • 2daBank
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-26-09
                                                • 88966

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by KRIT
                                                Think I wait out game 1 and take the loser in game 2. Feel pretty strong on a split in the first two games.
                                                I was kinda leaning to waiting out game 1 as well but could not pass up the +1.5 at such a cheap price.
                                                Comment
                                                • kingdom
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 07-25-10
                                                  • 10099

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by KRIT
                                                  Think I wait out game 1 and take the loser in game 2. Feel pretty strong on a split in the first two games.
                                                  agreed.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JoeCool20
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-31-18
                                                    • 4440

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                    Not much interest in this game? I’m always happy to hear thoughts of anyone who disagrees. Rather it be a well thought out response than meaningless gibberish about other side that helps no-one. That all I ask





                                                    I like the hell out of it. And I like the/your reasoning behind it too.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 2daBank
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                      • 88966

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JoeCool20
                                                      I like the hell out of it. And I like the/your reasoning behind it too.
                                                      Thanks. The logic and play are absolutely sound, unfortunately doesn’t always mean it a winner, lol. Bottom line is at that price I would play it 100x in a row and strongly believe would come out ahead. All we can do is identify such games and get down on as many a possible!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • 2daBank
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-26-09
                                                        • 88966

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by BigDofBA
                                                        I feel like Kershaw at -140 now is a steal.

                                                        I get it, books want you to take Dodgers. Blah blah blah.

                                                        I’m not going to overthink it. I’m taking LA and Kershaw. If it loses I’ll take the L.
                                                        Not a fan of either statement, hate when guys say “not gonna overthink it” as if thought and reasoning a bad thing. Also hate when someone says nonsense like they know who “books want you to take” as if the line has ever decided a game or is a indicator of who gonna win, as if linemakers magically know the outcome of a random sporting event.

                                                        What is the 1st 5 price for lad? I think if I liked them I’d be far more likely to play them -.5 ff, think they have to be leading after 5 to win games in this series.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Lee Jones
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 12-14-08
                                                          • 459

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                          Read my mind. Just came on to post half unit on under 7 +113.. not interested in laying the juice on 7.5 so will risk a push.
                                                          Damn I just tried changing my bet to under 7 but game already started. Didn't even look at that angle. They got me at -120. Good thinking. Oh well gl to us both.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 2daBank
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-26-09
                                                            • 88966

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Lee Jones
                                                            Damn I just tried changing my bet to under 7 but game already started. Didn't even look at that angle. They got me at -120. Good thinking. Oh well gl to us both.
                                                            My buddy BiffT (if you go into the sub forums you prob know him) turned me on to this approach at the 1st of the season. I love totals and it has worked quite well as I hate laying anything more than -110 and much prefer even or plus money. Fact of the matter is it incredibly hard to hit at the rate required to profit paying extra juice but not so much if playing dogs and plus money totals so I been selling runs all season and has rarely cost me. Gl to you on this and all weekend!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 2daBank
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-26-09
                                                              • 88966

                                                              #31
                                                              Sure would be nice to get a early run off kershaw!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • pickle_texas
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 10-26-16
                                                                • 750

                                                                #32
                                                                Let’s go Brewers and over 7.5!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 2daBank
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-26-09
                                                                  • 88966

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Dammit yelich. Good ab but man you gotta get that runner over to 3rd!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BigDofBA
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 09-30-09
                                                                    • 19313

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                    Not a fan of either statement, hate when guys say “not gonna overthink it” as if thought and reasoning a bad thing. Also hate when someone says nonsense like they know who “books want you to take” as if the line has ever decided a game or is a indicator of who gonna win, as if linemakers magically know the outcome of a random sporting event.

                                                                    What is the 1st 5 price for lad? I think if I liked them I’d be far more likely to play them -.5 ff, think they have to be leading after 5 to win games in this series.
                                                                    I guess if you want to know the honest truth, Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and I think the Dodgers have the better team. That’s why I took LA.

                                                                    I don’t really care what statistic says taking +1.5 in this situation is no brainer. There are far more variables than that. Does the statistic assume Kershaw is the opposing pitcher every time? Probably not.

                                                                    My brain tells me taking Kershaw against Gio at -135 is a no brainer.

                                                                    That’s what I meant by not overthinking it.

                                                                    We’ll see what happens. If it loses it loses. I won’t second guess myself. I get why some people like the Brewers. They’ve been the hottest team in baseball.

                                                                    Also, I would say GL and root for you but I’m on LA so....
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • trobin31
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 01-09-14
                                                                      • 9853

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Crazy brewers went to their pen this early in Pennant series, didn’t see that coming, Gio probably wants to choke them out
                                                                      Comment
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