You guys not as good as you think handicapping

**jts1207** · 08-10-18, 10:17 AM

Post the proof JJ

**jjgold** · 08-10-18, 10:22 AM

No way

**cincinnatikid513** · 08-10-18, 10:24 AM

jj can u be positive one day out of the year

thanks

**mpaschal34** · 08-10-18, 10:28 AM

Just because I can’t get 2 winners in a row with -200 teams.

Yes I suck.

**shari91** · 08-10-18, 10:32 AM

Sir Doom and Gloom.

Although your fluke arse finally got one right this time.

**TheMoneyShot** · 08-10-18, 10:49 AM

JJ tells us we suck in this thread....

and in this thread... he says we're HOT.

2nd shift JJ and 3rd shift JJ not on the same page.

**jjgold** · 08-10-18, 11:12 AM

Hot does not mean good

Huge difference

Hot guessing right we hope it continues

I cannot mislead posters

**capitalist pig** · 08-10-18, 11:20 AM

I’m like a 52% winner, lucky to break even in the long term. Never even considered myself to being a good handicapper, but I try to have fun with it

later

**JIBBBY** · 08-10-18, 11:24 AM

I've been very hit and miss all week also. JJ is onto something.. I need to cap my shiiit harder.. Pay attention to detail more..

Wake up call!!!!

**jjgold** · 08-10-18, 11:28 AM

Let’s have fun

**KVB** · 08-10-18, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Hot does not mean good

Huge difference

Hot guessing right we hope it continues

I cannot mislead posters

Correct.

There is a difference between being hot and not being as good as it seems.

There are metrics to assess a player now and going forward.

It can be misleading, especially over a short set of examples.

Closing line value is one that is used but it won't be a very good metric against my MLB Contrarian Fund because of the style of decision making. In that case, we see dollars gained as one metric over many years.

But it can be the opposite for closing values, where you aren't such a hot capper, but may be better than it looks.

For example, right now I am about even over 14 CFL plays but have beaten the closing line in every game with one line closing where it opened.

That's a pretty extreme market status and, if it were to keep up, would surely result in profit over the CFL markets.

Another gauge I have posted about with examples is the average line error of of your predictions compared to the book's average error.

This is another good metric and bettors should aim to have less average line error, this implies they are creating a line that is more in tune with and better reflects reality than the marketplace can hang.

If you are doing this regularly over a large number of plays, you have a good chance of beating the market.

**jjgold** · 08-10-18, 12:10 PM

KVB I know what I am talking about, it has nothing to do with being negative

I am a realist

**KVB** · 08-10-18, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

KVB I know what I am talking about, it has nothing to do with being negative

I am a realist

Yes Gold, I am supporting your thread and idea here.

I agree that you know, but I am not sure you actually tallied everyone's plays.

But what do I know.

Let's crash the bash Gold!

**KVB** · 08-10-18, 12:14 PM

...You moving markets, Gold?

**biggie12** · 08-10-18, 12:34 PM

JJ shall we have a $1000 H2H NFL CONTEST THIS YEAR?

**sourtwist** · 08-10-18, 01:32 PM

Jj...

Teach me how to handicap

I'll teach you how to dougie

**Chi_archie** · 08-10-18, 01:40 PM

true

**jjgold** · 08-10-18, 03:17 PM

Nobody knows had a handicap I’ve been saying it for years it’s all random, the only people that win are arbors abd hedgers because it’s close to risk-free

Everybody has good run but eventually they lose it all back and 10 times more

**Louisvillekid1** · 08-10-18, 03:38 PM

I Totally agree , JJ

you are handicapped

**KVB** · 08-10-18, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Nobody knows had a handicap I’ve been saying it for years it’s all random, the only people that win are arbors abd hedgers because it’s close to risk-free

Everybody has good run but eventually they lose it all back and 10 times more

It takes an understanding of why it is that runs come and go. It takes the ability to flow with the markets as money shifts between betting strategies.

It takes the big picture understanding and knowledge of the psychology behind why it is the bettors lose, outside of the vig.

There a reasons and they can be mitigated and even countered.

**2daBank** · 08-10-18, 04:10 PM

I’m not sure how good I think I am so tough to say. I know I profit 1st half of every baseball season but I also know I don’t bet much after asb cause i mostly just give some winnings back. At this point I’m
Just following cards and mostly only betting their Games. Great series to chase cards for 1 win, personally I’m looking to get 2 wins as their pitching really bringing it and strongly believe they bout to win their 5 series in a row now with a capable manager.

**jjgold** · 08-10-18, 04:24 PM

Sometimes I wonder is it better just to make decent size wagers on team wins before the season starts and you have action all year

**KVB** · 08-10-18, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Sometimes I wonder is it better just to make decent size wagers on team wins before the season starts and you have action all year

Yeah, I hear that, and for the most part it can work.

But when I look at the markets in front of me, those future are so far off and so many things can change.

It's best to try to control as much as you can have control of and lessen the intangibles, that way, when the uncontrollable bites, you aren't as affected.

**Louisvillekid1** · 08-10-18, 07:18 PM

Flaud thread

we don’t bet to win

we bet for Action

cuz life is boring

**thechaoz** · 08-10-18, 10:09 PM

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-10-18, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

All our office people kkow it too
We run analytics

Tell more, JJ.

Do the sheets say that House is cleaning up?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-10-18, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Flaud thread

we don’t bet to win

we bet for Action

cuz life is boring

Bump. Bible-speech from Church of Lkid1.