Tour de France

**jjgold** · 07-23-18, 05:10 AM

Nobody watches that in the USA pal

Its a steroid riddled sport so a laughable event

Who you on

**semibluff** · 07-23-18, 05:20 AM

It's something books don't really understand. They see Dumoulin close on the leaderboard and they 'assume' he has a fair and equal chance. That just isn't the case when you're fighting 2 guys from the same team. I wouldn't bet him at +900. He's generally +600 but I think he's genuinely a +1200 chance on a true 100% book with 0 juice. If you can get the best price +110 @ Thomas and +150 @ Froome you'd be betting 87.62% to cover 92.31% of the probabilities. This of course excludes any weird outside event that brings someone else into play. I wouldn't take Roglic at +8000 or Bardet at +12500. Books are too short on them as well which is why have the overall target % on the sportsbook as a whole but in 'my perceived' reality they're overbroke laying the top 2 guys.

Thomas has to be favourite at this point. I think he's probably better than a 48% vs 40 % favourite over Froome. If I was betting just 1 i'd bet him, but I see the Tour de France right now as arbitrage to be honest.

**shari91** · 07-23-18, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Nobody watches that in the USA pal

Its a steroid riddled sport so a laughable event

Who you on

Don't be a pain in the butt. This is a massive sport for many bettors.

**Poisec** · 07-23-18, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by semibluff

It's something books don't really understand. They see Dumoulin close on the leaderboard and they 'assume' he has a fair and equal chance. That just isn't the case when you're fighting 2 guys from the same team. I wouldn't bet him at +900. He's generally +600 but I think he's genuinely a +1200 chance on a true 100% book with 0 juice. If you can get the best price +110 @ Thomas and +150 @ Froome you'd be betting 87.62% to cover 92.31% of the probabilities. This of course excludes any weird outside event that brings someone else into play. I wouldn't take Roglic at +8000 or Bardet at +12500. Books are too short on them as well which is why have the overall target % on the sportsbook as a whole but in 'my perceived' reality they're overbroke laying the top 2 guys.

Thomas has to be favourite at this point. I think he's probably better than a 48% vs 40 % favourite over Froome. If I was betting just 1 i'd bet him, but I see the Tour de France right now as arbitrage to be honest.

Thanks for your input,
I actually use a broker to get Betfair odds so I can bet against Dumoulin, for the equivalent of -1000 (which is 1.10 in decimal odds).
Many say Dumoulin is very strong though, but like you said Froome and Thomas are in the same team...

**semibluff** · 07-25-18, 01:34 PM

After today's stage it's pretty much over barring a crash for Thomas. Stage 18 is a flat stage that offers no General Classification opportunities. It'll be a breakaway, (probably for French riders on French teams), or a bunch sprint. Stage 19 is the last mountain stage. However, the 2nd mountain is the only 1 that'll bother the top riders and there's a long way after that for anyone who doesn't attack to be lead back by a pacemaker. The 3rd and 4th mountains aren't hard enough to hurt the top 4 riders and there's a 20KM downhill finish, (which might be the only danger for Thomas). Stage 20 is the time trial, but it's only 31KM. Barring crashes there's really only about 20 seconds up for grabs. Then it's the victory roll into Paris. Thomas is generally -800, (-600 with 1 book), but he's really -2000 at this point.

**Poisec** · 07-26-18, 03:18 AM

Yep -700 where I bet, and Froome is done so Thomas is a lock now.
Happy for Quintana, great performance yesterday.