Whats good fellas? So I've been firing away at unders for the last couple weeks, and hitting them at a pretty huge clip. I'm actually 15-4 in the last 2+ weeks.
So I just noticed today that pretty much every line is way too low. I'm thinking my bookie has lowered the totals, and even juiced the under on those lower totals.
Here are a few examples:
Seattle at Detroit
I show a total of 9 on every book on my 1st page of SBR Odds, with the Under juiced
My local has a line of 8, with EV on the over
Tampa at Baltimore I show a total of 9 on every book on my 1st page of SBR Odds, with the Under juiced.
My local has a line of 8, with -105 on the over
Texas at Houston I show a total of 8.5 on every book on my 1st page of SBR Odds, with the exception of one 8, Under is juiced
My local has a line of 7.5, with -105 on the over
St. Louis at San Diego I show a total of 8 on every book on my 1st page of SBR Odds.
My local has a line of 7.5, with EV on the over
He's definately trying to get me off of these under's isn't he? Should I pound some of these overs?
I dont know for sure.....but it seems coincidental that Ive been hammering unders on him, and then most of the games were 1 or 1.5 lower then anywhere I could find. I actually had a 2-0-2 night, because I also took the Jays/Sox under 8. That was the concensus line, and I liked the matchup.
A few more I'd normally never bet, but feel I have to.
5dimes has Oakland/Boston O/U set at 10 (+100, -110). I can get Over 8.5 at +105. I pay less juice, and a 9 or 10 gets me a win instead of a loss or push.
5dimes has Baltimore/Philly O/U set at 10.5 (+100, -110) I can get Over Over 8.5 at -120. Sure I pay 20 cents more, but now a 9 or a 10 gets me a win instead of a loss. I'll happily pay 20 cents juice to get 2 more runs.
Seems he is doing this on the larger O/U's each night......usually the games I like to go under on.
NY Yankees/Texas OVER 8.5 @ -115. I'm seeing Over 8.5 on 5d @ -160, so a 45 cent difference.
Baltimore/Chi WHite Sox OVER 8 @ -125. I'm seeing Over 8 on 5d @ -168, so a 43 cent difference.
As long as he keeps throwing these my way, I gotta keep hitting them. Just wish a few more would hit, lol
1-1....but lost a decent amount of juice on the Baltimore/White Sox game.
Today, I have compared all of the totals, and every single one matches up with 5d, with the juice within 15 cents in every case. Let's see if something changes later this afternoon.
So he's up to his tricks...he stopped moving lines once I started taking a few over.......and now I've been crushing unders again the last 2 weeks.
So I noticed so movements today:
I'm showing CHW/Min Under 9 at -127 on 5d.......I'm seeing all 9's and 8.5's across the board, with the under juiced. My local has the total at 8, but has the Over juiced at +110......have to pound the f out of that one.
He also moved Bos/Det down to 8.5 where I see 9.5 everywhere. Balt/Toronto is at 8.5, and I'm showing 9.5 everywhere.
Time to jump on some overs today!
Im not gonna say....but lets just say I cleaned his a$$ today!! 3-0, and hit them all pretty hard. Looks like there is a shot they all land on 9, which would have been 2 losses and a push had he just left it alone. Cheers boys!!
if your guy knew what he was doing he would only move the line a 1/2 run or keep it the same and just juice the shit out of it for you. moving baseball totals a full run or better is a rookie move and not very smart.
We've got some more fun today. Collected ALOT over the past few weeks, primarily picking unders! Guess my guy isnt happy, and started shifting lines again.....so here is what we got tonight.
Detroit @ Kansas City OVER 8.5 @ -110. I'm seeing this Over at 10 everywhere and juiced at 10.....most likely moving to 10.5 soon! Over 9 at 5d is at -185.....so, what would Over 8.5 be? -220 or so, maybe more? I'm getting over a dollar of value here.
Oakland @ Texas OVER 9 @ -110. I'm seeing this Over at 10.5 or 11 across the board. I see 9.5 at 5d, at -143......so I'm assuming live line will be around -180 or so prior to 1st pitch. I'm getting about 70 cents of value here.
St. Louis @ Cincinnati OVER 8.5 @ -105. I'm seeing this Over at 9.5 across the board. Over 8.5 at 5d is at -160...so 55 cents of value.
I hope this doesn't come back to burn my a$$.....but I'm going to be risking quite a bit tonight on these lines. Again, I hate taking overs in MLB games, but the price is forcing my hand, and forcing my hand at a heavy price....gotta try and take advantage of these opportunities....only way you have a chance in this game!
Holy hell , he's basically betting himself moving the lines that much , those are major adjustments .....Half run , understandable but 1.5 is nuts .
And seems he's dumb enough not to simply adjust to the even number as well , 10.5 to 10 , so as to push instead of losses .
Can I get a number ? Haha
My locals I use in NCAAF adjust SEC but very small unless Bama since I'm sure he takes 90/10 on Bama weekly .
I'll hit the dog when he shifts -6 to a 7.5
It's crazy.......and I've noticed that once he makes that initial adjustment, the line or juice doesn't move.......almost pigeonholes himself. I know the price and line had to have moved during the day, but nothing moved the entire day. There were also a few others were I had between 20 and 40 cents of value, but I'm not trying to make 5 plays a day. Just go a bit bigger on the best plays.
Fired 2 units on Det/KC Over, 1.6 units on Oak/Tex Over and 1.2 units on STL/Cin Over.
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