1. #1
    Lavarball
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    MLB Season Win Total Lagre Bet

    There is a Guy On Covers MLB forum who has a season win Total record of 16-1 since 2007 This Year he has taken Seattle mariners Over 82.5 Do We Fade or Follow

  2. #2
    AndyVip
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lavarball View Post
    There is a Guy On Covers MLB forum who has a season win Total record of 16-1 since 2007 This Year he has taken Seattle mariners Over 82.5 Do We Fade or Follow
    But 2007 was just 11 years ago how does he have a 16-1 record since 07?

  3. #3
    Mackballs
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyVip View Post
    But 2007 was just 11 years ago how does he have a 16-1 record since 07?
    You gotta be joking, right?

  4. #4
    nyplayer33
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    Joking about ?? If that's his record then bet it. But it's a bet that won't be graded till end of year

  5. #5
    Lavarball
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    Andy some years he takes more then one team

  6. #6
    Hman
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    All documented?

  7. #7
    nyplayer33
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    Yes documented

  8. #8
    Lavarball
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    Hman yes

  9. #9
    Hman
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    Why wouldn't we follow then

  10. #10
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    Why wouldn't we follow then
    Well for starters the guy is already going back on his play

    I went and checked it out , had to take a shower after leaving that dirty slum whore of a forum

    but I canít say Iím 16-1 , but Iíve never had a losing season on these

    and imo there are safer plays than this. A lot has to go right for this play to hit

    Those teams are pretty stacked in their division and AL .

    Mariners won like 76 last year even though most of their players had career years

    or slightly better than normal years .....something is off with Cruz already

    Cano just came up lame on sprints (might just be hammy though)

    but he isnt getting any younger as it is . King Felix is more like Queen Felicia

    these days even though he is only like 32 he has pitched a shit ton of innings in his career

    plus heís starting the year hurt just as 2 or 3 other players I havenít mentioned

    Now if this was the only play you had to make , the over or under in Mariners

    gun to head and forced id prolly take the over 82

    but once again I believe there are better options out there

    good lick if you do tail and 16-1 is more than impressive

  11. #11
    cincinnatikid513
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    i wouldnt trust the mariners and that pitching staff

  12. #12
    ikid2groove415
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    You can also die before this kinda bets are official

  13. #13
    jjgold
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    pass

  14. #14
    crackerjack
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    I really enjoy capping the over unders for team totals. But I hardly every bet them because your money is tied up for six months. How much of your bankroll do you want tied up? If I didn't bet daily or was doing it to make money, then I'd go for it...make five or so big bets on these totals. As it is, I'd rather just have fun with my cash and try to roll it over four or five times throughout the season rather than possibly get one payout in six months. I'd also only take unders. Too many bad things can happen over the course of a season to ruin an over bet.

  15. #15
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Tough to find a under this year man
    lines are sharp as usual of course
    kinda like Royals under 71
    but fukk within the last week they have signed Moustakas and Lucas Duda
    Combined last year for like 75 homers
    ughhhh , hell whats nuts is possibly the Mariners under might be a good bet

    Going to lock in a over wager on Nationals over 93
    while it’s where it is on one of my books
    because on the other 3 books the line is 93.5
    with more juice so I don’t see it getting better than 93

  16. #16
    Ralphie Halves
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    I just got the release from ClearDataSports, and he's like 11-2 in the last two years with win total bets. Big time sabremetrics guy, but has his own complex method, it's cool to watch. Brilliant mind.

    And I'll spoil it for you, he also has SEA OVR and KC UND.

    I'll post the rest tonight or tomorrow.

  17. #17
    Ralphie Halves
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    I don't want the whole world seeing it, so I'll just put them up on this thread.

  18. #18
    ikid2groove415
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    Seattle been hype up the last few years and haven’t produced the wins !!

  19. #19
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Man Ralphie , see fukking told u that KC under was sharp
    but idk now, resigning Moose at 3rd and Duda at first is a bet changer
    i might not play the under now , that’s a lot of power production they picked up fast

  20. #20
    Ralphie Halves
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    This guy has been lightning on win totals the past few years. Had overs on AZ, NY, LAD, Cle last year, and they all flew over. Had an UND on Philly and it went way under. The only loss was Oakland under, and it lost by a game. I was on it. It sucked, Oakland made a sick run at the end.

    So I'll put the 2018 totals here, and then go over them in the next post. Just a quick list....


    3 units Colorado UND 81.5 +120
    3 units Seattle OVR 81.5 +100
    3 units St Louis OVR 86.5 -135
    2 units Royals UND 69 +105
    2 units Phillies OVR 77** -140
    1 unit Rangers UND 76.5 -110
    1 unit Brewers UND 84.5 -115

    Updates as of 3/14. More updates coming apparently.

  21. #21
    Ralphie Halves
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    - I think the odds on the line factor in a lot with him, because two of his top plays were not the teams he had the most discrepancy on wins

    - I'll put his reasons why below. He also factors in defense, but did not here for whatever reason. The ratings are based on his own projections. My thoughts in italics.

    Colorado


    Line - 81.5
    Projected - 76.3

    Starters - 9th out of 15 (NL)
    Offense - 11 out of 15
    Bullpen - 6 out of 15

    Key Note: When adjusting for the park, the offense is projected to be below average.

    And that's all he said. I'm not on this. Did not convince me enough. A top play, but only 5 games apart? I think he was just in love with the + number he was getting

    Seattle

    Line - 81.5
    Projected - 90.7

    Starters - 6th of 15 (AL)
    Offense - 2nd of 15
    Bullpen - 6th of 15

    Key Note: Mashing offense solid defense, quality bullpen, servicable starters

    Looking at the depth chart, I don't see it, but I've been wrong to doubt this guy before. 9 wins off? I'm in. 81.5 was hard to find now though. Had to go -125 at 5D.

    St Louis

    Line - 86.5
    Projected - 93.1

    Starters - 6th of 15
    Offense - 2nd of 15
    Bullben - 4th of 15

    Key Note: Mashing offense, solid bullpen, quality starters 1-5

    As a cards fan, I do....not....get this one. I really HOPE he's right, but quality starters 1-5?? They don't even know who the 4th and 5th starters are going to be! They're hoping two of their 2014 1st rounders can step up, then this Myles Mikolas guy who I've never even heard of. Wainwright at this point in his career is anything but a given. I will probably play this, but will wait and see if the line goes down a bit.

    Royals

    Line - 69
    Projection - 60.9

    Starters - 13th of 15
    Offense - 15th of 15
    Bullpen - 14th of 15

    Key Note: Awful in every category and trying to lose.

    And this came out after the Moose and Duda signings, so there's what he still thinks of KC, Fidel. I think this opened at 74, got bet down hard, and he's still 8 games lower than the current line. Got this one on 5D at UND 70 wins -125. Boo Ya!!

    Phillies

    Line - 77**
    Projected - 83.9

    Starters - 7th of 15
    Offense - 6th of 15
    Bullpen - 2nd of 15

    Key Note: Solid overall team in all 3 aspects, great pen.

    I put the asterisks there because there's no way you're getting 77 anymore. He had this up before they signed Arrieta. Nothing but 78.5s and above, which would still make it a decent play, but not my top priority right now. Plus, Philly was really bad last year, hard to see 18 more wins, but he did nail it with AZ last year, so who knows. This was very suspect. Could have been before I joined, but it looked like he got on a stale line and just bet this recently. Not fair of me to say though.

    Rangers

    Line - 76.5
    Projected - 69.6

    Starters - 14th of 15
    Offense - 10th of 15
    Bullpen - 12th of 15

    Key Note: Well below average in every category and brutal division opponents.

    They look a bit stronger than that to me, but I definitely popped on this one. Was shocked to see 77.5 at Stations, so jumped on it, even though it was at -145. Maybe not a smart move math-wise, but couldn't resist a full game better than what I saw everywhere else.

    Brewers

    Line - 84.5
    Projected - 78.7

    Starters - 14h of 15
    Offense - 8th of 15
    Bullpen - 3rd of 15

    Key Note: Solid Bullpen, but Starting pitching could really hurt them in a tough ballpark.

    Not really convinced here. I do think they punched above their weight last year, but I also think it's because their coaching staff is fantastic.


    Side note -- the highest discrepancy he has that isn't a bet yet is Cubs UND 93.5 wins. He has projected 87.7.

  22. #22
    Ralphie Halves
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    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    I really enjoy capping the over unders for team totals. But I hardly every bet them because your money is tied up for six months. How much of your bankroll do you want tied up? If I didn't bet daily or was doing it to make money, then I'd go for it...make five or so big bets on these totals. As it is, I'd rather just have fun with my cash and try to roll it over four or five times throughout the season rather than possibly get one payout in six months. I'd also only take unders. Too many bad things can happen over the course of a season to ruin an over bet.
    I don't bet baseball because I'm no good at it, so I find a guy who's good on win totals, tail him, go big, and then between that and my fantasy team, I always have something to root for. It was exciting and relaxing all at the same time last year! Highly recommended.

  23. #23
    darrell74
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    Good read Ralph

  24. #24
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Thanks Ralph ,this year it’s very strange with the totals

    I’m shocked he still loves the Royals under after the production signings

    especially at the bad number he got , I can get under 70.5 (-115)

    Glad to see you are a Cards fan as well Ralphie , and we agree there too

    There is zero value in the Cards line that high, I used to write 7 paragraph fukking essays

    here at sbr on my reasonings but just don’t have it in me anymore to spend that

    much time on something most didn’t even listen to . But anyways, every damn thing would

    have to go right for Cards to eclipse that amount he thinks will win . I like the team this year

    but the central is no joke , even the Reds have a deadly lineup , and I mean deadly lineup

    Brew Crew undoubtedly better, Cubs gonna Cub , Pirates a bit weak but will be scrappy

    I can ever get Cards at over 85.5 and not taking it

    Only bet I have locked in so far is Nationals over 93

    keep waiting for lines to move in all 4 of my books but looks like they are staying pat now

    I can also get Phil’s over 77.5 btw still

  25. #25
    ikid2groove415
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    Rangers pitching rotation is hideous- they will lose close to 100 games - maybe finish last in the AL West

  26. #26
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    buddy I been lookin over every damn team in more ways than you can imagine

    and unders are just hard to find using my methodology anyways that is

    I really look at these from so many angles and everytime something gives me that

    mehhhhh type feel on choosing a under. So pissed I didnt jump on the Royals line earlier before it went down

    Pissed I didnt hit the Nationals line when it was at 91 , there were better lines at first but I slept on them

    since I have 4 dif books , thinking I would notice what way the movement was going before all would change

    and the changes almost all happenned at once at each book . My own competitive juices kick in on these season

    wins bets as I take pride in never taking a loss for the year over a 6 year period .... so I cant stress enough how

    serious I take these, especially since money is tied up for so long .

    They are the most enjoyable bets imo though and in MLB especially ,

    it can be hard to tell with a grueling 162 game season just how serious a team will play day to day betting

    so these can be great when you combine all factors and dont overplay your hand / bet too many .

    Ive noticed 4-6 bets is the best and never have more than 4 overs ,

    and that has nothing to do with variance but because of injuries ,

    which you simply just cannot call . So in my response to you on the unders, I wish more stood out this year
    but ill be damned if there is not something im noticing on most unders that momentarily stick out to me

    . Imma keep lookin though if anyone cares and will post a few of my plays before season starts.

  27. #27
    ikid2groove415
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    Take Atlanta win totals - they will be solid

  28. #28
    RudyRuetigger
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    I'm not reading thread

    If it's true he's 16-1, then I tail

  29. #29
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Yeah that record is unheard of

    but I do believe it’s true

    Guess I’m stubborn and this is why I never fail

    I have a guy that’s 16-1 and another guy Ralphie says is legit BOTH loving Mariners over

    and I just don’t see it . Time will tell before season starts though

  30. #30
    Ralphie Halves
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    If you can get 70.5 on the Royals, I'd definitely hit it.

    There's not 9 extra wins in Moustakas and Duda, especially when the rest of the lineup is so weak, you can just pitch around them. Maybe 2-4 wins max, and that's if they stay healthy.

    And my options right now are just 5D, and books around town. Was surprised to see the variation just between those places though.

  31. #31
    Ralphie Halves
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    The only sport I feel confident betting win totals all by myself is college football, and even with that, I only eeked out a unit win last year.

    No matter what makes sense to me, if I got a guy who wins, I'll usually just go with it. He said Yankees and DBacks over last year, I said "yeah right", and it wasn't even close. I will probably bet that Cards over, just to give me some extra rooting interest this year. Love how he had the Cards and Cubs wins flipped this year.

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