NCAA hoops 2/9-2/10 discussion thread!

[KVB]

I have an outright toss up between Davidson and RI at just about 70 points each. Davidson even gets a slight moneyline edge in the raw numbers. That's the stacking forecast.

The non predictive public gauge show RI winning winning by 10 with about 144 points.

Public all over RI here but some of those in depth numbers may be exploiting something. RI may be getting a little too much love and Davidson not enough credit.

I'm on Davidson here and I can be a bit contrarian. My metrics show that sharp forecast is in a somewhat "safe" range to predicting upsets. Sometimes when it runs hot with upsets, we see a crash, we're a little more on the other end, expecting an upturn.

I wish I could every forecast for every game but that is crazy some days, so maybe I focus on a conference or what's being discussed or a both.

[KVB]

...I'm always interested in learning how others go about this thing we do and certainly think there a place for other ways of going about it. More knowledge can never be a bad thing and I suspect using your info be a very helpful way to narrow down/eliminate potentially bad plays (Washington huskies last night comes to mind!)..

I feel the same way and know that we have to keep learning, all of us, it's a must.

I'll try to keep brief and to the point as much as I can, I know a lot of guys are contributing with in depth thoughts.

[2daBank]

I have an outright toss up between Davidson and RI at just about 70 points each. Davidson even gets a slight moneyline edge in the raw numbers. That's the stacking forecast.

The non predictive public gauge show RI winning winning by 10 with about 144 points.

Public all over RI here but some of those in depth numbers may be exploiting something. RI may be getting a little too much love and Davidson not enough credit.

I'm on Davidson here and I can be a bit contrarian. My metrics show that sharp forecast is in a somewhat "safe" range to predicting upsets. Sometimes when it runs hot with upsets, we see a crash, we're a little more on the other end, expecting an upturn.

I wish I could every forecast for every game but that is crazy some days, so maybe I focus on a conference or what's being discussed or a both.

I'll be 1st to admit I know my numbers on Davidson are wrong, proof in how many times they have burnt me in a-10 play! Their defense has obviously improved substantially over the early non-conf where I was having lot of success against them. Their 3 point reliance something I'm generally very wary of on the road, especially against the caliber of rams perimeter defense, I will say as much as I like RI I had uneasy feeling about them tonight soon as I saw the number. I think your points valid enough to keep me away from playing them, which if I had would have only been in a money line parlay format anyways.

[KVB]

I think we're seeing some of that pressure on Davidson despite sources like sportsinsights showing a heavy ticket percentage on RI.

The percentages, whether reliable or not, will probably be forced to move a little toward Davidson.

I have +6 and +222. I missed a better moneyline number but I'll take that bet anyway.

[KVB]

I Been looking at this one a little and can't decide if I'm willing to lay the number? Biggest thing for me is RI been playing incredible perimeter d, not only allowing teams to shoot barely over 30% in a-10 play but also running them off the line with teams only attempting 29% of their shots from 3. That lines up perfectly with what rams did to Davidson last season in 3 meetings (destroying them twice) only allowing them to shoot 24% from behind the arc!! Davidson lives and dies from distance as they 5th in country having 49.8% of their shots from 3!! I think rams continue taking them off their game. Just hesitant as I mentioned i think my ranking for Davidson is off. Thinking of finding suitable ml parlay partner.

If you like RI, I think the number may get better, I see 5's out there.

It's not quite an hour until gametime and it's possible this move is premature, may drive some steam to Davidson, only to have the number the blink back the other way before game time. I think that would generally bode well for RI.

If it stay's lower and maybe hits 4.5 or so, the books will initiate a few more Davidson bets and those could be winners. In that case I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5 or 6 point game.

I have to go with dog here...

[2daBank]

Toledo-3.5 gets a play from me. Best offense in the conf with so many guys stroking it from behind the arc they just tough to defend and they spread it around with highest assist rate in the MAC. They have only taken 1 road loss in conf and that was to a very good buffalo team. Miami been decent but they been susceptible at home losing to eastern mich, w. Mich, and bowling green. RedHawks wins have mostly came against the bottom feeders in the conf. Much tougher task tonight against a Toledo team that really doesn't take bad losses.

[2daBank]

If you like RI, I think the number may get better, I see 5's out there.

It's not quite an hour until gametime and it's possible this move is premature, may drive some steam to Davidson, only to have the number the blink back the other way before game time. I think that would generally bode well for RI.

If it stay's lower and maybe hits 4.5 or so, the books will initiate a few more Davidson bets and those could be winners. In that case I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5 or 6 point game.

I have to go with dog here...

You sure no regrets? Not maybe just 1? Lmao..

Far as game I'm not looking to force anything on this one. I have RI money line just in a degenerate little parlay but I'm good passing on a ats play here. While I focused a lot on rams perimeter defense being a problem for Davidson I could be underestimating Davidson defense potentially slowing rams down. They could certainly zone them up and cut off all that penetration. Think key for them will be getting back in transition off of missed jumpers. Feel like might be accidentally making a case for under!! Lol

[bballs84]

What’s the ML parlay Banker

[HOT WINGS]

Toledo-3.5 gets a play from me. Best offense in the conf with so many guys stroking it from behind the arc they just tough to defend and they spread it around with highest assist rate in the MAC. They have only taken 1 road loss in conf and that was to a very good buffalo team. Miami been decent but they been susceptible at home losing to eastern mich, w. Mich, and bowling green. RedHawks wins have mostly came against the bottom feeders in the conf. Much tougher task tonight against a Toledo team that really doesn't take bad losses.

I like the Rockets tonight as well. Only play I got at moment. Played them 1st half and game. Might take a look at the Harvard Over as well. GL bro

[2daBank]

What’s the ML parlay Banker

Cavs (just hunch bron happy, but square as shit!)

RI

Toledo

[2daBank]

I'm gonna take a shot here and see if this discussion lead me to a good play (or I'm crazy, lol).

Davidson/RI under 143.5

So full card is that plus

Toledo-3.5

Princeton/Harvard over 131

[KVB]

Toledo-3.5 gets a play from me. Best offense in the conf with so many guys stroking it from behind the arc they just tough to defend and they spread it around with highest assist rate in the MAC. They have only taken 1 road loss in conf and that was to a very good buffalo team. Miami been decent but they been susceptible at home losing to eastern mich, w. Mich, and bowling green. RedHawks wins have mostly came against the bottom feeders in the conf. Much tougher task tonight against a Toledo team that really doesn't take bad losses.

My sharper numbers on this were closer to the opener and the moves, especially the Total, were more toward that public gauge. Toledo's been doing well and I do think they outlast Miami (OH).

I think Miami (OH) starts out the stronger team but the first half bet isn't really a solution, the game could turn by halftime.

It's that opening 6:00 time slot, it could be a wild first half.

Good Luck Banker.

[2daBank]

What’s the ML parlay Banker

Kinda kicking myself for not popping the Princeton ml. Was +125 when we were discussing. Down to like +105 where I looked. Hope you grabbed it! At least I have in contest! Lol

[2daBank]

My sharper numbers on this were closer to the opener and the moves, especially the Total, were more toward that public gauge. Toledo's been doing well and I do think they outlast Miami (OH).

I think Miami (OH) starts out the stronger team but the first half bet isn't really a solution, the game could turn by halftime.

It's that opening 6:00 time slot, it could be a wild first half.

Good Luck Banker.

Thanks buddy you too! Hope you get the Davidson spread but fall short on ml!! Lol. If I'm gonna lose tho couldn't think of better way than it getting you a W.

[2daBank]

We didn't really talk the Hoosier/gopher game, anyone have any thoughts there? Gun to head I'd take the points but those bottom feeder big 10 teams kinda tough to figure out night to night! Like has gophers recent solid play while losing to good teams propel them here or they go back to dog shit vs another bad team? Who knows?? Lol

[2daBank]

Not sure that aggies be dogs. Let's hope so. I been back on the Aggie train for a minute now (actually started a little too soon but that ok, paying off now). Still think this potentially one of best teams in country.

Dom, as I feared. The secret out on aggies. Opened -5.5 vs U.K. Such a bummer but had a feeling it was coming.

[KVB]

Indiana just bringing in the Unders ATS while Minny has recent Overs.

Stacking forecast says Indiana 76 Minnesota 65. The public gauge has Indiana winning 76-71.

That Total was between these numbers but has moved a bit towards the forecast. "Sharper" money I think on the UNDER here.

The spread is pretty tight and not moving towards the forecast even though those percentages show public tickets on Indiana too.

Minnesota is desperate for a win and have been lighting it up but losing. Indiana forces that Under and tonight is probably another Under and there are still decent numbers to get.

When Minny finally gets a win, it will probably be when they can score. Those are words I will probably eat someday...lol.

Like tonight.

I like the Under there more than anything and think Minnesota is a very risky bet to take. That doesn't mean I like Indiana, I just think Minnesota eventual win is one I may just have to miss out on.

In CFL I sometimes just warn against teams, I'm not always right but I think Minny is danger.

[KVB]

Thanks for the space in the thread bro, right or wrong it's been nice to sum a few things up.

In the end write-ups may seem worthless to some, especially just those tailing, but I maintain that writing games up is more beneficial for the writer, than anyone else.

It's good to think things out like that.

[2daBank]

Good stuff. I often times have to remind myself sometimes not making a play is the best play!!

[DOM_Toretto]

Dom, as I feared. The secret out on aggies. Opened -5.5 vs U.K. Such a bummer but had a feeling it was coming.

Oh wow, damn. I’m with you tho, a&m super talented and a final four dark horse. Multiple nba players.

[KVB]

...I think Miami (OH) starts out the stronger team but the first half bet isn't really a solution, the game could turn by halftime...

MIA(OH) scored first and is hanging with Toledo first half. In my opinion, if Toledo pulls away at the end of the half and spoils the hafltime dog and Toledo won't have to cover the second half to pay the pregame favorite, then Toledo is looking good.

That hook on the -3.5 could come into play.

[SBR Tony]

Dartmouth on major slide it seems but they have also had brutal schedule. If I'm seeing that right they have only played 3 home games since beginning of December?? Wow!

Honestly I know very little about the bottom of the ivy (the Dartmouth, Browns, Cornell's of the world), I try to keep up with the top half but there only so much time in a day! Interesting that they have beaten penn so much and this their 1st home game in weeks. What your thoughts on how it plays out?

I agree on the bottom of the ivy league, this game got my interest because as it looks like the Quakers are the better team. Dart has the better offensive numbers

Dart is ranked 112 in field goal %, shooting 45.8% with 72.2% at the FT line
where the Quakers are ranked 157, with 44.5% shooting, there FT % is 64.5

I have a feeling that line of -7 is a little off and hasn't moved

I'm probably going to take a shot at +7, small though

[KRIT]

Forget today bank, once lines are posted for tomorrow lets get the 2/10 discussion going.

[KVB]

MIA(OH) scored first and is hanging with Toledo first half. In my opinion, if Toledo pulls away at the end of the half and spoils the hafltime dog and Toledo won't have to cover the second half to pay the pregame favorite, then Toledo is looking good.

That hook on the -3.5 could come into play.

Toledo pressuring hard inside 3 minutes.

What was 18-18 at that post is now 27-20 in favor of Toledo!

[HOT WINGS]

I agree on the bottom of the ivy league, this game got my interest because as it looks like the Quakers are the better team. Dart has the better offensive numbers

Dart is ranked 112 in field goal %, shooting 45.8% with 72.2% at the FT line
where the Quakers are ranked 157, with 44.5% shooting, there FT % is 64.5

I have a feeling that line of -7 is a little off and hasn't moved

I'm probably going to take a shot at +7, small though

Just grabbed Dart +4 1st half. I like the 7 though too but didn't play it. GL

[KVB]

Well there you go, the last couple of minutes Toledo spoiled the halftime dog and won by 11, outscoring MIA(OH) 15-4 in the last 5 minutes.

Let's see if they cover now.

[HOT WINGS]

Indiana just bringing in the Unders ATS while Minny has recent Overs.

Stacking forecast says Indiana 76 Minnesota 65. The public gauge has Indiana winning 76-71.

That Total was between these numbers but has moved a bit towards the forecast. "Sharper" money I think on the UNDER here.

The spread is pretty tight and not moving towards the forecast even though those percentages show public tickets on Indiana too.

Minnesota is desperate for a win and have been lighting it up but losing. Indiana forces that Under and tonight is probably another Under and there are still decent numbers to get.

When Minny finally gets a win, it will probably be when they can score. Those are words I will probably eat someday...lol.

Like tonight.

I like the Under there more than anything and think Minnesota is a very risky bet to take. That doesn't mean I like Indiana, I just think Minnesota eventual win is one I may just have to miss out on.

In CFL I sometimes just warn against teams, I'm not always right but I think Minny is danger.

Good take here. I like under as well but just took it for 1st half myself. GL man

[KVB]

Now MIA(OH) can win the second half and not cover the spread.

This, in my opinion, is the situation you wanted to be in Banker.

[KDF500]

Interesting banter boys. Enjoying this.

[KVB]

...That hook on the -3.5 could come into play.

Mia (OH) winning that second half and both teams settling in to the 2 to 4 point Toledo lead.

[KVB]

I won't normally be a play by play guy, I just figured I started this game, may as well finish it, wright or wrong in analysis.

[2daBank]

Toledo pressuring hard inside 3 minutes.

What was 18-18 at that post is now 27-20 in favor of Toledo!

Then of course Ohio comes out on run in 2nd half.

[2daBank]

Forget today bank, once lines are posted for tomorrow lets get the 2/10 discussion going.

Here shortly bro. My woman has strep throat and flu just got done getting her in bed but dealing with Walgreens trying to get her damn prescriptions and they being a royal pain in my ass. Soon as I get this all taken care of I'll have rest of night free seeing how she isn't gonna wanna hang out! Lol

[2daBank]

Kvb you are banned for talking me off Rhode Island!!! Lol. Just joking.,

[KVB]

RI comes out strong, very strong.

Yikes.

Toledo still toying with the 3 to 4 point lead inside 5 minutes.