whats everyone's process of picking games? I just look at a few bullshit stats and throw a dart hoping it hits. want to know what the real deal MFer's around here do when they cap games and pick winners.
-
-
first, let's have your A / S / L ?
that will let us know if response-worthy
I'm guessing notComment -
I like a game
post opposite side in hopes of attention and to bury posters
today I am releasing 100UNIT game of the year
well I don't even know who is playing yetComment -
L = location
not length
There is a handicapper think tank subforum that has a ton of info, some actually good. But you would have to.spend some time and also go back a few years.
Personally I stick to what sport and even teams I know most about. Even then it's difficult. Don't play too many games. I've been doing better lately playing 1-2 games max per night. You can check my thread in Hockey subforumComment -
Rudy I provided a winner in your birthday thread yesterday but only heard the Crickets chirp
Hope you at least got laid or something funComment -
Injuries/Lineups
Previous 10 matches H2H in the last 3 years
Previous 10 matches in general this season
Misc Factors (Weather, Motivation, Momentum)
To name a few...Comment -
Using numbers created on the field or court by the coaches, players and refs, and combining that with assessments of public perception and the flow of money from market moving decision makers caused by line originators and bookmaking techniques, I attempt to ascertain why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes.
I then lay market metrics on top of that based on the moneyflow and bookmaking techniques above to determine the short term and long term risk of a play. Many regressions are used, but the circumstances and environment of the those numbers are taken into account. The numbers aren't used in a static fashion, as most modelers would be forced into, instead they are dynamic; changing as the market environment changes and the season progresses.
I often prepare for an upcoming season well in advance, during active seasons in other sports, using spreadsheets and notebooks.
I create several lines base on different levels of sophistication. I've often found that simple remains the best and bettors often go around the block just to get next door.
At one point, I can predict which sets of line will be openers for a given day or week, and this is when the view of the markets are slightly unambiguous leading to an uptick in short term winners. I've gone into this in a bit more detail in some season long threads posting in real time the predictions before the lines are released and using those as excellent examples.
It's not easy but for the most part at least I understand, win or lose, where I am in relation to the market environment.
Comment -
Using numbers created on the field or court by the coaches, players and refs, and combining that with assessments of public perception and the flow of money from market moving decision makers caused by line originators and bookmaking techniques, I attempt to ascertain why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes.
I then lay market metrics on top of that based on the moneyflow and bookmaking techniques above to determine the short term and long term risk of a play. Many regressions are used, but the circumstances and environment of the those numbers are taken into account. The numbers aren't used in a static fashion, as most modelers would be forced into, instead they are dynamic; changing as the market environment changes and the season progresses.
I often prepare for an upcoming season well in advance, during active seasons in other sports, using spreadsheets and notebooks.
I create several lines base on different levels of sophistication. I've often found that simple remains the best and bettors often go around the block just to get next door.
At one point, I can predict which sets of line will be openers for a given day or week, and this is when the view of the markets are slightly unambiguous leading to an uptick in short term winners. I've gone into this in a bit more detail in some season long threads posting in real time the predictions before the lines are released and using those as excellent examples.
It's not easy but for the most part at least I understand, win or lose, where I am in relation to the market environment.
head is spinning after all that. I need to go deep into capping like this. Hate flipping a coin pretty much to pick games. appreciate the insight into your methods.
Comment -
KVB is on another level
You are too if you can actually understand his posts about handicapping, lines, markets, etc.Comment -
don't worry
he tries to act sharp but isn't
the difference between me and him
I post losers and admit to posting losers
he thinks he is sharp then abandons threads when his picks start losingComment -
It takes time and experience as well as notes.
I often say "track your bets and why you made them" and have gone into some detail in those season threads about just what that means.
When you make a bet don't just track the win loss, track, with notes if necessary, why you made the bet. Over time you will see the natural give and take of the markets as you win and lose.
Often, it's not the information but it's how you use it. We all have access to a lot of the same info.
Tracking your bets specifically and why you specifically made those bets generates data and information that even the most advanced and sophisticated syndicates don't have.
Of course, that is until the sharps can profile the decision making of bettors, then you fall somewhere. This is what I mean when I talk about money moving through different types of bettors and groups.
Even if a bettor is "made" and the markets seem to him much of coin flip because some inefficiencies are stamped out, there is still tremendous wealth to be gained from tracking your bets and why you make them.
It's a constant give and take game of cat and mouse where you are constantly adjusting.
Sometimes good bets just lose, but sometimes we make mistakes. Learning from mistakes is very important as you progress.
We haven't even hit on the most difficult part of sports betting...patience and discipline.
Comment -
ALERT: None of this mattersIt takes time and experience as well as notes.
I often say "track your bets and why you made them" and have gone into some detail in those season threads about just what that means.
When you make a bet don't just track the win loss, track, with notes if necessary, why you made the bet. Over time you will see the natural give and take of the markets as you win and lose.
Often, it's not the information but it's how you use it. We all have access to a lot of the same info.
Tracking your bets specifically and why you specifically made those bets generates data and information that even the most advanced and sophisticated syndicates don't have.
Of course, that is until the sharps can profile the decision making of bettors, then you fall somewhere. This is what I mean when I talk about money moving through different types of bettors and groups.
Even if a bettor is "made" and the markets seem to him much of coin flip because some inefficiencies are stamped out, there is still tremendous wealth to be gained from tracking your bets and why you make them.
It's a constant give and take game of cat and mouse where you are constantly adjusting.
Sometimes good bets just lose, but sometimes we make mistakes. Learning from mistakes is very important as you progress.
We haven't even hit on the most difficult part of sports betting...patience and discipline.
All jibberish to make him sound smart
he never creates threads...just posts in others filled with fluff
then when his plays start losing, he leaves thread and it diesComment -
Also, KVB let his PRO membership expire 1/17/18
don't let facts get in the way of his bs thoughComment -
When I'm posting plays in a sport I post a whole season (or a subset like March Madness or a league playoffs) to completion. It's kept to one thread so tracking can be more detailed and previous analyses are easily referred to.
I don't bump winners, unless the rare case where there is a good example to learn from.
Instead, I often bump the losing bets in those season long threads to illustrate mistakes and how we can learn from them.
When winning, I don't update the records too often as readers know we are winning and it attracts trolls. When analysis leads to loss, most often short term plays, you will see me bump the losers quite often and update the losing records.
We can learn a lot more from losers than we can with winners.
Comment -
That is the problem.. There is nowhere for everyone to track picks to determine those who are sharp and those who are not. There may be some websites that keep track of records for touts but I don't know of any that post on here. People post plays in the service forums from different folks as well... but there is no way to track is they have been successful.Comment -
Good stuff. KVB, you ever instruct guided meditations?Using numbers created on the field or court by the coaches, players and refs, and combining that with assessments of public perception and the flow of money from market moving decision makers caused by line originators and bookmaking techniques, I attempt to ascertain why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes.
I then lay market metrics on top of that based on the moneyflow and bookmaking techniques above to determine the short term and long term risk of a play. Many regressions are used, but the circumstances and environment of the those numbers are taken into account. The numbers aren't used in a static fashion, as most modelers would be forced into, instead they are dynamic; changing as the market environment changes and the season progresses.
I often prepare for an upcoming season well in advance, during active seasons in other sports, using spreadsheets and notebooks.
I create several lines base on different levels of sophistication. I've often found that simple remains the best and bettors often go around the block just to get next door.
At one point, I can predict which sets of line will be openers for a given day or week, and this is when the view of the markets are slightly unambiguous leading to an uptick in short term winners. I've gone into this in a bit more detail in some season long threads posting in real time the predictions before the lines are released and using those as excellent examples.
It's not easy but for the most part at least I understand, win or lose, where I am in relation to the market environment.
People could use this post to meditate if put into sound.Comment -
I go to "odds" at top of SBR page, click on little blue box that pops up, click on "matchup" then review past results.Comment -
last few games
hunchesComment -
Anybody else make picks out of a hat? I’m talking about the real tough ones.Comment -
Whomever has the more dominant mascot and apply it to real life. Like I like a Tigers vs. Wildcats situation, Im on Tigers every single time. The problem arises when you have say the Commodores against the Cavaliers. Like I mean a Commodore could beat a Cavalier and vice versa so I lay off those type games.Comment -
I read the SBR forum and fadeComment -
This is nonsense. It all depends on the poster. Some posters create a thread for every play with no intention of ever tracking.
Some posters use the SBR spreadsheet to track wins and losses.
When posting a season or event, I post plays in the same thread and usually update the tracking with my own spreadsheet showing more information about the posted plays, like links to original posts, and whether or not the line moved my direction.
Like I said, when winning, I update the spreadsheet less often, and concentrate more on the losing records spans, I'm always trying to learn or teach.
For the CFL, with 4 games each week and 20 weeks, the forecasts were successful nearly every week so those are usually updated in detail quarterly. This last year in never faltered so I rarely took the time to update the winning record. We had one bad week and I talked about it non stop for the next 8 weeks.
The same can't be said for some of the short term plays and those were reviewed at the end of each week.
For posters like me, it's easy to go back and track the plays if you wanted to, they are in one spot.
Otherwise, if there is some poster you want to track, you may have to do it yourself jumping from thread to thread.
I, LT Profits, JJ Gold, DDD, Fidel Cashflow, Da Manster, and some others have all been a part of easy tracking. There are more in the subforums but don't expect to many posters to make it easy for you.
Many aren't really betting and have no intention of keeping track of their plays. Like I said, those posters usually start a different thread for every play.
If you really want to track someone, you may have to take the time to do it yourself.
Laziness and shortcuts will often keep a potential winning better from ever getting off the ground.
I wouldn't count the contest results too much, sometimes we test theories, plays and new ideas in the contests. I've done that before.
Good Luck
Comment -
Comment -
I let my dogs pick the team !!
Comment -
this is the best adviceComment -
edit - already used
although mine was way more sophisticatedComment -
this type of poster is the worst here and the ones I really do not likeThis is nonsense. It all depends on the poster. Some posters create a thread for every play with no intention of ever tracking.
Some posters use the SBR spreadsheet to track wins and losses.
When posting a season or event, I post plays in the same thread and usually update the tracking with my own spreadsheet showing more information about the posted plays, like links to original posts, and whether or not the line moved my direction.
Like I said, when winning, I update the spreadsheet less often, and concentrate more on the losing records spans, I'm always trying to learn or teach.
For the CFL, with 4 games each week and 20 weeks, the forecasts were successful nearly every week so those are usually updated in detail quarterly. This last year in never faltered so I rarely took the time to update the winning record. We had one bad week and I talked about it non stop for the next 8 weeks.
The same can't be said for some of the short term plays and those were reviewed at the end of each week.
For posters like me, it's easy to go back and track the plays if you wanted to, they are in one spot.
Otherwise, if there is some poster you want to track, you may have to do it yourself jumping from thread to thread.
I, LT Profits, JJ Gold, DDD, Fidel Cashflow, Da Manster, and some others have all been a part of easy tracking. There are more in the subforums but don't expect to many posters to make it easy for you.
Many aren't really betting and have no intention of keeping track of their plays. Like I said, those posters usually start a different thread for every play.
If you really want to track someone, you may have to take the time to do it yourself.
Laziness and shortcuts will often keep a potential winning better from ever getting off the ground.
I wouldn't count the contest results too much, sometimes we test theories, plays and new ideas in the contests. I've done that before.
Good Luck
Bold/italicized..he does none of these..he posts in other posters' threads and when he starts losing he abandons them
large font is his way of saying...don't look at my contests here because I admit to be a loser
I can bump his threads where he posts continuously and then aborts thread, but might result in a fractionComment -
This tracking can also take a bit of work and sometimes you find that games are often well split.
It is easier to track those tracking, but they're not necessarily "SBR consensus" type bets.
There are those with spreadsheets and those with threads. Over the last few years, nearly all of my posted plays have been in one thread, the same thread regardless of the event or sport with the only exception being entire CFL season threads. With 20 weeks, it seems better that way.
The same is also true for DDD and he also carries an SBR spreadsheet to sum it up. We may post the same play elsewhere, but the "home thread" is there nonetheless. For example, I just posted a golf play in some drama thread to break up the nonsense, but that play is also in a home thread as there may be more golf to come.
I haven't been posting much the last couple of months but I may post the forecasts and moneyflow for every game of March Madness, like before, in the same thread as always. I use my own detailed spreadsheet for that tracking, it has more information to work with than the SBR sheet.
I might do NBA playoffs as well, but that can get a bit redundant since it seems to go on forever, like it's own little season.
March Madness becomes a power posting event from Thursday through Sunday for a couple of weeks. It's something to check out and input and questions are always good for the posts.
By following me through an event or season you will get a better idea of some of the thinking that gets into the decision making from some posts above.
I've always found these things to be best taught by example, in real time. There's no substitute for that kind of experience.
Especially in this drama they call sports.
Comment
