I like the Wolfpack getting a TD or more. ND won’t be able to run all over ncsu like usc. I think this game is similar to ND/UGA
thoughts?
thoughts?
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I was looking into NC State as well. It should be interesting to see how Notre Dame comes off their big win against one of their rivals. You could say everyone ND plays could be considered a rival due to being Independent, but USC and Notre Dame just have a special rivalry. I think I saw this earlier at 7.5. Might still play it if it gets back up there.Comment -
Key may be Wolfpack pass def. Haven't really followed them.Comment -
NC State coming off bye and Notre Dame coming off a huge blowout of a rival. Perfect recipe for a tight game although the Irish should probably win by 10+ on paper.Comment -
Notre Dame play a run heavy offence (62:38 rush to pass ratio). NC State haven't seen an offence this run heavy yet (Florida St at 56:44 the closest).
I think this could be the last chance bettors get to buy the Irish at a low price. The market hasn't quite caught up, but if and when they win this game they won't be 33/1 for the Championship. A futures ticket on Notre Dame before this game at 33/1 will be worth > the Money Line for this game.Comment -
Hate to break the news to you but notre dame has no chance to win it all has long as kelly is there. I followed that yahoo when he was at uc. I have a better chance of seeing my toes than notre dame has of winning it all. Although I did enjoy watching them when jarret grace was there.Comment -
Anyone on State are just trying to be cute, you need your head checked.Comment -
A futures ticket on the Irish is a loser. If they could not defeat Georgia at home. they will never be able to defeat Georgia or Alabama at a neutral site. Thinking that a futures ticket is worth more than a ML ticket for this game is just plain wrong. And you guys wonder why you lose so much. The fact is that the Irish have a much bigger chance winning on Saturday than they do of winning it all. Besides, if you think this out (which you obviously did not), the Irish MUST win this Saturday in order for your 33/1 futures ticket to still be alive.Comment -
Notre Dame is going to need someone else to lose. Georgia played them heads up and won. That’s the simplest metric of all to use. If that isn’t a tiebreaker, why even schedule tough games? You can’t say Ohio State deserves to go every year based on who they played and then not use the same logic for other teams.Comment -
NC State is my alma mater, but I have to be dispassionate here. They have a good record, but the wins which were impressive at the time just aren't really all that impressive in hindsight.
People were impressed when they handed #12 FSU their 2nd loss of the season, but it turns out FSU did not even remotely deserve that ranking.
People were impressed when they handed #17 Louisville their 2nd loss of the season but, as above, Louisville did not deserve that ranking.
NC State has no game against teams currently ranked. Notre Dame is an impressive 2-1, with the 1 loss being by a single point against #3.Comment -
If Notre Dame wins out, they're in. Assuming that happens then of the 8 teams ahead of them, we can already guarantee 4 will lose at some point in the future (Miami, OSU/PSU loser, Big 10 Championship Loser, SEC Championship Loser). So it will only take an upset or two impacting another team. Wisconsin, TCU and Clemson are likely candidates (heck, if TCU loses to OU I am not even sure that would be considered an upset).Comment -
Don’t see how you’d put a 11-1 ND team over a 12-1 Georgia team with one loss to Alabama. Long ways to go though.Comment -
NC St a big playComment -
Even if we assume 2 spots for Alabama and 1-loss Georgia, that still leaves 2 spots. According to the AP Poll, there are 6 teams ahead of ND (once we take away Alabama and UGA) and we can already guarantee 3 of them will lose. So it will take very, very little to get ND a spot. There's no way all those teams win out in every other game.
Please note I am not saying I am completely convinced ND wins out, just that they are in if they do.Comment -
Lets not play games, if ND win out we know theyre in, remember the old format, ND is not much different than Bama in terms of voter love, with 1 loss and on occasion even 2 there are ways back then they could play for the chip.Comment -
Given Notre Dame's winning streak, I wouldn't say Kelly is a total Yayhoo. But he may take the Woodpeckers... errr...Wolfpack for granted. Wolfpack has a great record but haven't played top caliber opponents. I am assuming NC State put in the amount of effort matching their opponent so the Irish may be surprised if they take this game for an easy win. A close game is not impossible.Comment -
Interesting.
Thanks for the input but I think you've misunderstood my intention. Of course the Irish "MUST win this Saturday" in order for the futures ticket to still be alive. A ML bet must also win in order for it to be alive, and I was simply saying that a futures ticket at +3300 is worth more than a -275 ML bet. I like the Irish to win this week but a ML bet is just as worthless as a futures bet if they lose.
Here's my thought process:
I can get 33/1 now for ND to win the Championship with a max bet limit of $200 at 2 seperate books, and the plan would be to hedge it at some stage.
To get to the final four they need to win out and presumably their solid SOS gets them in.
Looking at their last 5 games, including this week, they're a 32% chance to win out going by Massey who have them at 77%* v NC.State, 91% v W.Forrest, 62% v Miami (Fl), 97% v Navy & 76% V Stanford.
A rolling Money Line bet gives +213 based on those win probabilities but Line shopping each week should give closer to +300 (*this week alone I can find 73% v NCSt against Massey's 77%).
So the question is, what is ND's Championship price if and when they make the final four, and also at each stage of the run in?
I think the bet loses value after each win so the best strategy might be to hedge immediately after they beat The Wolfpack. If they win impressively they shorten to what? I'm thinking 20/1 (or less depending on the PSU result). Laying them at 20/1 after backing them at 33/1 is equal to winning a -163 ML bet. The ML is -275 this week so already the futures bet would be worth more.
For the -275 (ML) to be worth > +3300 (Championship odds) the odds would have to stay at +2400 or higher after the win. There are a few scenarios this week where the odds on the contenders could change a fair bit, but I think a strong win by the Irish sees their odds drop to < +2400.
Maybe they don't shorten to 20/1 after they beat the Wolfpack. If not I might have to let it ride to the end of the season.
Last year +700 was available for Clemson a few weeks before their Orange Bowl v Ok.St. I can't remember if that was when it was down to 4 teams or not, I don't think so, but I know +700 was there because I backed them at that price. If Notre Dame can somehow snag the #2 seed and avoid Bama in the Semi then they SHOULD get to +700 or less. If I can lay ND at +700 at some stage (after backing them at +3300) then that's equivalent to +325 on a rolling Money Line bet on their last 5 games (but I think I can beat that by line shopping wk to wk, hence my suspicion that the bet loses value as it progresses).
I'm standing by my opinion that a futures bet at 33/1 is worth more than taking a -275 ML bet this week, but it might not be worth as much as I originally thought.
Here's what I'll do. I'll take the -275 ML this week and press it up week to week. I'll also take the +3300 on the futures bet. I'll compare the value of each wager at different stages and post the results ITT for shits and giggles. I'm curious myself to see how it plays out.Comment -
Fukk the Irish...I got NC State at 250-1 to win the title back in AUG..Go Pack!Comment -
These guys named Brian can be very creative but they get lost in the double d’s at timesComment -
Notre Dame is much more battle tested than NC State coming into this game. Will the Wolfpack get caught looking ahead with a home game next week against Clemson for the ACC Atlantic on the line? This game means little to them and everything for ND to get a quality win for playoff consideration. I'll take the run heavy Irish at home with a chip on their shoulder after losing last year in the Raleigh monsoon.Comment -
I think people get a little too excited or angry about rankings and playoffs a little too early. There is still a little less than half a season of big games to be played.
Alabama still has to play Auburn, LSU and likely Georgia.
Georgia still has Florida, Auburn, GT, and likely Bama.
OSU still has PSU, Iowa, MSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin
Penn St still has to play OSU and MSU and barring no losses Wisconsin more than likely.
Wisconsin still has Iowa and Michigan and the Championship vs. OSU, PSU, or MSU.
TCU still has ISU, Texas, OU, TT and a championship game.
Then there is Clemson and Miami.
Notre Dame controls it's own destiny when it comes to Clemson and Miami. No way a 1 loss Clemson gets in over a 1 loss ND. If ND is a one loss team that means bye bye Miami.
If OSU or PSU have 1 loss and win the big 10 championship game, they will get in. If either have 2 losses, and beat Wisconsin in the championship game, I can see none of the Big 10 teams making it. That's actually more possible than you'd think. If Wisconsin wins out including the BIG10 ship they are in. The rest of the BIG10 is out.
I don't see any Pac 12 teams jumping a Notre Dame team that Beat USC, Miami, NC State, Stanford, MSU and a 1 point loss to Georgia.
TCU has to win out vs. a gauntlet of a schedule to make it. I've been watching college football since I was 6 and strange things always seem to happen those last few weeks in the BIG 12.
So lets say Georgia and Bama are in. Big 12 no teams, PAC 12 no teams, BIG 10 1 team. That leaves Notre Dame vs. the ACC.
Does the Committee choose Clemson or Notre Dame. Our loss looks a whole lot better than Clemson's. Our SOS is better.
Our dooms day scenario is TCU wins out. PSU , OSU, or Wisconsin win out. Georgia loses a tight one to Bama. I think Notre Dame controls their own destiny vs. the ACC and PAC12Comment -
And history tells us, teams will lose.
If, and it is a BIG IF, Notre Dame wins out, they are in the playoff.
As bad as Notre Dame made USC look, USC still has the Pac-12 title to play for.
Miami, Florida could very well win the ACC, and ND plays them in 2 weeks.
It will come down to SEC Champ, Big 10 Champ-- and the next 2 are anyone's guess and ND will have as good a resume as any 1 loss team. TCU will lose twice.Comment -
I think this could be the year we see 2 teams from 1 conference, Alabama and UGA. Much still depends on TCU. I have no faith in them running the table but they're certainly in if they do. The Pac-12 is on the outside looking in. With some luck, Washington gets in if they run the table. Same thing for Oklahoma.Comment -
NC State had a tougher schedule so far. Notre Dame has been cruising on wins, yes they beat Michigan State and lost by 1 to Georgia but thats earlier in the season. Public will be betting heavily on Notre Dame after a convincing 49-14 slaughtering of the trojans. USC is overrated and has no defense.Comment -
Notre Dame got crushed against Bama and would again this year.
last thing we need is to have them running the table and making it in again only to get slaughtered
I guess if Miami needs a resume builder then they need to stay up so a win here would help a team later
ACC has gotten stronger and while FSU is having a down year I don’t think you can just look past the Wolfpack here.
Unless that is you just want to peacock on NBCComment -
I think ND beats NC State into a pulp. State's best win is??? Marshall?Comment -
I'm not convinced NC st D or run D is as good as everyone is hyping it up to beComment -
I actually think this could be NDs toughest test the rest of season, tougher than the Miami game coming up in 2 weeks. If Irish win this game I’m convinced they’re a top-5 team. There’s nothing tougher than coming off an emotional win against big opponent and then playing another strong opponent the following week coming off a bye.
This reminds me of the same scenario from 1993 when ND beat FSU and then had to try and get up for BC the next week and lost.Comment
