[SamsNCharge99]

Wassup Guys, last year we had a thread going that started mid season, so I decided to get this going before week 1 so we can have some discussions and all try to help each other win and survive each week.

I have 4 entries this year and I'm going to have 2 entries where I pick all 17 weeks up front and 2 I will go week by week.

I haven't locked in any picks yet but here's what Week 1 is looking like

NE -7.5 over KC. NE is going to be popular pick every week. Will they win this game...probably, but will I use them for eliminator week 1. ABSOLUTELY NOT. They have home games to bills, miami, and jets. Take advantage of that easy week later in the season

ATLANTA -7 at Bears. Now 1 rule of thumb I have for eliminator is to avoid ROAD teams. So based on that rule, I won't touch this game, but it's certainly an option for some people.

PITTSBURGH -9 over Browns. Again, this is road game scenario. Browns speak for themselves and always a common team people will pick against. Big Ben on the road the last 2 years has been pretty bad just FYI.

CAROLINA -6 over SF. Another road game. Questionable on Cam Newton and health.

Those are spreads 6 points or above. Some games don't have lines yet and week 1 has tons of spreads 3 points of less.

I'll be coming back to this of course in the next week or so, but wanted to throw this out to start the season.

Good luck to everyone and let's make this a profitable thread for those involved.

[BigdaddyQH]

My week 1 possibles. Buffalo - 6 1/2 to 7 vs Jets. I try to use the 8-8 type teams early. Cincinnati -3 vs Baltimore. How bad is Flacco's back?

[RiverRaid]

Atlanta is the play. Gl this season pal.

[SamsNCharge99]

Buffalo -6.5 home to Jets. Buffalo is a team you may have have a few opportunities to take all season. Even if they win 6-7-8-9 games, how many of those are you super confident in them?? This may be a spot where there's slightly extra confidence in them.

Houston -5 home to Jax. So many questions on both sides. Jax in my mind is the sleeper team of the NFL past 3 seasons and they have failed to perform. Maybe this is their year....or it's another year they win 4-5 games. Houston is another one of those teams where you don't have many opportunities to use them, so maybe use them here.

[SamsNCharge99]

Atlanta is the play. Gl this season pal.

The problem for me using ATL is using them right away. For me, I like to plan all 17 weeks out in week 1 and my strategy is to keep teams like NE, GBay, ATL, Seattle, ext keep them as long as you can. Even pittsburgh you might want to keep knowing they play home to Browns at some point.

So for me, using ATL week 1 I will try to avoid and also on the road.

Just for other people looking, i did make it all the way to week 16 last year and lost on Seattle home to Arizona. Where Seattle came back from 13 down in final 5 minutes only to miss the XP and let Zona win on last second FG to fukk me out of like 5k.

Not saying I'm a pro, but using this thread and advice from other guys will def help you survive long term. Obviously lots of luck, but if you plan ahead skill out ways the luck

[ThaWoj]

I'm in like 8 survivors this year. Will be visiting this thread often. I won one last year out of the 5 I was in.

I always try to avoid road teams and divisional games.

[SamsNCharge99]

Anyone got NE tonight?

MY 4 entries I'm going with

1. Houston
2. Buffalo
3. Buffalo
4. LA Rams

LA Rams is in a position where you may never use them again. Week 1 is always super tough and I don't like going with ROAD teams. I also like to keep top teams such as NE for later in the year and get rid of weaker teams early on.

This is a great spot for the RAMS. Home and playing INDY without Andrew Luck. it's worth the gamble for me.

[Regul8er]

I have 2 entries in a LARGE survivor pool. Pot of over $250k.

Going with Atlanta with both of my entries. I hate taking road teams in these, but Glennon with his first start for the Bears with virtually no weapons around him. Atlanta should cruise. Going to avoid Buffalo, as that will be the popular pick of the week.

Good luck

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Sammy great thread & congrats on the engagement.

Im leaning Buff as well but thoughts on Pitts?

[SamsNCharge99]

Sammy great thread & congrats on the engagement.

Im leaning Buff as well but thoughts on Pitts?

Pitt is an obvious choice against the Browns. I'm not going with them for a couple reasons.
1. I can find a better spot later on in the year for Pitt
2. Gamble on some weaker teams and leave stronger teams for later on
3. Big Ben statistically isn't as good on the road as he is at home
4. Goes against my road team rule
5. Knowing a lot of people will have them and hope they lose.... hahahaha.

[SamsNCharge99]

I have 2 entries in a LARGE survivor pool. Pot of over $250k.

Going with Atlanta with both of my entries. I hate taking road teams in these, but Glennon with his first start for the Bears with virtually no weapons around him. Atlanta should cruise. Going to avoid Buffalo, as that will be the popular pick of the week.

Good luck

damn huge pot. My eliminator is probably around 12k.

The only thing that scares me is putting both entries on 1 team. Atlanta is a great home team and you can find spots for them later on. You don't wanna blow your load early on the top teams and have to rely on the weaker teams later on in the year in my opinion.

Atlanta 100% should win, but would hate to lose both entries on a bad beat. If you at least spread out both entries you would be saving Atlanta in 1 entry and on the rare possibility of a loss, you at least still have 1 entry left (if that other team wins of course)

Good luck

[Regul8er]

Ya, $100 a head, and over 2,500 entries so far. This could easily hit 3k by Saturday night. I think last year, 12 people went splits on about 280k, 23k is nothing to sneeze at.

All valid points! Jets are going to be straight trash.....but I dont have much confidence in the Bills. Sure this is likely the most popular play, but I feel like I want to see what the Bills have after a few weeks before I pick them.

The first couple weeks for me have always been take the teams I know will be good, and closely watch those fringe teams.
I'll consider taking Atlanta with just one entry.....and look for a replacement, but it's a pretty tough week to be honest.

[chico2663]

I am using tenn. I think they will pound the inside of tenn. atl scares me because teams coming off sbowl loss haven't been good. Cleveland always scares me because they can give pitt a game. cincy hasn't lost opening season div game at home in ever it seems but there is the marvin factor. I may blow it but this is who i'm taking.

[WWCD]

I think Houston is a lock.

[2daBank]

Anyone got NE tonight?

MY 4 entries I'm going with

1. Houston
2. Buffalo
3. Buffalo
4. LA Rams

LA Rams is in a position where you may never use them again. Week 1 is always super tough and I don't like going with ROAD teams. I also like to keep top teams such as NE for later in the year and get rid of weaker teams early on.

This is a great spot for the RAMS. Home and playing INDY without Andrew Luck. it's worth the gamble for me.

Man I thought about lambs but ultimately it boiled down to this, I could not live w myself being eliminated freaking week 1 cause I trusted the lambs. If I go down on a team like Texans (who my choice this week) fine I'll hang my head high in defeat, I pick lambs and they lose I'll be kicking myself for eternity.,

I've never subscribe to the theory of looking ahead or saving teams. Win and advance the name of the game, looking ahead gets you the same thing that happens to teams that look ahead, screwing up before the week you looking to.

[SamsNCharge99]

Man I thought about lambs but ultimately it boiled down to this, I could not live w myself being eliminated freaking week 1 cause I trusted the lambs. If I go down on a team like Texans (who my choice this week) fine I'll hang my head high in defeat, I pick lambs and they lose I'll be kicking myself for eternity.,

I've never subscribe to the theory of looking ahead or saving teams. Win and advance the name of the game, looking ahead gets you the same thing that happens to teams that look ahead, screwing up before the week you looking to.

I agree with that theory of win and advance. But for me, I have 4 entries, so I'll take the risk on 1 and go the other 3 on my top picks.

[2daBank]

I've seen a lot of guys on bills. I get the jets are a train wreck but is buffalo really much better? They kind of appear to be tanking.

I know Texans not exactly in great shape at qb but think chances of them losing to this jags team pretty unlikely in what should be a emotionally charged home opener. Like what jags doing overall but honestly I think the pathetic qb play is wearing thin on this team as you could already sense frustration in the preseason imo. Don't love taking a team in a game that most likely lower scoring so potentially close but still prefer that to a road team and just don't think Houstons offense will have to do a lot as the defense will probably score and set up a few short fields against the turnover machines playing qb for jags.

[SamsNCharge99]

Using my strategy, Bills are just a team I'm using week 1 b/c I likely would never use them again all year. What better spot than home to one of the top 3 worst teams in the league.

You are right, Bills aren't impressive, but Jets are down right awful

[2daBank]

I just don't know wtf they actually doing or tryin to accomplish in buffalo w the moves they have made?? agree it probably about the best spot you can have but we also don't have to use every team throughout the season! My thinking is I'd rather wait and see what it is they actually gonna look like and maybe there be a spot later down the line, or they turn into unusable which I can live with..to me the unknown is just too risky in these things, kinda like lambs for me. This 1st week I just need a team I'm relatively confident in at least what I can expect them to look like.

[cricketer]

can you guys mention the sportbooks offering survivor contest. Would be helpful

[2daBank]

can you guys mention the sportbooks offering survivor contest. Would be helpful

I've never actually did one thru a sports book. Always been ones put together by regular guys. I know if you a member at ctg forum they have a free one but I mean prize only like 200 or 300, still cool for free. There a thread in NFL forum someone has link to get into a fairly decent sized one for 25 bucks but gotta do it before tonight's game I believe.

[SamsNCharge99]

can you guys mention the sportbooks offering survivor contest. Would be helpful

same as 2dabank. Mine is through friends/family,

Bookmaker doesn't offer a contest like this

[SamsNCharge99]

Who had New England last night??? Ouch

[Regul8er]

My league doesnt allow you to pick Thursday games.......I wish it did, as I never would have been on NE, and probably a few hundred could have been.

[SamsNCharge99]

WOW that stink.

I'm up to 240 entries in mine, so even $12,000, and 21 had NE.

[2daBank]

That was great. Now only if steelers would follow!!

[cricketer]

I've never actually did one thru a sports book. Always been ones put together by regular guys. I know if you a member at ctg forum they have a free one but I mean prize only like 200 or 300, still cool for free. There a thread in NFL forum someone has link to get into a fairly decent sized one for 25 bucks but gotta do it before tonight's game I believe.

same as 2dabank. Mine is through friends/family,

Bookmaker doesn't offer a contest like this

Thanks i am playing on the heritage sportbook. 15 % eliminated

[Art Vandelay]

can you guys mention the sportbooks offering survivor contest. Would be helpful

"Sportsbook" has some good ones! A $25K and a $100K.

[SamsNCharge99]

Houston really sucking today

[2daBank]

Houston really sucking today

Never lost 1st week before. Lol. I can laugh only cause my actual plays looking pretty good, if it was all bad I'd be depressed.

[SamsNCharge99]

Atlanta sweating it out. Same with pitt.

[SamsNCharge99]

Wow 2 dropped passes in endzone for bears. Atlanta got lucky

[FlyinAir]

Yeah that was pretty intense ending there in Chicago. Even crazier touchdown catch in Detroit to top off that game around the 4:40 4Q mark

Edit: And then a pick 6 off Carson Parlmer at the 4:00 mark
(20 unanswered Det Lions points)

[SamsNCharge99]

So of my 4 entries
houston....eliminated
buffalo....advance
buffalo....advance
la rams.....up early

thats why you play multiple entries haha

[SamsNCharge99]

For those who survived week 1 congrats and onto week 2. Atlanta and Pitt should did scare a bunch of people I imagine. Week 1 is always super tough and it doesn't get any easier....here are some early looks at week 2

Arizona -7.5 at Indy.....Indy clearly an awful team without Luck. With no QB and no real run game, what offense does Indy really possess. This game goes against my rule of not picking a ROAD team, so I won't take it.

Pittsburgh -7 over Minnesota. I have no feeling on this one just yet only because we haven't seen Vikings play this week. Pitt at home is much better than on the road and Big Ben's stats tell that same story. I think there are better spots for Pitt later in the year, but this one I'll keep an eye on.

Baltimore -7 over Cleveland Browns....Browns and Jets are going to be picked against every week, they are just 2 bad football teams. Baltimore had impressive win to open up season yesterday on the road, no reason to not like them this week against Browns.

Carolina -7 over Buffalo. Both teams picked up wins week 1 but both against bad teams. I still don't fully trust Carolina. I personally want to see a couple more games and how they play before I take them in an eliminator.

Oakland -14 over NYJets. Biggest spread on the board. Not much to say on this one without stating the obvious. Jets may win 3 games this year, Oakland may win 11. No reason Oakland should lose and this will be the most popular pick of the week.

Seattle -12 over SF....Another obvious pick here. SF has no weapons on offense. Seattle offense looked bad yesterday however their defense still came to play. They lost to GBay but held them to only 17 points. Seattle defense will have no problems against SF and if their offense puts up 14 points, they win. Needless to say, this is another obvious pick

TBay -6 over Bears. 100% staying away from this one. Bears actually looked decent against the Falcons. Realistically they should have won that game. Bears dropped 2 passes in the end zone in the final 30 seconds of the game. TBay had a bye week due to weather and we just haven't seen them this year for me to make an opinion. I personally am not on the Winston train thinking he is a great up and comer. I still am NOT a believer, so I won't touch this.

There's 7 plays for you all spreads 6 or higher to look at for Week 2 eliminator. Obviously there are 9 other games on the board, but this early in the season all of these teams should be available for you to take.

Early plays for me would be seattle, oakland, Baltimore