Bankroll question

[Mackballs]

If you are betting a percent of your bankroll on each game (say 2%) when do you recalculate your wager size? It seems confusing because many times you don't have just one game in play. Like on a Sat, you may have four bets out at once all for 2% and they end at all different times. Would you just recalculate each morning after all the bets from the previous day have been graded? Looking for some advice here because I clearly have no concept of bankroll management. Love you guys.

[LT Profits]

I recalc every morning. Theoretically it is supposed to be after every bet but that is simply not practical when you are adding more bets throughout the day.

[funnyb25]

Sharp

[jjgold]

Lt=sharp

[KVB]

…I’ve posted over and over again that changing you bet size is equivalent to progressive betting and it is costly.

Let’s keep it simple and get back to basics. Take a set of 21 bets; give yourself 11 wins and 10 losses. Now take any starting bankroll amount. To keep it simple, bet 5.5% to win 5% for each bet and put the wins and losses in any order you desire. After each bet, win or lose, adjust the next bet to 5.5% of the new bankroll…

Now, if you didn’t change the size of your bets, 52.4%, or 11 wins and 10 losses would result in breaking even…

…changing the size of your bets after each play, changing the breakeven point. How much it changes depends on the percentage bet, but the higher the percentage, the worse off you are. With my example, of 5.5%, the breakeven point nears 54%...

…Again, the percentage doesn’t matter; it’s easier to use 5.5% for this exercise…but the results are along the same lines.

Try it again and again. No matter what order you place your 11 wins and 10 losses, after those 21 bets, you always have 97.1% of your roll left.

In fact, after 110 wins and 100 losses with 5.5% bet each time, you would be down somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% of your starting bankroll…

Proper money management is essential to maximizing profits or minimizing losses and essential to securing long term profits…

...I can tell you this...if you believe in the ceiling and that you can't do better than 55-57 percent over the long haul, then I would advise changing your bet size as little as possible.

I've posted about this many times but if you change your bet size, you change your break even point. I can safely tell you that with a bankroll of about $1000 building all the way to $150,000 you should change your bet size a little more than a dozen times...and NO MORE...

...Most bettors go broke not because they can’t pick winners, but because of money management. For the most part, Scumbag is right about betting different amounts because of a perceived edge, but if you listen to his advice about betting more when you bankroll has grown, you’d better know how and when to determine your next bet size, because when you bet more, your breakeven point goes up...
...Even long term winning bettors allow this behavior to eat into their profits, often without knowing it.

If you are winning over the long term, you must change your bet size as seldom as possible to prevent the cost of progressive betting. For example, if you start with 20K, by the time you reach about 100K, you should have increased your bet amount no more than about 5 times.

This assumes your flat betting a percentage of a STARTING bankroll. If you are betting a flat, say 5.5% of a CURRENT bankroll, you are changing your bet size every bet and drastically increasing your breakeven point. Even with today’s low vig books.

Bet enough to make your return worth the investment of time and money, but don’t bet so much that you risk going broke. Everyone has a different spot here, but the effects of changing your bet apply universally.

Calling winners is not enough, proper money management is essential. With knowledge of why it’s essential, losing bettors can become winners and winning bettors can increase their return. This not just math, knowledge influences behavior… this is psychology...

We could start a Kelly debate, but then Kelly users will admit they’ve reduced to a fractional Kelly…and those guys know what they are doing!

LT is one of those that know what he’s doing, but he is likely paying more in vig than he needs to, it’s a good thing we have reduced vig these days.

So be very careful adjusting your bet size too often when betting these sports markets. This isn’t a theoretical world; it’s the real world and a harsh real world at that.

There are many ways to approach this, so listen to them all…save a few wild ones about chasing bets.

Read some of those threads and some of my other early posts for a little more background…

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2940105-two-pick-parlay.html

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2940931-vigorish-what-do-you-pay.html

Good Luck