[MaddyMax]

CONMEBOL - Copa Libertadores
-----------------------------------

Melgar PK +127 $$2000
Melgar +218 $1000

Monster bet for me. total of 6 units on this game! But don't go crazy, i only make bets like this once in a while when the reasoning is sound.

River Plate already clinched for next round, Melgar still need points. River plate with already securing next round, their priority is local league. Most regulars will be rested today and the ones that will play will be limited to short minutes. They have some key injuries in their reserves and they will field some players that barely played so far. On top of that this is a long trip to peru. Also, riverplate is a team fro3m Buenes Aires that is almost at sea level. Melgar is a team from a city in peru that is about 7650 above sea level. I wanted to pull all 6 units on Melgar moneyline but the line moved strangely so far as if money is coming in on River Plate. River Plate is the superior team and it could be some rich suckers pourting it thinking its easy bet, i don't know. But can't see River Plate winning in these conditions with mostly reserves.

[MaddyMax]

The thread title should read those interested...

[jjgold]

Soccer a tough sell here

[19th Hole]

Good Luck Mad Max. Hope you cash.

[Coolcanuck79]

I'll tail the 2 picks. I got the PK at +120 and +200 on the ML

[semibluff]

CONMEBOL - Copa Libertadores
-----------------------------------

Melgar PK +127 $$2000
Melgar +218 $1000

Monster bet for me. total of 6 units on this game! But don't go crazy, i only make bets like this once in a while when the reasoning is sound.

River Plate already clinched for next round, Melgar still need points. River plate with already securing next round, their priority is local league. Most regulars will be rested today and the ones that will play will be limited to short minutes. They have some key injuries in their reserves and they will field some players that barely played so far. On top of that this is a long trip to peru. Also, riverplate is a team fro3m Buenes Aires that is almost at sea level. Melgar is a team from a city in peru that is about 7650 above sea level. I wanted to pull all 6 units on Melgar moneyline but the line moved strangely so far as if money is coming in on River Plate. River Plate is the superior team and it could be some rich suckers pourting it thinking its easy bet, i don't know. But can't see River Plate winning in these conditions with mostly reserves.

Good luck to you. Your reasoning sounds good. I don't know if it is or not as I don't follow South American football. It's always dodgy betting on teams when you think 1 team has nothing to play for. As an example West Ham played Spurs and Liverpool recently. West Ham had nothing to play for but we hate Spurs and denying them the title was a huge incentive. We gave everything that night then threw in the towel against Liverpool because we didn't care about them.

[MaddyMax]

Good luck to you. Your reasoning sounds good. I don't know if it is or not as I don't follow South American football. It's always dodgy betting on teams when you think 1 team has nothing to play for. As an example West Ham played Spurs and Liverpool recently. West Ham had nothing to play for but we hate Spurs and denying them the title was a huge incentive. We gave everything that night then threw in the towel against Liverpool because we didn't care about them.

Yes, i agree because the odds already gets factored in. But here its different situation. Its reserves plus sea level team travelling far way to play in high altitude. Some of the reserves barely played this season. I rarely play big bets, but have to try this one even if it loses. Odds are dropping now in pinnacle. But realistic odd should be Melgar -0.5 (+110) in this situation. River Plate is far superior and i think lots of asians from Macau and others are blindly betting riverplate because of their popularity without knowing the situation.

But dont bet irresponsibly. Play with in your limits because we all know anything can happen. For me its good enough to go strong.

[deezel]

What is PK ?

[Coolcanuck79]

What is PK ?

Same as draw not bet. Draw is a push not a loss as it would be on the 3 way line.

[Steamroller]

20 mins played 0-2 lol

[jjgold]

Why is soccer so tough?

I mainly just bet English Prem

[19th Hole]

1-2 ht

[Coolcanuck79]

2-2 ... one more Melgar!

[semibluff]

Why is soccer so tough?

I mainly just bet English Prem

It isn't. The juice on the 3-line Home-Draw-Away is lower on big soccer games than on a -110 each-of-two spread bet. The English Premier League is the most analysed betting line in sports so you'll only likely to have an edge if punters are moving the line away from where it should be by betting without being fully informed or if you have information that wasn't available when the line was made - such as late injury news. It's easier to find edges on games outside the top divisions because soccer oddsmakers don't watch those games.

[jjgold]

Thanks Semi Bluff

I wonder what is bet more

NFL Football or Pre Leauge worldwide

[semibluff]

Thanks Semi Bluff

I wonder what is bet more

NFL Football or Pre Leauge worldwide

I don't know how much money is bet on US sports in Asia but the amount of money bet there on soccer is astronomical. It's a big reason why so many betting fixes start with Asian money. Interest in the Premier League is why Asian companies are now sponsoring Premier League teams. The Premier League wanted to start playing league games in Asia, much like the NFL plays games in London, because the money offered was so lucrative. Top players are moving to Chinese League teams.

[semibluff]

2-3 final score. Even great value 60-40 bets are going to lose 40% of the time.

[MaddyMax]

Sorry for the loss guys if you followed. Tough loss for me. That was a big set back in bankroll for me. Lost around 12% but i guess thats what you get when you go aggressive.
Fishy as fuk line movement though. Pinnacle had the limits raised to $8.5k in this game and the line was moving in favor of river plate even though it was bunch of back ups who rarely played. Pinnacle also had this line offline until late in the day.

[Alfa1234]

The real value in this was near the opening line when Melgar opened at about +268 earlier this week. Took a small loss as well.

[Blackballer]

Why is soccer so tough?

I mainly just bet English Prem

Soccer is not tough. You just have to be interested in it. Europeans love soccer therefore they are good at it (playing and makes handicapping a lot easier). I for myself have a huge interest in soccer and I follow all of the leagues around Europe (even the 2nd and 3rd tier leagues no joke) because I am interested in following the leagues.

[jjgold]

Men we should all start betting more soccer

USA sports impossible

[Blackballer]

Tomorrow is a big gameday in Europe soccer. Germany, English Premier League, Spain ....

[jjgold]

Baller lets give us some picks

[Alfa1234]

Belgian League tonight:

St Truiden VS Mechelen.

Mechelen +0.5 @+115 and a small amount on Mechelen to win outright @+370

Last game to win this division, Mechelen needs a big win to qualify. St Truiden doesn't care as they don't want to play European football anyway and they'll be taking it easy in anticipation of the big game VS rival Racing Genk next week.

[lom bylyri]

Everything is pretty much decided, all over Europe. Only thing left is who's getting relegated in Bundesliga. And there are 4-5 teams risking just that. Premiership has some intrigue at the bottom, but La Liga is all but wrapped up. Real needs just one point at Malaga to clinch the tittle. The best game ( not worth betting, though) is Hamburg - Wolfsburg. HSV needs to win at home to stay up. Wolfs only a draw. It will be a lonely summer for us soccer fanatics.

[lom bylyri]

I agree. It's a lot easier than baseball and football. You just have to know your shit. Plus with over 50 professional leagues ( just the first tier) all over Europe, it's not that hard to pick 2 or 3 winners every week ( not an exact science though). For me, the EPL is the hardest to handicap. But there is value in every league. You just have to follow...

[jjgold]

A lot of good info came out of this thread


Excellent work men

[lom bylyri]

Just took a look : Very confusing. How can a team near the bottom with 30 points, play for the Europa League qualifier belgian play-offs ? And why they want to beat Genk and not Mechelen ? God knows I've bet on Gibraltar football before, but this shit is over my head.

St Truiden VS Mechelen.

Mechelen +0.5 @+115 and a small amount on Mechelen to win outright @+370

Last game to win this division, Mechelen needs a big win to qualify. St Truiden doesn't care as they don't want to play European football anyway and they'll be taking it easy in anticipation of the big game VS rival Racing Genk next week.[/QUOTE]

[Alfa1234]

It's complicated.

After regular league: top 6 plays mini league (10 games) to decide who is champion etc.

Other 10 teams are divided into 2 small groups, with 3 teams from our 2nd league included in that so 2 groups of 6 teams each. Winner of every group (last game played today) plays 1 final game against the winner of the other group (in this case that'll be St Truiden VS Racing Genk). Winner of that game plays against the 4th placed team of the top 6 mini league to decide who gets the last European ticket.

Bet you still don't get it. No-one outside of Belgium does. I won't bother trying to explain the rules for our 2nd division promotion.

[lom bylyri]

You think ? Do the teams themselves understand all that clusterfcuk ? haha. I've seen all kind of playoff mess ( Bulgaria, Serbia) but yours is something else. But if you keep up with them and know what you doing, I bet there's some value there somewhere. Good luck.

[Alfa1234]

7-0. Brutal.

[SportsMushroom]

dont beat yourself up, yesterday i made an under 2.5 bet on a game that ended with a score of 7-4