This hockey game action has me scratching my head...

**jjgold** · 05-10-17, 07:30 PM

Nothing

Ducks home and good

**KVB** · 05-10-17, 07:38 PM

I would think money would be coming on Edmonton, if anything. I have Edmonton winning by almost two goals and value is presented on that moneyline.

I think the public likes the away moneyline as well. It feels like any money would be stacked on Edmonton with the books barely moving the line...perhaps on purpose.

I haven't played anything yet.

**RangeFinder** · 05-10-17, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I would think money would be coming on Edmonton, if anything. I have Edmonton winning by almost two goals and value is presented on that moneyline.

I think the public likes the away moneyline as well. It feels like any money would be stacked on Edmonton with the books barely moving the line...perhaps on purpose.

I haven't played anything yet.

I played Oil last night thinking I was getting a good number early, but turns out I could've got the same number right now. That really surprised me. Like you mentioned, maybe the books are not moving on purpose.

**lakerboy** · 05-10-17, 08:09 PM

I'm not liking the movement

**GzaTheGenius** · 05-10-17, 08:15 PM

I got EDM at +125 now it's at -105 on my book

**KVB** · 05-10-17, 08:44 PM

I figured this thing could hit a pick. All that money piling up has to give...sometimes.

Maybe some books are breaking sooner than others.

**omedo** · 05-11-17, 03:56 AM

Originally posted by KVB

I would think money would be coming on Edmonton, if anything. I have Edmonton winning by almost two goals and value is presented on that moneyline.

I think the public likes the away moneyline as well. It feels like any money would be stacked on Edmonton with the books barely moving the line...perhaps on purpose.

I haven't played anything yet.

How much of a weight do you put on the playoff games stats?
I dont cap hockey but just seeing some metrics, i cant see why Edmonton would be favorite and by two goals.

**jjgold** · 05-11-17, 06:27 AM

When something looks too good more than not it loses

**RangeFinder** · 05-11-17, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

When something looks too good more than not it loses

Not so much that is it was the strange betting, or lack thereof. What's even more weird, is the game played out just as strange. Oilers had no energy, and this was a Game 7? Just really strange.

I'll take my lumps and move on.

**GzaTheGenius** · 05-11-17, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by RangeFinder

Not so much that is it was the strange betting, or lack thereof. What's even more weird, is the game played out just as strange. Oilers had no energy, and this was a Game 7? Just really strange.

I'll take my lumps and move on.

The Flying V was just too much, McDavid too young never saw the movie..

Bombay had hisbguys ready

**nyplayer33** · 05-11-17, 11:23 AM

How about this...there is no room on ice..none. that's why shots don't get to net..like late in 3rd. As to betting..it was a pick game...what were you looking for?? Game 7 tossup. The players are quicker..bigger..on top of you quicker. It's gard to get good scoring opportunities.

**KVB** · 05-12-17, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by omedo

How much of a weight do you put on the playoff games stats?
I dont cap hockey but just seeing some metrics, i cant see why Edmonton would be favorite and by two goals.

The forecast stacks percentages and Edmonton, for the most part, was the better team with relevant stats. Factors in which Anaheim was better was not by much better and not influential enough. The recent game where 5 goals were scored in the first period suspiciously made a difference in all the right spots. This is why I never did bet the game, even though it moved toward the forecast. Remember when I asked who creates the stats?

The markets aren’t always as efficient as everyone believes and if we’ve learned anything it’s that these inefficiencies can be intentional. The line was too far out of whack for too specific of a reason and experience says to pass.

Even though the recent game could throw it off, the forecast was still pretty sharp. The line movement was held, but it was real and eventually showed. Value bets don’t always win, but sometimes we can learn when they lose. For that hockey game, I saw plenty of warnings saying the forecast may not work.

It was enough to stay off the play, but not enough to go the other way and counter the forecast. I probably should have considered an Anaheim trade at its cheapest and would say the same even if they had lost.

Given the blowout in the game before I think the books got what they wanted pre-game and the result they wanted by the end of that NHL game.

**RangeFinder** · 05-12-17, 05:00 PM

Damn them, lol