Unless you thoroughly understand the Correct answer to the 'Monty Hall Problem'

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 12:21 PM

Shut up

**jjgold** · 03-14-17, 12:22 PM

sammy take a break.....come bACK OPENING DAY BASEBALL

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:23 PM

What is the monty hall problem?

**Sam Odom** · 03-14-17, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by BrickJames

What is the monty hall problem?

wiki it

correct answer is all about thinking outside the box and thinking counterintuitively

both necessary in being a winning sports bettor

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:32 PM

The correct answers is to switch your pick from door 1 to door 2, I recently read about it in a book called "Chances Are".

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by BrickJames

What is the monty hall problem?

just a bullshit theory the old man sammy believes in. the fact is you always keep your door it's a 50/50 chance regardless. The old man is delusional

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:35 PM

When I get home in a little while I will reread the few paragraphs regarding this question and explain why it's better to switch.

I'm kind of hungover and red wine today so I can seem to recall the reason behind it

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 12:37 PM

I know the reasoning James buts it's all bullshit. don't believe everything you read.

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

I know the reasoning James buts it's all bullshit. don't believe everything you read.

It's actually really good read I would recommend it to any gambler

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by BrickJames

It's actually really good read I would recommend it to any gambler

yea so is Moby Dick

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

yea so is Moby Dick

Never read it.

**UncleDoc** · 03-14-17, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

just a bullshit theory the old man sammy believes in. the fact is you always keep your door it's a 50/50 chance regardless. The old man is delusional

Unfortunately you're incorrect. This is a basic principe taught in undergrad statistics classes with 1000s of other PhD holders having their proofs easily accessible online if you care to look them up and fully understand the concept. I'd expand on this but students are off campus for spring break and it's time for me to pack for Vegas and go have some fun too.

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by BrickJames

Never read it.

Good fiction novel

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:51 PM

You want to know what's really crazy. A deck of cards can be shuffled more different ways than there are grains of sand on all the beaches in the world.

In fact they say it's likely that no two decks of cards have ever been shuffled the exact same way.

Fukkin mind boggling!

**Foxx** · 03-14-17, 12:51 PM

Always go with your first instinct. Never second guess.

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by UncleDoc

Unfortunately you're incorrect. This is a basic principe taught in undergrad statistics classes with 1000s of other PhD holders having their proofs easily accessible online if you care to look them up and fully understand the concept. I'd expand on this but students are off campus for spring break and it's time for me to pack for Vegas and go have some fun too.

Already looked online. Don't give a shit.

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:52 PM

It has something to do with the fact that when you originally picked you only had a 33% chance but now you're given a 50-50 chance and you're supposed to switch your pick to door two

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Foxx

Always go with your first instinct. Never second guess.

Just like betting on sports. When I've switched my pick I've lost more times than when I would of kept my original pick.

**Snowball** · 03-14-17, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by BrickJames

You want to know what's really crazy. A deck of cards can be shuffled more different ways than there are grains of sand on all the beaches in the world.

In fact they say it's likely that no two decks of cards have ever been shuffled the exact same way.

Fukkin mind boggling!

I call b.s.

**Snowball** · 03-14-17, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by BrickJames

It has something to do with the fact that when you originally picked you only had a 33% chance but now you're given a 50-50 chance and you're supposed to switch your pick to door two

yeah, then the nerds jackoff over it.

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

I call b.s.

Look it up smarty pants

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by UncleDoc

Unfortunately you're incorrect. This is a basic principe taught in undergrad statistics classes with 1000s of other PhD holders having their proofs easily accessible online if you care to look them up and fully understand the concept. I'd expand on this but students are off campus for spring break and it's time for me to pack for Vegas and go have some fun too.

Are you the janitor at Harvard like Good Will Hunting?

**IAG** · 03-14-17, 01:04 PM

**IAG** · 03-14-17, 01:05 PM

**Sam Odom** · 03-14-17, 01:07 PM

hey sweety

**jjgold** · 03-14-17, 01:07 PM

sammy takes 3 steps away from the computer it will be ok

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 01:08 PM

how did I know iag would pop in lol

**IAG** · 03-14-17, 01:09 PM

You need to remember the host knows where the goat is from the beginning....always to your advantage to switch. Switching a bet on a game is not analogous.

**Sam Odom** · 03-14-17, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

wiki it

correct answer is all about thinking outside the box and thinking counterintuitively

both necessary in being a winning sports bettor

Poster NoCoin is a good example of someone who can think counterintuitively

**IAG** · 03-14-17, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

how did I know iag would pop in lol

IAG loves her some Monty Hall problem!!

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by IAG

IAG loves her some Monty Hall problem!!

even though she is incorrect ;-)

**IAG** · 03-14-17, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

even though she is incorrect ;-)

I'm not incorrect Smoke.

**BrickJames** · 03-14-17, 01:23 PM

It makes perfect sense because you had a 33% chance of picking the car and a 66% chance of picking the goat once one door is revealed you have a 66% chance of picking the car if you switch.

**IAG** · 03-14-17, 01:23 PM

Look at it this way

Here’s another way to visualize this. Imagine that instead of three doors, Monty Hall presents you with 100 doors; behind 99 of them are goats, and behind one of them is the car. You select door #1, and your initial odds of winning the car are now 1/100:

Then, let’s suppose that Monty Hall opens 98 of the other doors, revealing a goat behind each one. Now you’re left with two choices: keep door #1, or switch to door #100:

When you select door #1, there is a 99/100 chance that the car is behind one of the other doors. The fact that Monty Hall reveals 98 goats does not change these initial odds -- it merely "shifts" that 99/100 chance to door #100. You can either stick with your original 1/100 odds pick, or switch to door #100, with a much higher probability of winning the car.