Unless you thoroughly understand the Correct answer to the 'Monty Hall Problem'

**RudyRuetigger** · 03-14-17, 03:30 PM

I guaranfukkintee next week you are going to tell us we better know .999 repeating is the same as 1

**IAG** · 03-14-17, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

no

the Prime Numbers

hi Sam!

**jtoler** · 03-14-17, 03:41 PM

I agree with Samuel, its how I was able to start winning on a consistent basis many years ago.

**Sam Odom** · 03-14-17, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by IAG

hi Sam!

Originally posted by Sam Odom

hey sweety

**jjgold** · 03-14-17, 03:50 PM

Sammy grow some fukkin balls and bet $1000 or more on a game with money you do not have

**Chi_archie** · 03-14-17, 03:56 PM

Wait.....

are are we allowed to Fuk the goat?

**Sam Odom** · 03-14-17, 03:57 PM

Archie... only during a Gay Pride Parade

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by IAG

No i don't. I do not even know who it is...and either do you! I think you must be just trolling now my friend. I'm baffled. But I've been there and u are my pal..so let's just agree to disagree. After the great apostrophe debate. I don't have much left.

Just playful banter my friend. Cheers

**RudyRuetigger** · 03-14-17, 04:13 PM

smokey only thing we can agree on is that you are an expert ass-whiper...that is because you are full of shit

**Smoke** · 03-14-17, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

smokey only thing we can agree on is that you are an expert ass-whiper...that is because you are full of shit

Rudy grab me a fukkin sixer of tall boys bro

**gauchojake** · 03-14-17, 04:48 PM

Less taxes owning a goat. It will save you the hassle of maintaining a car too. Goats eat trash so you can just feed it trash to cut that expense. The goat is +EV so that's why you don't switch.

**RudyRuetigger** · 03-14-17, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

Rudy grab me a fukkin sixer of tall boys bro

ok chief

**RudyRuetigger** · 03-14-17, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Less taxes owning a goat. It will save you the hassle of maintaining a car too. Goats eat trash so you can just feed it trash to cut that expense. The goat is +EV so that's why you don't switch.

jake I am not judging but I saw in the news sometimes goats fulfill sexual needs as well

**gauchojake** · 03-14-17, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

jake I am not judging but I saw in the news sometimes goats fulfill sexual needs as well

M$M lies

All part of the Zionist's conspiracy to control you

**Sam Odom** · 03-15-17, 10:32 AM

good discussion

hope our bottom-line increases

**Foxx** · 03-15-17, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

Wait.....
are are we allowed to Fuk the goat?

Keep your hands off Tom Brady.

**Buckandadime** · 03-15-17, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

jake I am not judging but I saw in the news sometimes goats fulfill sexual needs as well

That's why guys with goats wear boots.. Goats can't get away

**sweethook** · 03-15-17, 07:53 PM

as a young man working i would have long talks with a shovel , got were i could understand the answer to anything .

**Chi_archie** · 03-15-17, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Less taxes owning a goat. It will save you the hassle of maintaining a car too. Goats eat trash so you can just feed it trash to cut that expense. The goat is +EV so that's why you don't switch.

other than a good fuk buddy

you missed two HUGH benefits

you can rent it out to "mow" grass, yes its a thing

http://rentagoat.com/

and b) goat milk brah

sell that shit to the hipsters

**gummo** · 03-15-17, 08:45 PM

Somebody needs to bump the Birthday Paradox.

**QuantumLeap** · 03-15-17, 08:46 PM

Once you realize how the problem is worded one can see the solution to the Monty Hall problem is shown in the video. However, it's a matter of semantics, or word play. If it were worded the way most people would say it then it should be a 50/50 proposition.

**semibluff** · 03-15-17, 10:30 PM

An easier way to see The Monty Hall Problem:

You have a normal pack of 52 playing cards. You are asked to guess which card is the Queen of Hearts. You pick a card and put it face down to your left. You put the other 51 cards face down to your right. You ask a friend to go through the 51 cards and pick out the Queen of Hearts with the proviso that if it isn't there your friend can then pick any other card of their choice. Your friend does as you ask and puts the card face down to your right. Your friend then puts the other 50 cards face down on top of the card to your right.

1) What are the odds of the Queen of Hearts being to your left?
2) What are the odds of the Queen of Hearts being to your right?
3) Assuming your friend didn't make an error what are the odds of the Queen of Hearts being in the top 50 cards on your right?

If you can work out the answers to those 3 simple questions it should be easy to determine whether you should switch or not when the top 50 cards to your right are removed to leave you with 1 card on either side.

**TPowell** · 03-15-17, 11:43 PM

Have to admit, I have finance degrees and a statistical background but I still don't get this. You can't just say that I have a 1/3 chance at something when only 2 doors are left BUT if I swap doors to the other one, I now have 2/3 chance. My chances are DAMN SURE not 1/3 when I'm picking between 2 doors. You have to adjust the odds. Imagine me saying I have a 1/52 chance of drawing an ace out of a shuffled deck of cards. After each non-ace drawn, I stick to my gut and say I have a 1/52 chance of drawing an ace. That is outright wrong. There are no longer 52 cards in the deck so your odds can't be 1/52 anymore. I'm really tired right now for some reason so maybe I'm not thinking straight. Would love to hear where my logic goes wrong though

**semibluff** · 03-16-17, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Have to admit, I have finance degrees and a statistical background but I still don't get this. You can't just say that I have a 1/3 chance at something when only 2 doors are left BUT if I swap doors to the other one, I now have 2/3 chance. My chances are DAMN SURE not 1/3 when I'm picking between 2 doors. You have to adjust the odds. Imagine me saying I have a 1/52 chance of drawing an ace out of a shuffled deck of cards. After each non-ace drawn, I stick to my gut and say I have a 1/52 chance of drawing an ace. That is outright wrong. There are no longer 52 cards in the deck so your odds can't be 1/52 anymore. I'm really tired right now for some reason so maybe I'm not thinking straight. Would love to hear where my logic goes wrong though

If the door option being removed was chosen at random there would be a 1 in 3 chance your original pick was the winner, a 1 in 3 chance the remaining door was the winner, and a 1 in 3 chance the door removed was the winner. Thus your original choice and the 1 remaining choice would be equally likely to be the winner. That is NOT what happens here. The door that is removed is NEVER the winner.

**IAG** · 03-16-17, 05:57 AM

Originally posted by semibluff

If the door option being removed was chosen at random there would be a 1 in 3 chance your original pick was the winner, a 1 in 3 chance the remaining door was the winner, and a 1 in 3 chance the door removed was the winner. Thus your original choice and the 1 remaining choice would be equally likely to be the winner. That is NOT what happens here. The door that is removed is NEVER the winner.

EXACTLY

Remember you have 2/3 chance of being wrong (picking goat not car) when you pick initially. The odds are ALWAYS against you picking correctly with the three doors. The other door removed/shown has to always be a goat...it is not random...ALWAYS a goat. So now you're have 1 door with car and 1 car with goat.
The question is whether it benefits you to switch. If the odds were 1 in 3 initially, then switching would benefit you 2 out of 3 times. The 1 in 3 times you actually picked the car on first try, you would not benefit from switching, but if you are looking at what gives you greatest chance of winning the car, most of the time you switch.

**Gaze73** · 03-16-17, 08:03 AM

The chances are 50/50.

It's like when you bet on some soccer team at +200 which has theoretically 33.3% chance to win. And when they score the first goal, their odds drop to evens. They are now 50% likely to win the game even though you didn't change your selection. The flawed logic of monty hall suggests that they still have only 33% to win despite scoring the first goal.

**Kaabee** · 03-16-17, 09:58 AM

What happens if you pick a goat? Host shows you the other goat and then you switch and you get the car.

What happens if you pick the car? Host shows you a goat and you switch and get the other goat.

Only way you lose is if you initially picked the car. Therefore you will lose 1/3 and win 2/3 by switching every time.

**yisman** · 03-16-17, 10:11 AM

spam

**5918mike** · 03-16-17, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

The chances are 50/50.

It's like when you bet on some soccer team at +200 which has theoretically 33.3% chance to win. And when they score the first goal, their odds drop to evens. They are now 50% likely to win the game even though you didn't change your selection. The flawed logic of monty hall suggests that they still have only 33% to win despite scoring the first goal.

I don't know what's more entertaining, people who refuse to accept it or the ones who think they are coming up with an explanation to show it. Always switch fools!

**5918mike** · 03-16-17, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by Kaabee

What happens if you pick a goat? Host shows you the other goat and then you switch and you get the car.

What happens if you pick the car? Host shows you a goat and you switch and get the other goat.

Only way you lose is if you initially picked the car. Therefore you will lose 1/3 and win 2/3 by switching every time.

It's so easy to understand for people who get it, hard to understand how others don't get this or the many other explanations.

**TPowell** · 03-16-17, 10:36 AM

My point is why do you not update the odds when one door is taken away? There are 2 doors left and only 1 has a goat. Regardless of how many doors there were to start, you have 2 left and 1 is a sure fire winner.

**Kaabee** · 03-16-17, 10:43 AM

You do update the odds. It went from 1/3 1/3 1/3 to 1/3 2/3. Binary doesn't have to be 1/2 1/2.

**5918mike** · 03-16-17, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

My point is why do you not update the odds when one door is taken away? There are 2 doors left and only 1 has a goat. Regardless of how many doors there were to start, you have 2 left and 1 is a sure fire winner.

Because that door is always a goat and you already know that. Go back to the original choices but separate the cards into 1 card, or the other 2 together as your choices. Would you agree that you have a 1/3 chance with the single card and a 2/3 chance with the other pair of cards. If given the choice here you would always choose the pair correct? In that pair you know for a fact that one of those cards is a goat. Showing the goat, that you already know is there, doesn't change anything.

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 03-16-17, 11:49 AM

To those who don't comprehend: The game is not completely random; your selection is random, but the host's selection is not.

**IAG** · 03-16-17, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

To those who don't comprehend: The game is not completely random; your selection is random, but the host's selection is not.

bingo