G.S-Chi Under 218.5. Good number all the way to 217.
Still college ball to look at.
Good luck if you do.
Still college ball to look at.
Good luck if you do.
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The Golden State Warriors run about as deep as Phil Jackson’s high school yearbook quote, which is why the Dubs can absorb the loss of star forward Kevin Durant (MCL sprain and a tibial bone bruise) unlike any other NBA team in that situation.
That surplus of talent is one reason why Golden State’s Over/Under results could get reversed down the home stretch of the schedule, offering NBA Over bettors value in the first few games without Durant.
The Warriors enter Thursday’s road date with the Chicago Bulls at 26-34 Over/Under on the season (fifth best Under bet), including a 10-21 O/U mark in the role of visitors (68% Under), boasting the lowest defensive field goal percentage in the NBA (43.6 %). Thursday's total opened at 219.5 points, with Golden State playing Under in three straight games and four of its last five.
Durant’s scoring prowess as a matchup nightmare (averaging 25.3 ppg) overshadows just how valuable a defender he is to Golden State. And, while the defending Western Conference champs have the weapons to make up for a lot of KD's offensive output in the aggregate, it's what he's done on the other end of the court that will shake the makeup of the NBA's top team.
With Durant on the floor with the Warriors’ other starters, the team boasts a defensive efficiency of 98.2. When Durant is on the sideline, that number plummets to 109.4 – a difference of more than 11 points. At a Stretch Armstrong-like 6-foot-9, Durant is long enough to guard bigger forwards around the basket but he’s also fleet enough to face up against guards on the perimeter. He leads the team in blocks (1.6 bpg), rebounds (8.2 rpg), and records 1.1 steals per game – and that’s not counting how many bad shots and passes he forces with his length.Comment -
Thanks for the article. I read many others on this game. When I did the numbers, I came to 216 on the total.
I also looked at betting patterns and every indication is groups are on the Under here.
I just hope I'm right.
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Ranger forget these plays man
Lets go get pussy
Where do you live?
I will fly outComment -
Only one CBB play so far also.
Iowa-Wisc Under 143.5Comment -
Interesting. I never thought of him as a defensive player, even though he ought to be. Whenever I see him play he looks weak -saving his energy for the other end. I'm wary of plus-minus stats. Durant shares the floor with some quality defenders when he's out there. When he sits they play loosey-goosey and so the scoring is inevitably higher.Comment -
Matt Barnes seems like a good pickup for the Warriors because he's a team player. Can;t shoot though -he's worse now than when they had him on the first go around!Comment -
Not sure about this number Range. I think this line was driven up earlier to be slammed back down. My non predictive public gauge says Wisconsin wins by 9 in a 147 point game. The sharpest forecast I have shows a 144 point game with Iowa actually getting the edge in the raw score moneyline.
I think at the height of 146 it was getting hit hard. Now at 143.5 the edge may have eroded. This game could be a tight on the total, coming down to the final shots...that usually bodes well for the OVER backers.
I also think the market is reflecting a thirst for Wisconsin to turn things around after recent results with the 12 point or so line. The books had to open OVER 10 for that reason, not simply for unsophisticated bettors, but for some of those sharp analysts who can sometimes reflect the same sentiments. That high line should be getting plenty of underdog tickets...just look at both my public gauge and sharp line.
Despite the tickets the line remains high and I think it's opened a window of value for the dog bettor, making it a good bet, but not necessarily the winning bet. This could be a tough issue to settle meaning, once again, it comes down to the last shots.
Regardless, getting Iowa +12.5 may be a very good bet tonight.
Good Luck.
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I know there are many ways to handicap and successful ones can reach different conclusions, but I have Golden State winning this game 115-105 for 220 points. The public gauge says 114-104.
The line is dropping could once again be the result of a market over reaction. I think a number of groups are facing off on this issue and the movement is not warranted based on decision making numbers. The market may be miscalculating Durant's effect on the totals and if this causing the drop I would probably counter the movement at 217 and take the OVER.
It will be interesting to see if this line will get to 217. I think at 217.5 they books will start getting that OVER money and they will have to decide if they want it, or want more of it. After all, they opened pretty high to begin with, encouraging an early pass for the OVER bettors.
Good Luck tonight.
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Good info regardless
Although plays not doing well
Let's go on a runComment -
Thanks for the input KVB.
In the Iowa-Wisconsin game, I only came up with 140 leaving some room for my play. I think 147 is too high, obviously. When March Madness approaches, I tend to lean toward lower scoring games because teams tend to want to save energy and play a half court game with lots of subs in and out which tends to lead toward lower scoring games. I'm just basing this on experience over watching over the years. I think with the number movement more tend to agree with the lower scoring pre tournament games. But, the past doesn't guarantee the future, as you well know.
As far as the G.S-Chicago game, I think it lands around 215-216 based on my number crunching. I know there are thousands of ways to handicap totals, and I love they way you look at games because it's similar to what I do, but I trust my numbers and if the line moves my direction, it confirms I am at least a little better than the opener.
Again, thanks for your comments.Comment -
Good Stuff Range, good stuff.
I took Iowa +12 (-105) so far, talked myself into it above...lol.
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May I have the +2 in the yellow shirt?Comment -
I see 142.5 now. They not only blew through my 144 but if it was manipulated on the opener, plenty of room has been given. I smell a middle there and went ahead with OVER 142.5 (-105) for Iowa vs. Wisconsin.
Good Luck Range, with a 143 point game, we both win.
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I tried to pull the trigger everywhere at 142 but got none of it, none of it.
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Try live betting, eventually I think you'll see it, however heavy juice probably. Live betting can be brutal on vig.Comment -
Also looking to see if late money hits Phoenix over in the NBA. I had them losing by 2. If I see the line at Pinn hit 2.5, I'm going to try to be quick and grab 4 at another shop.Comment -
I had to do a double take. 2 minutes before tip Pinn and 5 Dimes goes from Phoenix +3.5 to PK. I fired at BetDSI at +4.Comment -
Good trade on Phoenix, I had them losing by 3 points, with a raw score just under 3.
I saw Wiscy/Iowa at 136 live, now it s 142.5 just seconds later...lol. It'll probably play that pace all game long.
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Yea, so far the Iowa-Wisc is playing how I visioned, but it could change 2nd half. I never count my chickens until it's baked and on my table.Comment -
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Nice hit! Yea, that moneyline would've been sweet.
Thanks for the props. I needed a night like this. Been a struggle the last few weeks but that's this game we play. It's hardly ever smooth, lolComment -
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last night dead on
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