Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal Aussie Open final Prediction/Bet

[wikkidinsane]

Roger Federr will finally overcome Nadal dominance against him at the AO Open Final. Nadal and Federer are playing close to their best tennis at the moment and it will be an interesting match. Guys a sports book gave me plus money to back Roger Federer. Are they Nuts? This is my final and biggest bet of the tournament:

Jan 27, 2017
11:54 AM

#1701722812420
Placed byWeb

Single #1701722812420
Tennis - Moneyline
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer +110 Jan 29, 2017 3:30 AM



30 units to win 33

[Cuse0323]

Good luck man. I really hope Fed wins. I'm not sure I can bet it. I know I will, but damn this is a toss up. The ultimate toss up.

[Art Vandelay]

Agree! Rafa is in great shape but that 5 setter vs Dimitrov "has" to take something out of him. Club Fed is rested and if he's ever going to add another Grand Slam title, this is his best chance.

[Cuse0323]

That leg worries me. If he doesn't get the first serve in at a great percentage then it may be over. I want him to win this so bad for 2009. To help, I will watch, and not bet.

Maybe.

[jjgold]

agree

[Goat Milk]

The short ball from Rafa off both the forehand and the 2nd serve will be his downfall

[slayer14]

Cant see how Federer can beat Nadal, i see the highlights of Nadal during this week and he looks to be playing his best tennis 2008 to 2011 same this week, Federer wont get any cheap points from his serve and will be forced into errors.

[Goat Milk]

Fed will win plenty of cheap points on his serve. Good amount of coming to the net as well. Courts are too fast here. Dimitrov is basically a poor man's Federer in every aspect. Serve. Movement. Forehand. His game is literally a replica of Federer's and you saw how much Nadal struggled with Dimitrov's power on this super quick surface. Fastest it's played in a decade maybe. Essentially took a meltdown from Dimitrov to win. Nadal is the best player here, but his return off the serve -- he's hitting it way too short consistently. And also, Rafa's second serve is not where it was 5 years ago at his best....so he'll need to work on that a bit before the French and get it corrected.

Only way Rafa wins this match is if Federer gives it away.

[slayer14]

Fed will win plenty of cheap points on his serve. Good amount of coming to the net as well. Courts are too fast here. Dimitrov is basically a poor man's Federer in every aspect. Serve. Movement. Forehand. His game is literally a replica of Federer's and you saw how much Nadal struggled with Dimitrov's power on this super quick surface. Fastest it's played in a decade maybe. Essentially took a meltdown from Dimitrov to win. Nadal is the best player here, but his return off the serve -- he's hitting it way too short consistently. And also, Rafa's second serve is not where it was 5 years ago at his best....so he'll need to work on that a bit before the French and get it corrected.

Only way Rafa wins this match is if Federer gives it away.

What about the Canadian Roanic nadal demolish him on hard court a few days ago

[Goat Milk]

What about the Canadian Roanic nadal demolish him on hard court a few days ago

Raonic can't beat Nadal 3 sets imo. In a best of 3, he has a chance. But also -- Raonic had the flu a couple days before that match, and Nadal made him run side to side. He broke him down. He broke his spirit. That was an obvious pick. I don't blame you for taking Rafa in the finals. He can win. I've been riding him all tournament while most "experts" have been taking Zverev, Raonic, Monfils, etc. When you watch Rafa for as long as we have, you know when he's back. I detected it from the first match.

BUT. Federer is as loose as I've ever seen him. He always loses to Rafa in the finals because he gets tight. He's playing with house money here and he's playing offensive tennis. And with a guy that moves to the net like Federer....Rafa is going to have to hit a lot of passing shots. like A LOT. Dimitrov was hitting beautiful balls but it was his and his coach's mistake for not coming to the net. You have to come to the net on a quick surface like this against Nadal and Djokovic. Perhaps he's not as confident in his net game. But to beat Rafa on these quick courts, you have to mix things up. And Fed is a master at that.

Nadal will be winning plenty of majors going forward. So I won't feel bad for him if he loses.

[wikkidinsane]

"Rafa is going to have to hit a lot of passing shots. like A LOT."

Thats key right there. Nadal was really off in semis and got broken a lot. Federer got that extra day of rest too his AO losing streak vs Nadal end tomorrow morning

[Don_Omarion]

I still think Nadal can win this in 3 or 4 but can not bet on it because I think Nadal may let Roger wins.crazy right? Nadal did not win GS since 2 years and that is awful for him .. I do not know but a gun to my head I take Nadal ML

[gojetsgomoxies]

so courts are faster? why is that? did they change the surface?

has federer, having moved to larger racquet head, got rid of his high number of "extreme unforced" errors? he used to have so many vs. nadal that he was basically completely confused 80 minutes into most matches vs. nadal. he usually did well for 1st 30 minutes but then always disaster. maybe exclude wimbledon which was always perfect for fed's huge backhand cuts.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Raonic can't beat Nadal 3 sets imo. In a best of 3, he has a chance. But also -- Raonic had the flu a couple days before that match, and Nadal made him run side to side. He broke him down. He broke his spirit. That was an obvious pick. I don't blame you for taking Rafa in the finals. He can win. I've been riding him all tournament while most "experts" have been taking Zverev, Raonic, Monfils, etc. When you watch Rafa for as long as we have, you know when he's back. I detected it from the first match.
.

i'm canadian but i agree with you completely...... rafa - or any of the big 4 - over raonic was obvious. raonic would probably need "best of one set" to beat rafa. might be able to beat the other 3 "best of 3" at AO.... raonic seems to me to be a mixture of berdych and tsonga - maybe isner too. or maybe isner/tsonga mix. maybe the career success of berdych.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Nadal in four sets.

[El Nino]

Nadal in four sets.

That's what Im on. Got Nadal, Nadal 1st set, Nadal 3 sets to 1. Hopefully, it's a great match.

[rizespor]

I hope so. I've hardly watched either to be able to make an informed decision but would be nice to see him win #18

[Dollars2Donuts]

i'm canadian but i agree with you completely...... rafa - or any of the big 4 - over raonic was obvious. raonic would probably need "best of one set" to beat rafa. might be able to beat the other 3 "best of 3" at AO.... raonic seems to me to be a mixture of berdych and tsonga - maybe isner too. or maybe isner/tsonga mix. maybe the career success of berdych.

Not only Canadian, you are from Winnipeg....and work at Moxie's. Downtown location?

[Dollars2Donuts]

I don't want to defend why I am on Federer....and it feels like I always crush these events from Day 1 until the Finals and then get absolutely killed in the last match betting on the side that I should have known could not win.

I feel as if this may be a repeat of all of those past tournaments. This is what I have:

Graded Wagers | Transactions | Archived Wagers
Pending Wagers

* See more info by moving your mouse to values marked with an asterisk (*).

Showing Wagers 1 - 5 of 5
Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
423163204-1 1/29/17 12:41am $228.10 $262.32 Pending 1/29/17 3:30am ATP Tennis 101 Roger Federer +115* vs Rafael Nadal
423163184-1 1/29/17 12:40am $500.00 $605.00 Pending 1/29/17 3:30am Reduced Tennis 101 Roger Federer +121* vs Rafael Nadal
422828849-1 1/27/17 9:58am $1,000.00 $1,150.00 Pending 1/28/17 7:00pm ATP Tennis 101 Roger Federer +115* vs Rafael Nadal

This is probably going to look ugly, but it adds up to:

$1728.10 laid on Federer to win:

$2017.32

That's everything I currently have in my 5dimes account.

GL tonight everyone.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Not only Canadian, you are from Winnipeg....and work at Moxie's. Downtown location?

I wish.............. spent alot of $$$$ there though.............. hottest, nicest girls on earth working there - but that pretty much describes all women in winnipeg (fyi, i don't live there any longer)

[Dollars2Donuts]

I wish.............. spent alot of $$$$ there though.............. hottest, nicest girls on earth working there - but that pretty much describes all women in winnipeg (fyi, i don't live there any longer)

I used to live there, and I grew up working at Moxie's. Became pretty tight with the ownership group.

Living in Vancouver now.

[Bic]

I think Nadal wins easily - Federer is currently injured.

I think Nadal in 4 sets. But I personally bet on the 5 sets, loved the odds.

[Bic]

I don't want to defend why I am on Federer....and it feels like I always crush these events from Day 1 until the Finals and then get absolutely killed in the last match betting on the side that I should have known could not win.

I feel as if this may be a repeat of all of those past tournaments. This is what I have:

Graded Wagers | Transactions | Archived Wagers
Pending Wagers

* See more info by moving your mouse to values marked with an asterisk (*).

Showing Wagers 1 - 5 of 5
Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
423163204-1 1/29/17 12:41am $228.10 $262.32 Pending 1/29/17 3:30am ATP Tennis 101 Roger Federer +115* vs Rafael Nadal
423163184-1 1/29/17 12:40am $500.00 $605.00 Pending 1/29/17 3:30am Reduced Tennis 101 Roger Federer +121* vs Rafael Nadal
422828849-1 1/27/17 9:58am $1,000.00 $1,150.00 Pending 1/28/17 7:00pm ATP Tennis 101 Roger Federer +115* vs Rafael Nadal

This is probably going to look ugly, but it adds up to:

$1728.10 laid on Federer to win:

$2017.32

That's everything I currently have in my 5dimes account.

GL tonight everyone.

For your sake mate, I hope I am wrong about tonight!

[Dollars2Donuts]

I am exceptionally nervous about this match. I just hope it is a match, if Rafa rolls him....that will be pretty upsetting.

Go Feds!

[Cuse0323]

I am exceptionally nervous about this match. I just hope it is a match, if Rafa rolls him....that will be pretty upsetting.

Go Feds!

Right there with ya. I feel like I threw money away. But, Fed can win. Just has to serve, and be able to move a bit. Crack that backhand without too many errors. Easier said than done. Nadal looks really good, but isn't getting the ball deep consistently.

I don't care about the money. I want Fed to win this for him, really. He has to win in 4. Running around for 5 just won't do it, unless he gets an easy break in the 5th, and smacks first serves. Hopefully this will be fun. Come on Fed. I think this is his time for 18.

[nocturnal012]

Fed +120 and nadal -138 on bet365 prebet at the moment. But in bet365's live it's fed +110 and nadal is still -138. makes me think that bet365 believes that nadal win this

[MiDNiTe]

would like fed to win but nadal just owns him just having a bet on fed first set as cant see him winning if he doesnt take first set

[Cuse0323]

So awkward looking in that little booth. Patty smushed in the middle looks drunk, or drugged up, or both.

[juicername]

Fed +120 and nadal -138 on bet365 prebet at the moment. But in bet365's live it's fed +110 and nadal is still -138. makes me think that bet365 believes that nadal win this

Really, you just realized that the bookie thinks the player listed as the worst odds is more likely to win the game?

[Cuse0323]

So hard to watch Fed against Nadal. Just relies on the backhand too much. Could get around a ball, and hammer a forehand but doesn't. Has to win this first. He looks good though. Could have had a break chance without a taper. Seems to be saving energy for service when it's out of reach.

[Conqueror]

You shouldn't let your fanatical attachment to a player get into your head when it comes to gambling. Just saying.

[Cuse0323]

Let's goooo

[MiDNiTe]

sweet won my bet with no stress and now can relax and watch rest of match with no heart attack

[Plaza23]

Rafa's going to have to win this set in tiebreaks to stay in the match. I don't see him breaking Roger's serve.

[trytrytry]

great game here 2nd game of set 2

wow