Not beating the closing line

[u21c3f6]

Alfa1234, Yes, my database includes the closing line. Here is where I think we look at this very differently. The 400K sample shows that the closers are approx 50/50 and so most people extrapolate that each individual game's closer is also 50/50. I simply don't believe that and I think my results prove that each individual game's closer is not 50/50. See my post #26 above for add'l info.

Joe.

[Alfa1234]

So basically what you're saying is, when the market gives a closing line and assumes there's a 50% probability each way...you find games where the market price is still off by more than the juice and only bet those. Considering the market can be off both ways, it would still average out as being "perfectly spot on" in a 400k sample but you only bet those games where the market simply wasn't efficient at finding the correct value for the odd given. Correct?

That makes sense in a way, but it still means you have found a way to "beat" the market consistently and that is an extremely difficult thing to do.

[u21c3f6]

Alfa1234, Absolutely correct!

Joe.

[gojetsgomoxies]

btw, reading a summary of that moskowitz - name? - finance paper that analyzed a massive amount of date.

anyway, the person summarizing says that moskowitz paper suggest open line is more accurate than closing line.

my quick scan of original paper suggested that line moves too far to close but not that open is superior.

[tsty]

How many markets are efficient?

From my own experiences I can't see many

I don't bet huge markets with 15k+ caps but just doesn't seem likely from my experience

[Waterstpub87]

i just read the most comprehensive by far academic paper on sports betting i've ever seen. it seems to suggest the closing line is NOT the most efficient predictor of the game spread. seem to suggest that that point is back towards the opening line. not sure how far back and it's analyzing 10's of thousands of results.

google moskowitz and sports betting. i think that's correct.

If this was the case, the optimal strategy would be to find games where the line moved the most and bet the other way, in which case books would never move the line because they would be giving away information.

From a cursory reading of the paper, I read too many papers at work to read a 77 page one at home, he saying that over-exuberance sometimes pushes lines too far, making them inefficient in the end. Ironically, this appears similar to the point that U21c3f6 makes with his Suns/Clippers example.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

From a cursory reading of the paper, I read too many papers at work to read a 77 page one at home, he saying that over-exuberance sometimes pushes lines too far, making them inefficient in the end.

Yeah, that's inevitable imo. If you have a stampede that goes too far, the market will correct if there's enough time ........ but there often isn't.

Happens in tennis a lot, because the period from market open to close is so short, often less than a day.

[Waterstpub87]

Yeah, that's inevitable imo. If you have a stampede that goes too far, the market will correct if there's enough time ........ but there often isn't.

Happens in tennis a lot, because the period from market open to close is so short, often less than a day.

I wouldn't doubt it. Problem is separating that movement from actual value movement, which would be more difficult than just beating the openers. I would also guess that value movement is by a larger magnitude and more frequent, but I would be guessing, having not really studied overexuberance. It would be difficult to prove or attribute.

[tsty]

How many bettors you know will bet a line all the way to the b/e point?

[evo34]

Here's a tip: if you knew the exact breakeven point, you'd be retired within two months.

[tsty]

Here's a tip: if you knew the exact breakeven point, you'd be retired within two months.

your stupidity astounds me man

that wasn't even the point of the post

9 years down and you still can't figure shit out

[evo34]

How's that "moduling" coming along?

[tsty]

How's that "moduling" coming along?

How is the money making going?

How about you actually post how much money you made to shut me up?

backing down again huh? yeh thought so clown

[evo34]

How is the money making going?

How about you actually post how much money you made to shut me up?

backing down again huh? yeh thought so clown

I've been monitored by a third party for the past six years. Already posted the link. Facts speak.

How about yourself?