Who to bet tonight?

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  • bkwi
    SBR Rookie
    • 11-28-16
    • 2

    #1
    Who to bet tonight?
    I am eying betting the over the packers have no defense at all and Rodgers should still be able to throw the ball on the eagles!! Any advice?
  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388189

    #2
    Comment
    • Harry N. Lloyd
      SBR MVP
      • 03-26-08
      • 4810

      #3
      Over seems like the play.
      Comment
      • danndmann
        SBR High Roller
        • 10-20-16
        • 148

        #4
        Eagles ml & under total 47 but would be a small play though
        Comment
        • phil_abuster
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-28-16
          • 506

          #5
          well, definitely NOT an under, (46.5 /47 ? )
          as recent 4 packer games, 3 on the road, have yielded a net of 66, 72, 57, and 65 pts!!
          i expect similar tonite
          2 other road games totaled 31 and 50 pts.

          most relevant stats would b packers RECENT road game results
          after the injuries to defense began piling on:

          32-33 @ falcons
          25-47 @ titans (mediocre team, not as good as eagles)
          24-42 @ redskins

          compared to the relevant HOME games by eagles:

          34-3 vs steelers
          21-10 vs outstanding defense of vikings (waaay better than packers D!)
          24-15 vs falcons

          because packers D is reeling, the offense have been passing and scoring more too in order to try and outscore an opponent in a shootout.
          of course, oddsmakers know this and have set the line accordingly

          still, i make this match between 45 and 57 pts
          for it to trigger an OVER bet in this case i need a line very close to the lower edge of my estimate, so 45, 46, 47
          i can get it now, as one of my books has moved to 46.5
          but actually i like the team total on eagles better (ovr 26) as i have a slightly stronger estimated edge here of 26-34 pts scored against the packer defense.

          yes, eagles havent eclipsed this number often except 3 consecutive times at the start of the yr (2 were home)
          but in recent games they have been close to scoring this number (26 pts) despite playing 5 of 7 on the road and against teams w/ winning records - all of which r better teams than packers!
          tonites game is at home - where they perform and score better - against their weakest foe since week 2

          good luck
          Last edited by phil_abuster; 11-28-16, 08:01 PM. Reason: added relevant info
          Comment
          • stackz125
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-03-16
            • 6191

            #6
            If you like the packers
            Take the ML
            Points won't be needed
            They either blow out the eagles or get blown out.
            Comment
            • WWCD
              SBR MVP
              • 11-22-13
              • 1957

              #7
              What exactly does GB have going for them?

              They are missing key players and have no running game. Third straight road game, which is generally an auto-fade for me anyway but the Eagles are playing lights out at home, surrendering on average 10 ppg.

              I just don't think will power alone is a good enough reason to bet on them.
              Comment
              • ans61201
                SBR MVP
                • 10-11-15
                • 3661

                #8
                Doesn't look like too many people watch eagles game. This team is the most frustratingly slow dink and dunk team I've ever watched. They lack talent and overcompensate by shortening the game. They routinely have 10 +play 5 minute drives. Don't trust any overs with them Involved even against packers D
                Comment
                • badgerguy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-21-13
                  • 2281

                  #9
                  Utah Jazz -2.5
                  Comment
                  • sweethook
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-21-07
                    • 12667

                    #10
                    I think the sharps are split on this game
                    Comment
                    • bkwi
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 11-28-16
                      • 2

                      #11
                      Badgerguy I followed jazz!!
                      Comment
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