1. #1
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 392,764
    Betpoints: 1144

    Boston College/Florida St Tonight

    Florida St been erratic all year

    Home -21

    A lot of points

  2. #2
    Itsamazing777
    Not interested....
    Itsamazing777's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-14-12
    Posts: 10,173
    Betpoints: 256

    bc backdoor likely

  3. #3
    triplecrown333
    triplecrown333's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-14
    Posts: 1,524
    Betpoints: 84

    gonna pass on this, better cards in the nba tonight

  4. #4
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 392,764
    Betpoints: 1144

    Possible under

  5. #5
    survive
    and advance
    survive's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-08-11
    Posts: 2,391
    Betpoints: 8535

    Pass. College hoops and USA vs Mexico futbol

  6. #6
    Sam Odom
    Sam Odom's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-30-05
    Posts: 58,074
    Betpoints: 36

    jjgold is the hottest capper right now

    on an incredible run with real money bets

  7. #7
    deuceswild
    deuceswild's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-10-16
    Posts: 192
    Betpoints: 36

    BC should be a play as pathetic as they were last week. Think I had 25.5 ag Louisville. Took a shower it was 21-0 , dead serious.

  8. #8
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,536
    Betpoints: 66193

    PASS-adena, my model and linesmakers are pretty much in sync here. I get FSU -22.56 and 47.56.

  9. #9
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 392,764
    Betpoints: 1144

    Does the game mean much for Florida State?

  10. #10
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,536
    Betpoints: 66193

    Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.

  11. #11
    rizespor
    rizespor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-16
    Posts: 1,900
    Betpoints: 707

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.
    Why??? What's the point of having a model if you're going to ignore perceived value?

  12. #12
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,536
    Betpoints: 66193

    Quote Originally Posted by rizespor View Post
    Why??? What's the point of having a model if you're going to ignore perceived value?
    I almost never lay more than -10 in ATS sports, model can't account for easing up or pulling starters with big lead leaving backdoor open.

  13. #13
    Sam Odom
    Sam Odom's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-30-05
    Posts: 58,074
    Betpoints: 36

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.

    JJ got the Sharp #

  14. #14
    INVEGA MAN
    INVEGA MAN's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-30-08
    Posts: 6,537
    Betpoints: 96

    BC offense is bad

  15. #15
    rizespor
    rizespor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-16
    Posts: 1,900
    Betpoints: 707

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I almost never lay more than -10 in ATS sports, model can't account for easing up or pulling starters with big lead leaving backdoor open.
    Well isnt your model based on past results? So wouldn't all of that be factored in already?

  16. #16
    deuceswild
    deuceswild's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-10-16
    Posts: 192
    Betpoints: 36

    Teased FSU and Over

  17. #17
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,536
    Betpoints: 66193

    Quote Originally Posted by rizespor View Post
    Well isnt your model based on past results? So wouldn't all of that be factored in already?
    How could you possibly account for Florida State pulling starters with say a 24-point lead in the fourth quarter and then allowing a "meaningless" late touchdown? Remember, model results assume an honest all-out effort for 60 minutes.

  18. #18
    funnyb25
    Go Get Laid Man!
    funnyb25's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-09
    Posts: 40,308
    Betpoints: 22055

    Pass

    Will be studying for the weekend
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/28/2022


  19. #19
    rizespor
    rizespor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-16
    Posts: 1,900
    Betpoints: 707

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    How could you possibly account for Florida State pulling starters with say a 24-point lead in the fourth quarter and then allowing a "meaningless" late touchdown? Remember, model results assume an honest all-out effort for 60 minutes.
    Well haven't they played games in the past where they were big favorites?? So let's say they jumped out to a 24 pt lead and then allowed a td late. The data you get from that game will have factored in the "meaningless" touchdown. I mean it still counts right? The points allowed, the yards allowed. Conversely let's say they didn't ease up and didn't allow the backdoor td. Then wouldn't that be reflected in the data as well?

  20. #20
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,536
    Betpoints: 66193

    Quote Originally Posted by rizespor View Post
    Well haven't they played games in the past where they were big favorites?? So let's say they jumped out to a 24 pt lead and then allowed a td late. The data you get from that game will have factored in the "meaningless" touchdown. I mean it still counts right? The points allowed, the yards allowed. Conversely let's say they didn't ease up and didn't allow the backdoor td. Then wouldn't that be reflected in the data as well?
    No because my model does not literally include points scored and points against because those are meaningless stats by themselves. It only includes relevant stats that have a direct correlation to points, or to put it another way, what the points scored/allowed SHOULD be based on those stats.

    Besides, there are thousands of bettable games each year, there is no need to bet double-digit favorites and then have to sweat out backdoors at the end. I sleep better avoiding big favorites.

  21. #21
    rizespor
    rizespor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-16
    Posts: 1,900
    Betpoints: 707

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No because my model does not literally include points scored and points against because those are meaningless stats by themselves. It only includes relevant stats that have a direct correlation to points, or to put it another way, what the points scored/allowed SHOULD be based on those stats.

    Besides, there are thousands of bettable games each year, there is no need to bet double-digit favorites and then have to sweat out backdoors at the end. I sleep better avoiding big favorites.
    Right well I'm sure there's more advanced metrics used than points allowed, just meant that in general the game situation should have already presented itself in past games so it should be somewhat factored in. But anyway that's fair enough. I don't particularly like playing large favorites either!

  22. #22
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 392,764
    Betpoints: 1144

    Based on this thread may be a small small play on Florida State

  23. #23
    stackz125
    stackz125's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-03-16
    Posts: 5,993
    Betpoints: 24

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Based on this thread may be a small small play on Florida State
    JJ do you have a model or is just based on gut feeling???

  24. #24
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-09
    Posts: 19,540
    Betpoints: 8460

    This game is throwaway game for State. B.C needs it to stay in the hunt for a bowl game. They also play well ATS at Florida State. The line is dropping, down to 19 in some Vegas shops. If anything, Under 47 looks decent. Pass.

  25. #25
    deuceswild
    deuceswild's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-10-16
    Posts: 192
    Betpoints: 36

    BC doesn't have the athleticism on offense to put up a contest. Still teased FSU and Under.

    * this late in the season fade the line moves.

  26. #26
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 392,764
    Betpoints: 1144

    These night games seem so tough

  27. #27
    paco
    paco's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-08-09
    Posts: 62,865
    Betpoints: 2024

    Bc shutout cashes the under

  28. #28
    thellama
    thellama's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-27-15
    Posts: 898
    Betpoints: 3066

    These Thur and Fri college games have been all chalk all the time.

  29. #29
    Time is Money
    Time is Money's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-03-07
    Posts: 2,255
    Betpoints: 6389

    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Bc shutout cashes the under
    Do you just run around mushing?!

  30. #30
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 392,764
    Betpoints: 1144

    Would of lost again

    unreal

    2 teams playing

Top