Boston College/Florida St Tonight

[jjgold]

Florida St been erratic all year

Home -21

A lot of points

[Itsamazing777]

bc backdoor likely

[triplecrown333]

gonna pass on this, better cards in the nba tonight

[jjgold]

Possible under

[survive]

Pass. College hoops and USA vs Mexico futbol

[Sam Odom]

jjgold is the hottest capper right now

on an incredible run with real money bets

[deuceswild]

BC should be a play as pathetic as they were last week. Think I had 25.5 ag Louisville. Took a shower it was 21-0 , dead serious.

[LT Profits]

PASS-adena, my model and linesmakers are pretty much in sync here. I get FSU -22.56 and 47.56.

[jjgold]

Does the game mean much for Florida State?

[LT Profits]

Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.

[rizespor]

Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.

Why??? What's the point of having a model if you're going to ignore perceived value?

[LT Profits]

Why??? What's the point of having a model if you're going to ignore perceived value?

I almost never lay more than -10 in ATS sports, model can't account for easing up or pulling starters with big lead leaving backdoor open.

[Sam Odom]

Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.

JJ got the Sharp #

[INVEGA MAN]

BC offense is bad

[rizespor]

I almost never lay more than -10 in ATS sports, model can't account for easing up or pulling starters with big lead leaving backdoor open.

Well isnt your model based on past results? So wouldn't all of that be factored in already?

[deuceswild]

Teased FSU and Over

[LT Profits]

Well isnt your model based on past results? So wouldn't all of that be factored in already?

How could you possibly account for Florida State pulling starters with say a 24-point lead in the fourth quarter and then allowing a "meaningless" late touchdown? Remember, model results assume an honest all-out effort for 60 minutes.

[funnyb25]

Pass

Will be studying for the weekend

[rizespor]

How could you possibly account for Florida State pulling starters with say a 24-point lead in the fourth quarter and then allowing a "meaningless" late touchdown? Remember, model results assume an honest all-out effort for 60 minutes.

Well haven't they played games in the past where they were big favorites?? So let's say they jumped out to a 24 pt lead and then allowed a td late. The data you get from that game will have factored in the "meaningless" touchdown. I mean it still counts right? The points allowed, the yards allowed. Conversely let's say they didn't ease up and didn't allow the backdoor td. Then wouldn't that be reflected in the data as well?

[LT Profits]

Well haven't they played games in the past where they were big favorites?? So let's say they jumped out to a 24 pt lead and then allowed a td late. The data you get from that game will have factored in the "meaningless" touchdown. I mean it still counts right? The points allowed, the yards allowed. Conversely let's say they didn't ease up and didn't allow the backdoor td. Then wouldn't that be reflected in the data as well?

No because my model does not literally include points scored and points against because those are meaningless stats by themselves. It only includes relevant stats that have a direct correlation to points, or to put it another way, what the points scored/allowed SHOULD be based on those stats.

Besides, there are thousands of bettable games each year, there is no need to bet double-digit favorites and then have to sweat out backdoors at the end. I sleep better avoiding big favorites.

[rizespor]

No because my model does not literally include points scored and points against because those are meaningless stats by themselves. It only includes relevant stats that have a direct correlation to points, or to put it another way, what the points scored/allowed SHOULD be based on those stats.

Besides, there are thousands of bettable games each year, there is no need to bet double-digit favorites and then have to sweat out backdoors at the end. I sleep better avoiding big favorites.

Right well I'm sure there's more advanced metrics used than points allowed, just meant that in general the game situation should have already presented itself in past games so it should be somewhat factored in. But anyway that's fair enough. I don't particularly like playing large favorites either!

[jjgold]

Based on this thread may be a small small play on Florida State

[stackz125]

Based on this thread may be a small small play on Florida State

JJ do you have a model or is just based on gut feeling???

[BigdaddyQH]

This game is throwaway game for State. B.C needs it to stay in the hunt for a bowl game. They also play well ATS at Florida State. The line is dropping, down to 19 in some Vegas shops. If anything, Under 47 looks decent. Pass.

[deuceswild]

BC doesn't have the athleticism on offense to put up a contest. Still teased FSU and Under.

* this late in the season fade the line moves.

[jjgold]

These night games seem so tough

[paco]

Bc shutout cashes the under

[thellama]

These Thur and Fri college games have been all chalk all the time.

[Time is Money]

Bc shutout cashes the under

Do you just run around mushing?!

[jjgold]

Would of lost again

unreal

2 teams playing