NFL Spreads/Totals and Props

[a4u2fear]

Will be posting all plays here. To start, here are some futures I bet on already in a prior post, obviously I've already beaten the odds on Dal and Min with their recent injuries:

all 1u
Rex Ryan coach of year +5000
Arz u9.5 +155
Cle u4.5 +110
Car u10.5 -115
Cin u9.5 +100
Dal u9 -135
Det o7 -125
GB u10.5 +130
Hou u8.5 +105
KC u9.5 +100
Min u9.5 +120
NYG o8 -115
Oak u8.5 +100
Phi o7 +135
Sea u10.5 +110
TB o7 -110
Ten o5.5 -160

[a4u2fear]

I am excited because I have recently been killing it in all sports:

http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/sbr-best-bet-contest-2016-contest-5595/

I have over 35 units in a contest where you cannot bet more than one unit a game. The max you can win on a favorite is less than 1 unit, and a dog will win more than a unit.

I analyzed my bets and over 150 bets, I am 3.2 standard deviations above the mean, which is extremely profitable of course. My average bet price was +120

[a4u2fear]

I am interested in betting player props this year. It's tough because these are usually posted an hour or less to game time and there is little time to prepare for hundreds of players. So I created an automated excel sheet to import all of the stats and props for each game. I won't focus on every player, but the main players at each position on each team

[BigdaddyQH]

Will be posting all plays here. To start, here are some futures I bet on already in a prior post, obviously I've already beaten the odds on Dal and Min with their recent injuries:

all 1u
Rex Ryan coach of year +5000...Lose
Arz u9.5 +155...Lose
Cle u4.5 +110...Win
Car u10.5 -115...Lose
Cin u9.5 +100...Win
Dal u9 -135...Win
Det o7 -125...Lose
GB u10.5 +130...Lose
Hou u8.5 +105...Win
KC u9.5 +100...Win
Min u9.5 +120...Win
NYG o8 -115...Win
Oak u8.5 +100...Lose
Phi o7 +135...Lose
Sea u10.5 +110...Lose
TB o7 -110...Lose
Ten o5.5 -160...Lose

I agree with 7 of your picks and disagree with 10. This should be interesting. By the way, if you have to tell us how great you are doing, then you are not doing great at all.

[a4u2fear]

I agree with 7 of your picks and disagree with 10. This should be interesting. By the way, if you have to tell us how great you are doing, then you are not doing great at all.

I did not make the picks trying to win them all, they were all made with each having a greater edge than normal given out by the books.

and I provided the results and picks for this year because without it no one would have a clue about my performance and would either dismiss and or may follow with improper consequences

[arrgy]

Will be posting all plays here. To start, here are some futures I bet on already in a prior post, obviously I've already beaten the odds on Dal and Min with their recent injuries:

all 1u
Rex Ryan coach of year +5000
Arz u9.5 +155
Cle u4.5 +110
Car u10.5 -115
Cin u9.5 +100
Dal u9 -135
Det o7 -125
GB u10.5 +130
Hou u8.5 +105
KC u9.5 +100
Min u9.5 +120
NYG o8 -115
Oak u8.5 +100
Phi o7 +135
Sea u10.5 +110
TB o7 -110
Ten o5.5 -160

So is Rex Ryan getting fired before the beginning of the 2017 season at -5000?

[scottgodson1985]

Dont forget player props are juiced with 30c lines, but im looking to do the same thing this year time permitting.

[a4u2fear]

Dont forget player props are juiced with 30c lines, but im looking to do the same thing this year time permitting.

Thanks for reminder

[a4u2fear]

I don't use Bet Online, but wow, they have a lot of NFL props I don't see elsewhere.

Smacking myself, my book had Den u20 or u20.5 the other day and I was going to play it. Now its 19.5 and I'm definitely passing on that. Hoping can make some prop bets

Sunday play as I expect this line to close in Buffalo's favor:
BUF ML +150

[a4u2fear]

Buf over 20, -125, both 1u

[a4u2fear]

Not liking really any player props. I just don't know what to expect from DEN QB, other than hoping the CAR defense can force him into a timeout because of his inexperience early on. Most of the CAR props are close to my numbers.

DEN 1st TO -115 1u
Siemian u215 -115 1u

Carolina has a good defense and 215 for a rookie is no easy task. Prove me wrong. Lots of dump offs and a low scoring game.

Missed my opportunity to hit the under game total and under DEN total, so passing on each.

[a4u2fear]

Sunday, all 1u
BUF +150
BUF o20 -125
NYJ +3
NO -1.5
SD +7 -120
CHI +6
JAX +4.5

Should be some props too

Game Props 0-1 -1.15 (did Cam really take 2 TO in the first drive!?!?)
Player Props 1-0 +1.00

[a4u2fear]

I made a couple of other strange prop plays before the season:
Sack leader is from the field +850, I am not going to list the 15-20 or so players the book listed to win it, but they are the obvious guys.

Buffalo regular season points scored total is inclusive 329 to 382 (20.6 to 23.9), +155 1u
Denver regular season points scored total is under 353 (22.1), +165 1u

[a4u2fear]

TB +115 1u

[a4u2fear]

Phi/Cle, YES defensive or ST TD +215 1u
Buf/Bal, Longest TD o41.5 -115 1u
Hou/Chi, First Score FG or Safety +140 1u

Still waiting for player props to be posted

[2daBank]

That a really good eye with that Balty/buf ov 41 longest td. I love this game to be sneaky explosive with big plays abound..

Gl bud

[a4u2fear]

That a really good eye with that Balty/buf ov 41 longest td. I love this game to be sneaky explosive with big plays abound..

Gl bud

Thanks. Wow it's tough going through all those players props

Let's see how this goes, all 1u:
Derek Carr u275 -115
Brees o295.5 -125
Winston u21.5 completions -125
Evans u80.5 -115
Julio o100.5 -120
Murray u71.5 Rec/Ru -115
Wentz u230.5 -115
AJ Green u83.5 -115
Rivers o250.5 -115
Rivers o23.5 comp -105

[a4u2fear]

I was really looking forward to doing player props this year but they don't get posted until 1.5 hr before game time and there is not enough time to accurately go over them, or I need to add a lot more automation to my analysis, too much for now

SF +130

[saints1856]

I took Carlos Hyde Over 62.5 Rushing yards tonight. I think he gets a ton of carries, and if he breaks one run for 15-20 yards, he's a third of the way there. Plus Chip Kelly runs a snap-happy offense where he gets a good % of the touches.

[a4u2fear]

I took Carlos Hyde Over 62.5 Rushing yards tonight. I think he gets a ton of carries, and if he breaks one run for 15-20 yards, he's a third of the way there. Plus Chip Kelly runs a snap-happy offense where he gets a good % of the touches.

I like it good luck. Think 49ers surprise and Hyde would be the one to do it

[a4u2fear]

ML 2-1 +1.45
Spread 3-2 +0.80

disappointed in the player props, too little time to evaluate and the performance was terrible, also dhould have waited a few weeks, will see if I have more time upcoming

[a4u2fear]

Bills +100

they were absolutely pathetic last week and the jets should've beaten Cincinnati, but the bills own the jets, and Fitzpatrick isn't good enough to beat Rex Ryan defenses. Gotta play this at plus money

[a4u2fear]

I like doing 8 team teasers, hit 7/8 last week, lost Arizona pk sob!

this week:
Buf +8.5
Det +1.5
KC +10
Mia +13.5
Pit +3.5
NO NYG o47
Arz pk
SD +4
1 to win 10.5

[a4u2fear]

Don't like a lot of sides this week, but totals all 1u:
DET TEN o47.5
IND DEN o46.5
ATL OAK o48
SD JAX o47

[a4u2fear]

all 1u
Mia +240
Was -160
Arz -7
STL +245

[a4u2fear]

ML 3-5 +0.30
Spread 4-2 +1.80
Totals 3-1 +1.80
Teaser 0-1 -1.00

B2B weeks at hitting 7/8 on the teasers, ugh.

[a4u2fear]

Chi -3 1u

[GoSTEELERS77]

Damn that is close. Can you do those teasers where you can still win with 1 loss?

[a4u2fear]

Damn that is close. Can you do those teasers where you can still win with 1 loss?

These are SBR teasers so no, my book doesn't have 8 teamers

NE -105 1u

[a4u2fear]

Jax +100
Car -7
SF +10
SD +100
Cin -3
buf Arz u47
Pit Phi o47
all 1u

[a4u2fear]

Teaser 1 to win 12.5
Buf +10, Jax +7, Was +9, Gb o41.5, Car -1, Pit o40.5, SD +8, SD o45,