[docwatson]

Lets go ahead and get the thread up, and read the note below. Check back around 12:30 EST for the races.

First the Total's:


Over 60 Races posted at SBR. Winning tickets in 35 (58.3%) of them.


Exacta $2,928 In $4,407.20 Out +$1479.20 Profit ROI = +50.5%


Trifecta $5,598 In $10,512.57 Out +$4,914.57 Profit ROI = +87.8%


Make no mistake there are ebbs and flows to horse racing. Whether its a track bias that isn't accounted for, or its just a day that the favorites seem to get us right at the wire on every race to cut into the profits. It's important to not wager more than 4% (3% if you can) of your bank on each race.


If you scroll to row 770 you'll see that my top 5 (Column "F") win at a 66.9% clip with place horse getting there 67% of the time. This hit rate is why I structure tickets the way I do. I have no fear of gamblers ruin, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Good record keeping over the years has helped me weather the losing streaks, and point out weak and strong points in my handicapping. As you can see I keep track of all my races, and it's all right there for all to see.

Waiting on track conditions and scratches. At this point I have one race at Arlington & Saratoga. Plus two WIDE OPEN graded stakes races at Del Mar. So again only four races for today. My handicapping is saying there are either low paying types coming, or the races are TOO wide open yesterday and today. I've seen this story a lot of times, and past experiences help me track it.

Those days are bad, and I want to protect you guys from them. I didn't do a good job of doing that with Race 2 & 10 at Del Mar yesterday. For example on the bad days (yesterday wasn't one) One thing that doesn't happen often enough to structure tickets for it is this. It will INEVITABLY happen that a D-Ranked Horse and an E-Ranked horse will run 1st and 2nd. When it does we won't cash a ticket. I'll get slammed, but I'll move on. Again it hasn't happened enough to warrant structuring a ticket for it.

I will be looking at the Labor Day card for tomorrow, and that will be the end of the Summer Racing series. Then I'll start a new sheet leading up to the Breeders Cup in November.

The BC is always an exciting time for me as every race as the potential to have a life changing ticket cashed. However because the fields are so full of talent my tickets have to go deeper. Every horse in every race is a Champion.

Advice: Don't bet too early as I will drop a race from the list if the right scratches are made, or if the track conditions change.

At the bottom of the sheet I have wagering bundles, and instruction tabs (3 tabs total). I've tried to come up with the best way to structure tickets for all budgets. I encourage everyone to read this as it explains how the Index works, and the bettor can get the best use out of it.

Play within your means.

URL: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1929474103


May The Winners Be Yours!!!!

Doc

[BetweenHerCheeks]

The doctor is in da haus

[docwatson]

I ended up not playing Saratoga today after the scratches were announced. I added another race to Arlington so it's still four races total.

If any scratches are announced for either of the races at Arlington those races will be scratched out.


​Doc

[tlafer]

Thanks for posting these Doc, looking forward to the races.

[RudyRuetigger]

ok doc, I am intrigued

[BetweenHerCheeks]

Locked and Loaded - down here in Austin for the ND v Texas game. Time to party - I'll roll with any scratches.

LETS FUUCKING ROLL!

[docwatson]

Locked and Loaded - down here in Austin for the ND v Texas game. Time to party - I'll roll with any scratches.

LETS FUUCKING ROLL!

Have fun at the game.

The Del Mar Derby has a scratch of the 6 Horse Curling Rules, and this horse is a front running pace setter. That doesn't change the order of the first five, but it does shake up the F-G-H order. To 14-5-1

[mikey207]

Doc,

Lurker here. Just wanted to thank you for the plays

[docwatson]

Doc,

Lurker here. Just wanted to thank you for the plays

Yeah, no problem mikey, and I hope we cash in every race. It's been a great run, and summer racing from May until now always is fantastic.

I'm headed out to do the family cookout thing, and win or lose I'll update the results later tonight.

Peace

Doc

[trytrytry]

arlington race 6

comes in 3-5-2

however very luck 8 horse field So no Tris and no superfectas would have been ugly

so modest loss only there on the sheet

on to race 7

[trytrytry]

exactas only in Arl race 7 also.

8 horses going to post!

[trytrytry]

huge fields in the two Del MAr races however 6 and 8 so tris and supers will be in effect later...

[trytrytry]

race 7 Arlington picks were 6-8-3 then 5-4 and then 1-2-7 in an 8 horse field

Finish 2 -4 -3 - 8


another very bad loss missed the only horses that mattered again top 2 much the best and missed 3 of the top 4 in this tiny field.


However
onto the large DEL MAR fields You pop one of those and its a Huge day...because first 2 only minor damage just exactas! No Tris or Super losing tickets ..

make it rain money at Del MAr!! you got this.

[trytrytry]

ok there it is. lets see some prices.

Del mar race 6

8-9-3-10

picks were 12-9-4 then 6-8 then 5-3-10

[trytrytry]

these are $2 prices. monsters here.

	Pos.	Runner		Win	Place	Show
	1st	Avenge	8	$17.60	$10.60	$7.60
	2nd	Finest City	9		$12.80	$8.60
	3rd	Elektrum (IRE)	3			$4.60
	4th	Keri Belle	10

Wagers
Wagered
Return
P/L

Pool Payouts and Totals

WIN 355,183 PLC 129,102 SHW 84,133 EXA 8/9 $180.00 325,641 QNL 8/9 $107.80 17,453 TRI 8/9/3 $1,150.20

[trytrytry]

race 8 del mar huge field

missed winner so no cashes on that one.



lets see what monday brings.

thanks for sharing your plays here

[docwatson]

Results:

Disappointed I didn't hit the Del Mar Derby, and would've liked to seen how the race evolves if Curling Rules isn't scratched. We did grab a nice one in the Mabee Stakes

Exacta: $192 In & $180 Out -$12

Trifecta: $360 In & $287.55 Out -$72.45

We'll close out Saratoga & Del Mar tomorrow.

Doc

[tlafer]

Hey Doc I was just looking at the Saratoga 11th race on August 27, where on your spreadsheet you show you hit the superfecta. Looks to me like you didn't actually. The horses came in 1-2-14-9, which were your D-A-E-C horses. Your wagering bundles only show one superfecta play, in number 4. And it shows A for the first slot, and B-C-D for the second slot. It came in the other way around. Aren't you making a mistake there? On the other hand, I think you shorted yourself on how many times you hit the trifecta in the same race. I think you hitit twice for 50 cents in bundle 3, and once for $2 in bundle 4. So Ithink you got back $3042 rather then $1014 on the tri’s.

[docwatson]

Hey Doc I was just looking at the Saratoga 11th race on August 27, where on your spreadsheet you show you hit the superfecta. Looks to me like you didn't actually. The horses came in 1-2-14-9, which were your D-A-E-C horses. Your wagering bundles only show one superfecta play, in number 4. And it shows A for the first slot, and B-C-D for the second slot. It came in the other way around. Aren't you making a mistake there? On the other hand, I think you shorted yourself on how many times you hit the trifecta in the same race. I think you hitit twice for 50 cents in bundle 3, and once for $2 in bundle 4. So Ithink you got back $3042 rather then $1014 on the tri’s.

I did hit the trifecta twice in that one, and a few more over time. However I just record what the $1 payout is and that's all. Just like I don't put up when the $4 exacta Box payout hits, but just the $2 payout.

As for the Superfecta I have a friend that likes for me to track the scenario when the A horse is 5/1 or higher and the other B through E runners also get in the top four. I think he likes to mess with me on days I could just box the five horses for the Super, and that's it when that signal on the A-Horse comes in. Sometimes I put in the payoff up and sometimes I don't. The one for $10k on the 27th is the kind when I'll get a phone call with laugh on the other end asking did you Box The Travers? He's an idiot anyway LOL.

No Big deal with only one day left, and a new sheet starts after tomorrow's races. On that sheet I'll include the total payoffs so it's easier to track every actual payout of the Bundle(s). The total amount paid if the Box exacta comes in, and $0.50 trifecta payouts rather than $1 payouts. I'm taking down the Superfecta Bundle on the next sheet, and will bring it back only on Big stakes days. I'll still track the Super payout as I need to so I can look a better ticket structure of it.

I already have a sense that people may not be playing to their means at 3% and no more than 5% of their Bankroll. I recommend no more than 4%, and adjust amounts after each day.

That Travers Stakes day last week was pretty solid along with the August 13th day which was the first time I posted the Index here. Check out Pimlico Stakes day on May 21st. Those are the days that keep it going. Surviving the lulls and break even days like today, and yesterday is where the BR management kicks in.

Doc