Doc's Horse Racing Index for Sunday August 14th, 2016

**gauchojake** · 08-14-16, 11:20 AM

gl doc

can you give some insight into how you handicap the horses for your selections?

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 11:33 AM

In response to gauchojake's reply in yesterday's thread.

I'd be interested in the methodology doc uses to cape the horses he puts in the plays.

First I look for races with eight or more runners, and then I start the process of seeing if the race has a false Morning Line favorite. Some but not everything that may signal this are: Going up in class, more than 30 days off without recent workouts, trainer win percentage, and so.

I like "chaos" races the best where there is a lot of parity especially among the secondary runners. So I don't get wrapped up in one horse as being a lock or best "looking" horse that day. This along with record keeping of how I handicap the races allows my subconsciousness for me to structure tickets the way I do.

So while the horses that are ranked A-B-C-D-E and so on are done so in terms of winning the race they're also placed there based on my pace projections. So I do only use past performance sources that include pace figures.

Projecting the pace of a race is tricky, doesn't always work out the way you expected but it is the key to isolating the vulnerable favorites like I referenced and those unlikely long shots that hit the board at huge odds completing juicy payoffs.

Not that it matters, because they're will be bad days along with great days. However keeping serious and honest records has vastly helped me over the years. I think for sports betting this should also be done. Unless your focus is to just have fun no matter if it cost you gamblers ruin or not.

As Einstein was quoted as saying "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting different results".

Have a good day folks!

Doc

**gauchojake** · 08-14-16, 11:44 AM

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 01:04 PM

The first race at Ellis is Race 3, and not race 2 as I originally posted. Easy to see the distinction since Race 2 has only 7 runners, and the Index list a #8 horse as the C-Ranked contender. Regardless apologies if there was any confusion.

Doc

**INVEGA MAN** · 08-14-16, 01:10 PM

Good info. Good luck

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 01:56 PM

Ellis Race 3 showed the B-Ranked #5 horse get the win at 5/1 nudging out the D-Ranked 4/1 #1 horse, and they drug the E-Ranked #4 horse across for show. The $2 exacta paid $93.20 and the $0.50 Tri if you played it was $180.00. I have a little while before the next race comes up, and I think I'll pop the top on a beer.

5	$12.80	$4.60	$4.20
1	.	$5.80	$4.20
4	.	.	$4.80

$1.00 Exacta	5/1	$46.60
$0.50 Trifecta	5/1/4	$180.00

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 03:18 PM

Monmouth Race 7 proves to be another winning ticket as the 8/1 C-Ranked gets it done easily while the 6/1 D-Ranked #1 runs the place spot for a $2 exacta ticket price of $96.80. The $0.50 Trifects was available as the 19/1 A-Ranked horse gets up for show money making the $0.50 tri payoff a sweet $263.05 on to race 8 at Monmouth and race 7 at Ellis. Top B-Ranked 2 horse did get forth for a $1 Superfecta payout of over $4,500. However I don't play supers unless the field is over 10 runners.

4	$18.20	$8.40	$5.20
1	.	$6.80	$4.00
8	.	.	$9.00

$1.00 Exacta	4/1	$48.40
$0.50 Trifecta	4/1/8	$263.05
$0.10 Superfecta	4/1/8/2	$459.55

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 03:46 PM

Race 8 was chalky as the D Ranked 3/5 favorite holds off the A-Ranked #8 horse at 8/1. The C-Ranked got show while the B-Ranked got 4th. Cashed tickets but lost overall on that race. Race 7 at Ellis in any minute.

11	$3.40	$2.20	$2.10
8	.	$5.40	$3.40
4	.	.	$3.00

$1.00 Exacta	11/8	$10.90
$0.50 Trifecta	11/8/4	$13.85
$0.10 Superfecta	11/8/4/9	$9.37

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 03:54 PM

Well this starting to be a story that just repeats its self. in Race 7 at Ellis the 20/1 D-Ranked wins in a romp dragging the C-Ranked 2/1 #2 in for place. The $2 Exacta pays $264.80, and the $0.50 Trifecta with the #1 completing that pays a sexy $371.05.

10	$43.40	$19.40	$9.40
2	.	$4.20	$3.00
1	.	.	$4.80

$1.00 Exacta	10/2	$132.40
$0.50 Trifecta	10/2/1	$371.05

On to race 9 at Laurel of Race 7 at Arlington whichever comes first. Profitable day wrapped for sure regardless.

Doc

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 05:08 PM

Okay that does it for today cashing tickets in 5 out 6 races.

Race 7 at Arlington had the 6/1 E-Horse win, but we didn't have any of the top ranks get up for the exacta. That was my only zero of the day.

Then in Race 9 at Laurel the 8/1 M/L A-Ranked #4 was bet down to 2/1 where it won going away dragging the second choice B-Ranked #11 across for a cheap $4 exacta box of $31.80 for every 2-bucks wagered. The $0.50 Trifecta was $73.65 to add a little more to the pocket.

The $2 Exacta wagers were $288 In and $540.20 Out For a ROI of +87.5%

The $0.50 Trifecta wagers were $540 In and $901.60 Out for a ROI of +66.9%

4	$6.80	$3.80	$3.20
11	.	$3.40	$2.60
1	.	.	$9.60

$1.00 Exacta	4/11	$15.90
$0.50 Trifecta	4/11/1	$73.65
$1.00 Superfecta	4/11/1/7	$1588.80

Doc

**Bostongambler** · 08-14-16, 05:12 PM

Good job Doc

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by Bostongambler

Good job Doc

Thanks BGambler

**trytrytry** · 08-14-16, 06:54 PM

not sure how to read it. need some help what we are seeing in that spreadsheet

seem you choose (wager?) 5 horses to win each race A,B,C,D,E and also exa box 5 horses each race (A,B,C,D,E) and tri box 5 horses each race? actually more tri combos on 8/14 Ellis park race 7 you have a winning 742 trifecta where none of your top 5 finished 3rd? where is the show horse listed?

**docwatson** · 08-14-16, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by trytrytry

not sure how to read it. need some help what we are seeing in that spreadsheet

seem you choose (wager?) 5 horses to win each race A,B,C,D,E and also exa box 5 horses each race (A,B,C,D,E) and tri box 5 horses each race? actually more tri combos on 8/14 Ellis park race 7 you have a winning 742 trifecta where none of your top 5 finished 3rd? where is the show horse listed?

No, not even close. Please read the "Wager Bundles" tab at the bottom. The runners to go into the trifecta tickets are listed in the "Z" column. The only time a Boxed wager is mentioned is in Bundle 1 were you exacta box for $4 the top three horses (A-B-C).

Win tickets are up to the bettor. I personally only play win tickets when Odds on the A-Ranked horse are around 8/1 or higher, and wager on another horse to win between the B-C-D ranks (whichever one of those look to have the highest odds).

Doc

**trytrytry** · 08-15-16, 08:11 AM

ok did not see that bundle tab there on first look.

**jjgold** · 08-15-16, 08:56 AM

Doc good stuff here

a tool to try and beat this tough game

**docwatson** · 08-15-16, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Doc good stuff here

a tool to try and beat this tough game

Thanks JJG. It's the toughest, and that's why I love to go after it.

Doc

**Jayvegas420** · 08-15-16, 03:11 PM

**jjgold** · 08-15-16, 07:59 PM

Doc what are your best tracks?

**docwatson** · 08-15-16, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Doc what are your best tracks?

Hey JJ how goes it?

I follow all the major tracks and a couple lower tier ones as well. I start around the Super Bowl up until The Derby with Fairgrounds, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Laurel, Aqueduct, Tampa, Santa Anita, and sprinkle in a little Keeneland. Then I start the summer racing with the tracks you see listed on the sheet. After Labor Day I start a Fall sheet that runs up until the Breeders Cup in early November. Only then do I take a a two month break with the 3rd month used by getting everything back together for the triple crown season. That's what I do, and which ones are my best tracks? Well...I have won tax tickets more than once at everyone one of them. So I like to think they're all equal.

However Oaklawn & Fairgrounds have shown the best ROI then the Maryland tracks Pimlico/Laurel. Monmouth will be super great one year, and just okay the next. The California tracks when they put the right races together always bring in a solid ROI. I get frustrated with NYRA, and how they seemingly cater to certain trainers but I still try to find value in those races as well. I have had monstrous days at Saratoga regardless.

Anyway, time will tell.

Doc

**jjgold** · 08-15-16, 09:53 PM

So many theories about horse racing somet say only major tracks give you the best advantage but who knows

I still think it comes down to the three best jockeys most of the time at any given track