1. 07-07-16 07:01 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Thursday, 7/7/16

    5 MLB Plays Thursday

    Rays -115 (Heritage)
    Pirates +143 (Heritage)
    Yankees +156 (Heritage)
    Twins +110 (5 Dimes)
    Athletics +116 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 248-266-13, -11.43
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  2. 07-07-16 07:25 AM #2
    44 Mag
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    I guess: Cleveland & the Cubs. That should be it for %'s.
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  3. 07-07-16 07:26 AM #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    I guess: Cleveland & the Cubs. That should be it for %'s.
    Obviously NOT Cleveland.
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  4. 07-07-16 07:28 AM #4
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Obviously NOT Cleveland.
    Well then, in all practicality, it really should be no one. But I know you will pop out the Cubs. Besides, I thought the Cleveland pitcher weighed heavily in your model ???? Or is just your opinion ???
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  5. 07-07-16 07:29 AM #5
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    60%ers:

    Cubs 76% (-317)
    Colorado 64% (-178)
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  6. 07-07-16 07:32 AM #6
    44 Mag
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    [QUOTE=LT Profits;25972786]60%ers:

    Cubs 76% (-317)
    Colorado 64% (-178)[/QUOTE]

    I was half right .LOL Colorado????? vs. that red hot Philly team. Oh, I know your boy LOLA is being skipped. LOL.
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  7. 07-07-16 07:34 AM #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Well then, in all practicality, it really should be no one. But I know you will pop out the Cubs. Besides, I thought the Cleveland pitcher weighed heavily in your model ???? Or is just your opinion ???
    I said "obviously" because I played Yankees +156. Yes, starters is the most important component but model only has Nova going 5 innings and Yanks bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Shake everything up and model spit out Cleveland 58% (-138).
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  8. 07-07-16 07:37 AM #8
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    [QUOTE=44 Mag;25972792]
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    60%ers:

    Cubs 76% (-317)
    Colorado 64% (-178)[/QUOTE]

    I was half right .LOL Colorado????? vs. that red hot Philly team. Oh, I know your boy LOLA is being skipped. LOL.
    More importantly, Morgan is awful and Bettis is actually pretty good. Not Jon Gray good but good enough for a Colorado pitcher.
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  9. 07-07-16 07:57 AM #9
    44 Mag
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    [QUOTE=LT Profits;25972806]
    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post

    More importantly, Morgan is awful and Bettis is actually pretty good. Not Jon Gray good but good enough for a Colorado pitcher.
    Well, if you hit all your plays today you will be more than 1/2 way to being in the black. I don't know how you put up with all the harassment??? You would think you were taking their wallets and their puppies LOL. GL today.
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  10. 07-07-16 08:34 AM #10
    Jayvegas420
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    LT has thick skin & to be honest I dont think he gives a shit what the trolls think or say.

    I like the Rays & A's as well.


    GL today LT


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  11. 07-07-16 08:37 AM #11
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    LT has thick skin & to be honest I dont think he gives a shit what the trolls think or say.

    I like the Rays & A's as well.


    GL today LT


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  12. 07-07-16 09:20 AM #12
    Snake24
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    5 MLB Plays Thursday

    Rays -115 (Heritage)
    Pirates +143 (Heritage)
    Yankees +156 (Heritage)
    Twins +110 (5 Dimes)
    Athletics +116 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 248-266-13, -11.43
    I like when you play day games which isn't often. You're pretty good. GL, buddy.
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  13. 07-07-16 09:31 AM #13
    RavensFan2k3
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    We trust Tyler Duffey?
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  14. 07-07-16 09:35 AM #14
    CanuckG
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    Rays....I don't know about that one.
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  15. 07-07-16 09:37 AM #15
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    We trust Tyler Duffey?
    Last time out he was an ace. retired 17 in a row, 2 hits.
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  16. 07-07-16 09:53 AM #16
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Last time out he was an ace. retired 17 in a row, 2 hits.
    Last time out he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits to this same Rangers team. I do like him today though
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  17. 07-07-16 09:56 AM #17
    funnyb25
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    Nola being skipped is excellent..
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  18. 07-07-16 10:06 AM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Last time out he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits to this same Rangers team. I do like him today though
    Only reason he allowed 4 runs was he had a 17-2 lead. Didn't want to walk anybody and grooved some pitches. And remember Chi Chi sucks.
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  19. 07-07-16 10:07 AM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Nola being skipped is excellent..
    Probably a good thing, his first start after the break should be key.
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  20. 07-07-16 02:36 PM #20
    mikefan1034
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    Nice Tampa pick lol worst team in the al
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  21. 07-07-16 02:50 PM #21
    JJJ
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    0-2 to start the day keep up the great work LT
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  22. 07-07-16 02:53 PM #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by JJJ View Post
    0-2 to start the day keep up the great work LT
    Pirates were not a 5-inning play.
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  23. 07-07-16 03:04 PM #23
    funnyb25
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    Lol....Guy refuses to believe his system is flawed...I feel bad
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  24. 07-07-16 03:14 PM #24
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Pirates were not a 5-inning play.
    Come on man...you're better than this...
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  25. 07-07-16 03:19 PM #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Lol....Guy refuses to believe his system is flawed...I feel bad
    I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).
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  26. 07-07-16 03:26 PM #26
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).
    Good point...the players are broken
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  27. 07-07-16 03:31 PM #27
    mikefan1034
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    I might no make another play in the contest just let this klown bury himself with his broken system
    Lol
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  28. 07-07-16 03:35 PM #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikefan1034 View Post
    I might no make another play in the contest just let this klown bury himself with his broken system
    Lol
    I already posted a challenge in the contest thread giving Even money that I will finish in the black this season. Feel free to place your bet there.
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  29. 07-07-16 03:37 PM #29
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I already posted a challenge in the contest thread giving Even money that I will finish in the black this season. Feel free to place your bet there.
    I don't don't even know why you waste your breathe on these people LT. Everybody is your biggest fan when your winning but when your down everyone else is a genius. Wish you can just ban these guys they just wasting space in the threads
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  30. 07-07-16 03:39 PM #30
    gamblingisfun
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).
    Do you think it's just very crappy luck so far that mostly beating the lines hasn't resulted in success? (which it normally does) And hopefully by the end of the season everything will work itself out and that this is just extreme variance for an otherwise good model. Or possibly are the books setting lines better/catching up with models that are ahead of the curve as far as finding value/projecting what is going to happen?
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  31. 07-07-16 03:40 PM #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Good point...the players are broken
    That's a quirky way of putting it but yeah! I can't control what happens once the games start, but when you beat the closing line in a major sport a high percentage of the time, you should be fine in the long run. In other words, it seems I am doing my job OK but the results have not been there. Heck, the Pirates ended up being scalpable, I got +143 and Cardinals closed -135! Shit happens.
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  32. 07-07-16 03:45 PM #32
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by gamblingisfun View Post
    Do you think it's just very crappy luck so far that mostly beating the lines hasn't resulted in success? (which it normally does) And hopefully by the end of the season everything will work itself out and that this is just extreme variance for an otherwise good model. Or possibly are the books setting lines better/catching up with models that are ahead of the curve as far as finding value/projecting what is going to happen?
    I dont think anyone is smart enough to be able to pull this off. Thats a lot of variables for books to have to account for to one up every full time bettor. It's bad luck 100% but that's gambling nothing is a guarantee
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  33. 07-07-16 03:45 PM #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by gamblingisfun View Post
    Do you think it's just very crappy luck so far that mostly beating the lines hasn't resulted in success? (which it normally does) And hopefully by the end of the season everything will work itself out and that this is just extreme variance for an otherwise good model. Or possibly are the books setting lines better/catching up with models that are ahead of the curve as far as finding value/projecting what is going to happen?
    The argument against that is the line movement after my plays are in. Have they moved less that last year? That I don't know. But as long as there is some movement in modelers' favor, book were still off by at least a little bit.
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  34. 07-07-16 03:52 PM #34
    juicername
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    Start surebetting whenever you beat the closing line by enough so you don't have to deal with the mofos not performing like they should .
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  35. 07-07-16 03:56 PM #35
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    LT's model is + imo, I do think that it is important to stay at the vanguard of all the new analytics being offered though and not sit back and rest on one's laurels. The bad luck this year does not eliminate the possibility that there was some good luck last year (one of the best single season mlb's I have seen at great volume). I also think that sports have many intangibles that are not perfectly clean and should be taken into account after the model gives you a baseline for the game. Obviously with MLB, the volume of games and teams makes it a very difficult grind to account for all the ebbs and flows going on on every particular team on a daily basis.

    That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

    As always BOL LT, enjoy your work and your humility.
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