1. 05-31-16 08:29 AM #1
    LeahMichele
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    PLAYING the LOTTERY WHEN IT IS POSITIVE EV

    Here in Washington we have a game called hit 5. Odds for the jackpot is 450000 to 1 and the jackpot is up to $520000. There are also lower level prizes but its positive EV in the jackpot alone. My math says a $1 ticket returns $1.80 on average, of course most of that is in the jackpot. Thats as positive EV as the lottery gets. Multiple jackpot winners do split but there are very rarely multiple as noone plays this game. People like the bigger jackpots with impossible odds. Jackpot hasnt hit in 14 draws, it starts at $100,000. Jackpot pays 100 percent when you cash. Am i dumb to play or does this EV make ot worth it ?
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  2. 05-31-16 08:33 AM #2
    trytrytry
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    its not +EV thats a payback over time like 20 years right?

    taxes take out 33% or so so lower it again.

    also if you split multiple winners (likely) it its half. or three winners or 4 or 5....

    but dont sweat it. its a buck and a dream and a nice pot. split 50 tickets with 5 buddies.

    the beers you drink watching the draw will make it very -EV but still fun
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  3. 05-31-16 08:42 AM #3
    milwaukee mike
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    like try3 said... except taxes are probably more than 33%, even in a state like Washington with no state income taxes

    the only time a lottery gets +EV after taxes is if there are big scratch-off prizes left and a small amount of tickets remaining in a cycle... this happens quite a bit, if you check the state lottery website usually they'll tell you how many top prizes have been redeemed per game.
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  4. 05-31-16 08:43 AM #4
    LeahMichele
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    This one pays out 100 percent immediately but ur right pot could split. Usually doesnt as people say "only $520,000, fuk that I want 300 million." This game gets very light play. But ur right the taxes are what get you and it could split. I will buy 20 or 25 you never know. I did hit $100 on it once.
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  5. 05-31-16 08:48 AM #5
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    The lottery is never +EV.
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  6. 05-31-16 08:52 AM #6
    jjgold
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    bad move

    stay away from lottery
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  7. 05-31-16 08:56 AM #7
    LeahMichele
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    The lottery is never +EV.
    rarely but if it gets up high enough it is. This game got up to $800,000 once last year and was hit by 1 winner.
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  8. 05-31-16 09:07 AM #8
    frogsrangers
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    There was a post at Wizard of Odds about this. He said that there is a point where it is +EV
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  9. 05-31-16 09:10 AM #9
    trytrytry
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    if you factor in the statistical chance that driving accident to the lottery store both ways to buy and collect can end your life its not really a great deal ..
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  10. 05-31-16 09:10 AM #10
    LeahMichele
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    If i won i would be like those bums that take the losing $10, $20, and $30 tickets off the table and out of the trashcan next to the ticket machine. You can use those to offset your tax liability. Yes there is a point where its positive EV just. Ot often.
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  11. 05-31-16 09:17 AM #11
    BuckyOne
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    That's a better value for $20 bucks than a lot of other scratch tickets. I guess that's the problem they have with selling it. They have to give away enough small winners to get people to buy it in addition to the smaller size jackpot.

    That is kind of like the slot machine in Las Vegas - Worst machine in the history of mankind - had not been hit in 15 years - all the other machines of its kind were retired because they had paid out enough. But, people were lined up to play it because of the size of the jackpot.
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  12. 05-31-16 09:24 AM #12
    BuckyOne
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeahMichele View Post
    If i won i would be like those bums that take the losing $10, $20, and $30 tickets off the table and out of the trashcan next to the ticket machine. You can use those to offset your tax liability. Yes there is a point where its positive EV just. Ot often.
    that is not foolproof - you have to show you had that kind of money in your pocket when you walked in the door - if you pick up 10 k in tickets and your bank account cannot support that - might be asking for trouble. LOL - you would have to blow some cash on something - someplace or rathole it in a safe? But, what is the worse that can happen - they disallow the deduction?

    I hope you win it!
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  13. 05-31-16 09:35 AM #13
    LeahMichele
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    Thanks. Drawing wednesday night
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  14. 05-31-16 10:21 AM #14
    SharpAngles
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    Lottery is very rarely +EV but once in a while it is. Doesn't change the fact the odds are still millions to one so don't start spending the money yet. +EV plays can still lose.

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    if you factor in the statistical chance that driving accident to the lottery store both ways to buy and collect can end your life its not really a great deal ..
    This guy has every angle covered
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  15. 05-31-16 10:47 AM #15
    sweethook
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    you got to be in it to win it , get your ticket sir.
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  16. 05-31-16 11:14 AM #16
    Optional
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    About 10 years ago I read a thread just like this one about a huge UK lottery that had ~35mil pounds jackpot the guy was saying was +EV.

    A group of us put in 5 bucks a week each and joined a bigger pool.

    About 5 weeks later we won a share of 3rd prize which was over 350,000 pounds. Got about US$1000 each out of it.

    Like Sweethook says, got to be in it to win it.
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  17. 05-31-16 11:44 AM #17
    jjgold
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    You know when a sports bettor is barreled then when he's waiting in line to buy a one dollar lottery ticket

    We used to taunt guys that we knew gamble big and were in the lottery lines betting like five dollars
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  18. 06-01-16 09:13 PM #18
    LeahMichele
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    I bought 20. Probably wasted 20 dollars.

    #1. 02-11-13-18-26
    #2. 05-10-18-31-33
    #3. 11-14-17-21-23
    #4. 07-10-18-22-30
    #5. 01-06-25-30-31
    #6. 04-06-09-23-30
    #7. 11-18-19-20-33
    #8. 02-05-11-29-31
    #9. 04-11-12-20-22
    #10. 11-18-28-29-34
    #11. 15-18-27-30-35
    #12. 03-13-23-27-31
    #13. 01-02-15-22-27
    #14. 07-11-16-23-29
    #15. 14-16-21-26-34
    #16. 03-10-17-21-28
    #17. 08-11-16-22-23
    #18. 03-08-15-29-35
    #19. 01-13-21-25-27
    #20. 04-14-19-28-33

    2 out of 5 wins $1. 3 out of 5 wins $20. 4 out of 5 wins $100. All 5 wins the jackpot. Drawing is in 1 hour. I know I probably just pissed away $18-$20, but fukking taking a shot at a half a million + here.
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  19. 06-01-16 09:16 PM #19
    jjgold
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    Leah you're on the run right now looking for a big score
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  20. 06-01-16 09:24 PM #20
    LeahMichele
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    JJGOLD I have made 1 bet in the past 3 months and I won the +260 longshot when you said I wouldn’t. ( Until after I won games 5 and 6 and you did a complete 180. Typical gambler ) On the run ? I don’t bet daily. Yes I would like to “make a big score” and get lucky and pull down half a million plus. Who wouldn’t ? I know it’s a 400,000 to 1 longshot or I guess a 20,000 to 1 longshot with 20 tickets. But its +EV so I am taking a chance. Even if I lose the whole $20 I wont be “ a few losses from being homeless” as you said you are.
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  21. 06-01-16 09:24 PM #21
    Rich Boy
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    It may be +EV but thats not the important thing. your EG (expected growth) even assuming that this lottery is +EV is so small its not worth the time.

    Its like getting a 10% edge on a 0.000001% chance to win, no point even if its 1000% edge unless you can Arb it, which you cant.
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  22. 06-01-16 09:27 PM #22
    LeahMichele
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    Yeah I considered that so I am not claiming its a smart bet. I won a couple hundred last week and I just decided fuk it Im gonna throw down $20 that I will probably lose. Someone is going to get lucky and hit that jackpot so Im just taking a chance.
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  23. 06-02-16 12:17 AM #23
    Foxx
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    I think you won a buck or two. Maybe Saturday.
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  24. 06-02-16 02:23 AM #24
    Optional
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    One of those posted combinations will win the jackpot now.
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  25. 06-02-16 02:44 AM #25
    19th Hole
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    About 10 years ago I read a thread just like this one about a huge UK lottery that had ~35mil pounds jackpot the guy was saying was +EV.

    A group of us put in 5 bucks a week each and joined a bigger pool.

    About 5 weeks later we won a share of 3rd prize which was over 350,000 pounds. Got about US$1000 each out of it.

    Like Sweethook says, got to be in it to win it.
    `
    Optional
    Are Lottery winnings in the UK taxed?
    Not sure about Canada either.
    If so, that sweetens the entry.
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  26. 06-02-16 03:04 AM #26
    Optional
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    No tax on lottery winnings for me in Australia.
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  27. 06-02-16 04:58 AM #27
    LeahMichele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxx View Post
    I think you won a buck or two. Maybe Saturday.
    Yeah I lost $18. Ja kpot got hit and goes back to $100,000. Im done. Not the first time i pissed away $18 stupidly.
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  28. 06-02-16 04:59 AM #28
    LeahMichele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    One of those posted combinations will win the jackpot now.
    That would be some shit
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  29. 06-02-16 05:25 AM #29
    LeahMichele
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    Jackpot was one by just 1 ticket though. I have never seen it split in this game. It just doesnt get enough play. Even tonight with the jackpot at a 2016 high and all low numbers (3,5,9,14,35) it didnt split. When i was in line waiting to buy the tickets, the people in front of me were getting mega and powerball. Whats the point 200 million to 1. Lol. I guess its preference. But it floors me that 95 percent of players will go for the biggest jackpot payout without regard to the odds.
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  30. 06-02-16 08:12 AM #30
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeahMichele View Post
    Jackpot was one by just 1 ticket though. I have never seen it split in this game. It just doesnt get enough play. Even tonight with the jackpot at a 2016 high and all low numbers (3,5,9,14,35) it didnt split. When i was in line waiting to buy the tickets, the people in front of me were getting mega and powerball. Whats the point 200 million to 1. Lol. I guess its preference. But it floors me that 95 percent of players will go for the biggest jackpot payout without regard to the odds.
    at least 95% of gamblers lose money so why does that surprise you?

    people are stupid and closed-minded, if you explain to them how to win money gambling (or at least not lose as much) they still won't do it
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  31. 06-02-16 06:56 PM #31
    LeahMichele
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    We usually lose money because we are playing a -EV game most of the time. But yeah I never realize how so many gamblers will make it even more –EV then it has to be. My friend will always play which ever game has the highest jackpot, when I ask him why he said if he is going to get lucky he wants to get real lucky. Yeah I guess but to me I would rather go for the 400,000 to 1 odds jackpot paying out $520,000. On a 400,000 to 1 jackpot you just might get lucky. Probably not but you might. Mega millions is 259 million to 1 and Powerball is 292 million to 1 . You aint getting that lucky.
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  32. 06-03-16 08:00 AM #32
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeahMichele View Post
    We usually lose money because we are playing a -EV game most of the time. But yeah I never realize how so many gamblers will make it even more –EV then it has to be. My friend will always play which ever game has the highest jackpot, when I ask him why he said if he is going to get lucky he wants to get real lucky. Yeah I guess but to me I would rather go for the 400,000 to 1 odds jackpot paying out $520,000. On a 400,000 to 1 jackpot you just might get lucky. Probably not but you might. Mega millions is 259 million to 1 and Powerball is 292 million to 1 . You aint getting that lucky.
    then make bets that are +ev

    even at a casino, wait until they have a 1% kickback (5x points day or other promos) on a 99.54% game, that swings the odds in your favor, in addition to mailers
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