Example Of Hero Handicapping....Arrieta Will Not Win Tonight

**LT Profits** · 05-03-16, 08:29 AM

Actually, Pirates are a nice play getting +187 at home. Not a knock against Arrieta at all, he just seems overvalued over a very good team on the road.

**Itsamazing777** · 05-03-16, 08:30 AM

Will you lay hundreds agaisnt him though?

**jjgold** · 05-03-16, 08:30 AM

LT I might tail you here

Nothing to lose

**LT Profits** · 05-03-16, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

LT I might tail you here

Nothing to lose

Except that Cubs are now down to -185, making my bet scalpable already. Model has Cubs -163, I would want at least +175 on Pirates. (Which is still available at some spots)

**d2bets** · 05-03-16, 08:43 AM

Cubs going for 19 straight regular season wins with Arrieta on the bump.

Niese is dogshit too.

**Chi_archie** · 05-03-16, 08:54 AM

anyone giving odds for benches clearing tonight or an ejection?

**Chi_archie** · 05-03-16, 08:55 AM

**LT Profits** · 05-03-16, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Cubs going for 19 straight regular season wins with Arrieta on the bump.

Niese is dogshit too.

Doesn't change fact that Pirates are too good overall to be such big dogs at home. But like I said, I have enough respect for Arrieta that I'd want at least +175 to fade him in this spot.

**Chi_archie** · 05-03-16, 09:11 AM

Pirates hitting is way Over-Due for a slump, and it looks like its already started

every starter is hitting over their head thus far, except for McCutchen who might just be getting hot

but I don't think he is enough to carry the bucs tonight

on the flip side, Arrieta has had a little less control and only lasted 5 innings after throwing 92 pitches last outing...

**l7ustin** · 05-03-16, 09:37 AM

Archie shit or get off the pot pick a fukkin side already this guey

**d2bets** · 05-03-16, 10:11 AM

Just how good have the Cubs been?

The Cubs +83 run differential is the best run differential for an NL team through 24 games since the 1905 New York Giants (+90). Four teams, including the defending WS champion Royals, haven't even scored 83 runs. Cubs are 1st in runs scored per game and 2nd in fewest runs allowed per game.

**jjgold** · 05-03-16, 10:49 AM

-173 at Pinnacle now

**iloseagain** · 05-03-16, 11:02 AM

Its just stupid to fade arrieta. Either play cubs or nothing. Pirates won't win. They're +175 for a damn reason.

**goduke** · 05-03-16, 11:17 AM

I just don't really respect the pirates lineup. When lang returns and gets back into it then I think the pirates will start to do well. Their lineup has too many holes right now

**LT Profits** · 05-03-16, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by iloseagain

Its just stupid to fade arrieta. Either play cubs or nothing. Pirates won't win. They're +175 for a damn reason.

It is never stupid to fade anyone if the price is right. Remember I got +187, and I have been saying all along that +175 would be my bare minimum. Pirates are less than that now with the Cubs in the -170/-175 range everywhere.

**jjgold** · 05-03-16, 11:43 AM

If line keeps going down then you might have to pound Arietta

**TxAaron** · 05-03-16, 11:45 AM

It doesn't matter how much "value" you think you're getting if the pirates are going to get curb stomped.

I would rather lay -170 since I have a strong opinion that Cubs win.

**LT Profits** · 05-03-16, 11:51 AM

Model has Cubs -163, so if they dip below that, then yes Arrieta would have value. Currently there is no value on either side where the lines are sitting now.

**blackHIPPY** · 05-03-16, 12:30 PM

shots at LT

**l7ustin** · 05-03-16, 12:34 PM

arrieta could not get the win and the cubs could still prevail.

**iloseagain** · 05-03-16, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It is never stupid to fade anyone if the price is right. Remember I got +187, and I have been saying all along that +175 would be my bare minimum. Pirates are less than that now with the Cubs in the -170/-175 range everywhere.

i understand... i just think its crazy to fade a guy who hasnt lost in like 3 years. its either cubs or no play, IMO. BOL

Originally posted by TxAaron

It doesn't matter how much "value" you think you're getting if the pirates are going to get curb stomped.

I would rather lay -170 since I have a strong opinion that Cubs win.

This^^

**pocketrockets42** · 05-03-16, 01:00 PM

No surprise at all that LT The Retard is on Pittsburgh. Guy has some kind of complex, constantly fading arrieta in EACH of his starts and loses every single time. Funny to watch.

**jjgold** · 05-03-16, 01:01 PM

best if you got Pitt at +187 just take other side ad lock in small profit

**pocketrockets42** · 05-03-16, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by iloseagain

i understand... i just think its crazy to fade a guy who hasnt lost in like 3 years. its either cubs or no play, IMO. BOL

This^^

You are 1000000% right.

**LT Profits** · 05-03-16, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by pocketrockets42

No surprise at all that LT The Retard is on Pittsburgh. Guy has some kind of complex, constantly fading arrieta in EACH of his starts and loses every single time. Funny to watch.

Retard that won 93 units last year based on 1 unit per play?

**l7ustin** · 05-03-16, 01:21 PM

I check the retards plays every day and never fade them even if i like the other side

If hes a retard its like rainman

**omega** · 05-03-16, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

best if you got Pitt at +187 just take other side ad lock in small profit

What profit? If they lose, there's zero profit.

I laid $1200 to win $700 Cubs ML. How much did you lay, JJ? Or are you just talking per usual?

**LT Profits** · 05-03-16, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by omega

What profit? If they lose, there's zero profit.

I laid $1200 to win $700 Cubs ML. How much did you lay, JJ? Or are you just talking per usual?

Not true.

Lets say you have $1000 on Pirates +187 and have a chance to bet Cubs -170.

You would lock up $62.96 no matter who wins by risking $1.807.04 on Cubs.

Not my style of betting but that is what arbers do.

**omega** · 05-03-16, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not true.

Lets say you have $1000 on Pirates +187 and have a chance to bet Cubs -170.

You would lock up $62.96 no matter who wins by risking $1.807.04 on Cubs.

Not my style of betting but that is what arbers do.

Gotcha. I suppose my larger point is if JJ is gonna call an Arrieta loss, let's see his bet. Otherwise it's just more terrible hot air advice.

**d2bets** · 05-03-16, 02:17 PM

Really weird line movement. How can anyone bet the Pirates +150? I don't get it.

**Itsamazing777** · 05-03-16, 02:21 PM

If I say I bet 1k against Arrieta, am l cool? If I hit I look like a genius, if I don't it was 20$ Seems like that is the majority of Sbr.

**MoMoneyMoVaughn** · 05-03-16, 02:46 PM

This is a major Barry Steinfeld type pley

**pavyracer** · 05-03-16, 02:47 PM

The standards for heroes are getting lower and lower. Now all you have to do to be a hero is bet a +180 baseball home dog. Gone are the days you had to jump in a burning house and save a baby from the inferno.

**MoMoneyMoVaughn** · 05-03-16, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

The standards for heroes are getting lower and lower. Now all you have to do to be a hero is bet a +180 baseball home dog. Gone are the days you had to jump in a burning house and save a baby from the inferno.

Little victories, pavy.