Five thirty eight vs betting market

[Cookie Monster]

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com claims that his bracket beat Vegas on last years. I am a bit sceptical, as his system is basically averaging a few computer power ratings with some adjustements (preseason ranking, travel distance, injuries). So, I am taking him to a test. I am using his winning probabilities from each match, and betting them as moneylines where they show value, for an amount of Kelly betting of a fixed bankroll ($1728).


I am shopping always for best price, which means I usually offer at matchbook on gameday, until I got bought, find a good price elsewhere ($25 limits at 5Dimes reduced, doh), or place best available price a few minutes before tipoff.


I am actually placing those bets. Even if they are random picks, usually got a price close to 0EV compared with market no-vig price. So, not much risk for me.


On the first four games, 538 went with the dog on every game, and was very high on Vanderbilt (their line was +107, I got it a +167). 1-3 on those. However, on next round games it likes mostly favorites. For tomorrow it likes Utah and Iowa St as faves, and Buffalo as a big dog.


Current results:

Date	Book	Team	538 l	Line	Price	Risked	Grade	Decimal	Bet res	Balance
										$0.00
15-mar-16	Greek	Farleigh Dickinson	205	ML	225	$50.04	0	2.25	-$50.04	-$50.04
15-mar-16	5dimes	Vanderbilt	107	ML	167	$25.00	0	1.67	-$25.00	-$75.04
15-mar-16	Matchbook	Vanderbilt	107	ML	170	$268.66	0	1.7	-$268.66	-$343.70
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Holy Cross	108	ML	127	$122.15	1	1.27	$155.13	-$188.57
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Tulsa	116	ML	123	$41.92	0	1.23	-$41.92	-$230.49

Past games and tomorrow:

Time		Rot-Team	ML	538 l	EV
Tue 3/15		543 Fairleigh Dickinson	225	205	0.07
6:40PM		544 Florida Gulf Coast	-230	-205	-0.04
Tue 3/15		545 Vanderbilt	167	107	0.29
9:10PM		546 Wichita State	-175	-107	-0.19
Wed 3/16		619 Southern	-130	-108	-0.08
6:40PM		620 Holy Cross	127	108	0.09
Wed 3/16		621 Tulsa	123	116	0.03
9:10PM		622 Michigan	-125	-116	-0.03
Thu 3/17		717 Buffalo	1075	602	0.67
6:50PM		718 Miami Florida	-1350	-602	-0.08
Thu 3/17		719 Wichita State	113	-102	0.07
9:20PM		720 Arizona	-123	102	-0.10
Thu 3/17		721 Yale	185	158	0.10
2:45PM		722 Baylor	-200	-158	-0.08
Thu 3/17		723 NC Wilmington	520	549	-0.05
12:15PM		724 Duke	-630	-549	-0.02
Thu 3/17		725 Florida Gulf Coast	7000	6427	0.09
7:20PM		726 North Carolina	-18500	-6427	-0.01
Thu 3/17		727 Providence	-128	-165	0.11
9:50PM		728 USC	118	165	-0.18
Thu 3/17		729 Hampton	8500	5641	0.50
3:10PM		730 Virginia	-23000	-5641	-0.01
Thu 3/17		731 Butler	-185	-202	0.03
12:40PM		732 Texas Tech	170	202	-0.11
Thu 3/17		733 Austin Peay	13000	10177	0.27
4:00PM		734 Kansas	-39000	-10177	-0.01
Thu 3/17		735 Connecticut	-165	-175	0.02
1:30PM		736 Colorado	155	175	-0.07
Thu 3/17		737 Tennessee Chattanooga	660	712	-0.06
7:10PM		738 Indiana U	-840	-712	-0.02
Thu 3/17		739 Stony Brook	1000	1239	-0.18
9:40PM		740 Kentucky	-1200	-1239	0.00
Thu 3/17		741 Arkansas Little Rock	400	533	-0.21
4:30PM		742 Purdue	-450	-533	0.03
Thu 3/17		743 Iona	300	528	-0.36
2:00PM		744 Iowa State	-330	-528	0.10
Thu 3/17		745 Fresno State	380	670	-0.38
7:25PM		746 Utah U	-430	-670	0.07
Thu 3/17		747 Gonzaga	-120	-151	0.10
9:55PM		748 Seton Hall	110	151	-0.16

[Decide]

Good thread. Curious how this plays out.

[trytrytry]

utah -8.5 is a great play tomorrow imo dont quite know how to read your chart but good luck with it

[Cookie Monster]

utah -8.5 is a great play tomorrow imo dont quite know how to read your chart but good luck with it

All prices are moneylines. 5dimes reduced offers Utah -430, fivethirthyeight says fair is -670, so it is a +7% EV.

[CanuckG]

Utah loses SU

[Ralphie Halves]

Cookie, I think I remember you doing stuff like this before. Always fun to watch. Thanks for putting in the work.

[Jayvegas420]

So the next bet is Witchita?

[Cookie Monster]

So the next bet is Witchita?

I will place every +EV bet, so I guess I am placing 10+ bets tomorrow. Best growth values are Buffalo, Utah, Iowa St, Providence, Gonzaga and Wichita St on that order.

[Jayvegas420]

GL!

[lakerboy]

Utah loses SU

Nope.

[Cookie Monster]

On early games, Duke game had no value. 538line was -549, could not get anything better. On last minutes I even offered -600 at Matchbook, trying to get a small bet on NC-Willmington (about +588 after commission), but no one bought. So, no bet.
Butler had value, 538line was -202, so I bought some -170 at Matchy 2 mins before gametime. Of course, a few seconds later price went down, so I added at prices averaging -165. Slightly overbet, total risk $253.
Got Connecticut at -158 matchbook (about -161 real), vs -175 538line. $89 risk.
Iowa St was best value of day. I placed some at good prices, but when trying to add at matchy the market it went off. Damn matchy, it listed 2:05 start time, so went off with "4 mins left". Underbet at $285 risk at -293 (vs -528), should have been double that amount.

Took Yale +210 for $165. Price went better a few minutes later, but decided not to add.

Some fun on Hampton-Virginia. I got a 443 cents arb . 5dimes +6000, Matchy -5557 net. And both were +EV, as 538line was 5641. In such cases, the correct way is placing the limited side to the max (5d only allowed $12.5 risk), calculate the exact hedge on the other side (to win same amount regardless of who wins) and add the Kelly bet on top of it.

On afternoon games I got Kansas -6567 net at Matchy for small amount (tw $9.5) and Purdue -390 net at Matchy (tw $100).

Matchbook liquidity has been poor on moneylines. There is a market maker offering $500 on both sides on some games, about 3 cents better than Pinnacle (after commission it is barely better than pinny). And very few guys taking offers.

First results have been good. Butler, UConn and Iowa St all won, Yale looking good. I am currently $73 on the black. Will post another update after last game at night, with detailed balance.

[Decide]

On early games, Duke game had no value. 538line was -549, could not get anything better. On last minutes I even offered -600 at Matchbook, trying to get a small bet on NC-Willmington (about +588 after commission), but no one bought. So, no bet.
Butler had value, 538line was -202, so I bought some -170 at Matchy 2 mins before gametime. Of course, a few seconds later price went down, so I added at prices averaging -165. Slightly overbet, total risk $253.
Got Connecticut at -158 matchbook (about -161 real), vs -175 538line. $89 risk.
Iowa St was best value of day. I placed some at good prices, but when trying to add at matchy the market it went off. Damn matchy, it listed 2:05 start time, so went off with "4 mins left". Underbet at $285 risk at -293 (vs -528), should have been double that amount.

Took Yale +210 for $165. Price went better a few minutes later, but decided not to add.

Some fun on Hampton-Virginia. I got a 443 cents arb . 5dimes +6000, Matchy -5557 net. And both were +EV, as 538line was 5641. In such cases, the correct way is placing the limited side to the max (5d only allowed $12.5 risk), calculate the exact hedge on the other side (to win same amount regardless of who wins) and add the Kelly bet on top of it.

On afternoon games I got Kansas -6567 net at Matchy for small amount (tw $9.5) and Purdue -390 net at Matchy (tw $100).

Matchbook liquidity has been poor on moneylines. There is a market maker offering $500 on both sides on some games, about 3 cents better than Pinnacle (after commission it is barely better than pinny). And very few guys taking offers.

First results have been good. Butler, UConn and Iowa St all won, Yale looking good. I am currently $73 on the black. Will post another update after last game at night, with detailed balance.

Thanks for the update. Curious how the whole day plays out.

[larco15]

Intelligent design and organization.

[Cookie Monster]

Results of early games was OK, but tough Purdue loss on 2OT erased most of gains. Also hurt my brackets, as I noticed Purdue was underpicked and went heavy with them.


Late games were placed mostly at matchy. 538 loved Buffalo as +1000 dog (fair +602), so called for a $100 bet. I underbet a bit, risking just $65. Indiana small value at -606, placed tw $38. UNC micro value at -5557, this time no arb available (5d was +5500). Placed tw $4. And Utah very good value at -389 (538line -670), so risked $619.


Wichita had no value. Providence was offered by Yisman as no vig, so I placed with him at -130 (538l -165), $225 risk. Kentucky some value at -971, risked $317 tw $33. And My Gonzaga offer was bought at -135, $113 risk.


Very good results. If Gonzaga holds I am +$466, and should be more had I placed more on Iowa St.

Date	Book	Team	538 l	Line	Price	Risked	Grade	Decimal	Bet res	Balance
										$0.00
15-mar-16	Greek	Farleigh Dickinson	205	ML	225	$50.04	0	2.25	-$50.04	-$50.04
15-mar-16	5dimes	Vanderbilt	107	ML	167	$25.00	0	1.67	-$25.00	-$75.04
15-mar-16	Matchbook	Vanderbilt	107	ML	170	$268.66	0	1.7	-$268.66	-$343.70
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Holy Cross	108	ML	127	$122.15	1	1.27	$155.13	-$188.57
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Tulsa	116	ML	123	$41.92	0	1.23	-$41.92	-$230.49
17-mar-16	Pinnacle	Butler	-202	ML	-165	$170.00	1	0.60606	$103.03	-$127.46
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Butler	-202	ML	-173	$83.33	1	0.57803	$48.17	-$79.29
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Connecticut	-175	ML	-161	$89.89	1	0.62112	$55.83	-$23.46
17-mar-16	Youwager	Iowa St	-528	ML	-290	$208.80	1	0.34483	$72.00	$48.54
17-mar-16	5dimes	Iowa St	-528	ML	-305	$76.25	1	0.32787	$25.00	$73.54
17-mar-16	DSI	Yale	158	ML	210	$165.00	1	2.1	$346.50	$420.04
17-mar-16	5dimes	Hampton	5641	ML	6000	$12.50	0	60	-$12.50	$407.54
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Virginia	-5641	ML	-5557	$718.33	1	0.018	$12.93	$420.47
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kansas	-10177	ML	-6567	$621.01	1	0.01523	$9.46	$429.92
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Purdue	-533	ML	-390	$389.01	0	0.25641	-$389.01	$40.91
17-mar-16	5dimes	Buffalo	602	ML	1025	$25.00	0	10.25	-$25.00	$15.91
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Buffalo	602	ML	1074	$40.50	0	10.74	-$40.50	-$24.59
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Indiana	-712	ML	-606	$232.75	1	0.16502	$38.41	$13.82
17-mar-16	Matchbook	North Carolina	-6427	ML	-5557	$232.08	1	0.018	$4.18	$18.00
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Utah	-670	ML	-389	$618.85	1	0.25707	$159.09	$177.09
17-mar-16	Yisman	Providence	-165	ML	-130	$225.33	1	0.76923	$173.33	$350.42
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kentucky	-1239	ML	-971	$317.13	1	0.10299	$32.66	$383.08
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Gonzaga	-151	ML	-135	$112.57	1	0.74074	$83.39	$466.46

Values for tomorrow:

Time		Rot-Team	5d ML	538 ML	EV	Risk	To win	Grow
Fri 3/18		817 NC Asheville	2500	2598	-0.04	$0.00	$0.00	0
12:40PM		818 Villanova	-5000	-2598	-0.02	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		819 Temple	285	260	0.07	$42.76	$121.88	9
3:10PM		820 Iowa	-315	-260	-0.05	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		821 Stephen F. Austin	310	558	-0.38	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:10PM		822 West Virginia	-340	-558	0.10	$573.07	$168.55	179
Fri 3/18		823 Michigan	140	196	-0.19	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:40PM		824 Notre Dame	-150	-196	0.10	$268.44	$178.96	82
Fri 3/18		825 CS Bakersfield	1050	2314	-0.52	$0.00	$0.00	0
4:00PM		826 Oklahoma U	-1300	-2314	0.03	$725.97	$55.84	79
Fri 3/18		827 VA Commonwealth	-185	-277	0.13	$420.17	$227.12	168
1:30PM		828 Oregon State	170	277	-0.28	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		829 Wisc Green Bay	900	750	0.18	$33.95	$305.51	17
7:20PM		830 Texas A&M	-1100	-750	-0.04	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		831 Northern Iowa	175	233	-0.18	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:50PM		832 Texas	-190	-233	0.07	$225.19	$118.52	46
Fri 3/18		833 Weber State	800	1603	-0.47	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:20PM		834 Xavier	-1000	-1603	0.04	$611.66	$61.17	71
Fri 3/18		835 Pittsburgh	115	169	-0.20	$0.00	$0.00	0
6:50PM		836 Wisconsin	-125	-169	0.13	$284.93	$227.94	111
Fri 3/18		837 Middle Tennessee State	2500	1843	0.34	$23.40	$584.89	21
2:45PM		838 Michigan State	-5000	-1843	-0.03	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		839 Syracuse	108	110	-0.01	$0.00	$0.00	0
12:15PM		840 Dayton	-118	-110	-0.03	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		841 South Dakota State	450	387	0.13	$49.72	$223.74	18
4:30PM		842 Maryland	-525	-387	-0.05	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		843 Hawaii	185	504	-0.53	$0.00	$0.00	0
2:00PM		844 California	-200	-504	0.25	$869.58	$434.79	740
Fri 3/18		845 Holy Cross	5000	5125	-0.02	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:25PM		846 Oregon	-10000	-5125	-0.01	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/18		847 Cincinnati	-140	-154	0.04	$96.04	$68.60	11
9:55PM		848 St. Joseph's	130	154	-0.09	$0.00	$0.00	0

[The Kraken]

Sooners lose SU, put a small play on Cal St. Bakersfield and thank me with 1 point

[Jayvegas420]

You outta your mind Kraker?
I'm giving you 2 points to never repeat that again!

[Plaza23]

So basically 538 loves Cal today. Interesting.

[POOLSIDE]

So basically 538 loves Cal today. Interesting.

I'd suggest ignoring this game. The line has been slightly adjusted since Cal's starting pg broke his hand a couple days ago so of course it looks like a ton of value. This is like saying oh yeah there's a ton of value on the Patriots +7 until you realized Brady is out.

I'm not saying Cal doesn't win/cover. I'm just saying that the info here probably isn't accounting for him being gone.

[darkghost]

Amazing prediction on MTS! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[Plaza23]

Too bad you blew your wad on Cal. That MTSU win would have really meant something

[Cookie Monster]

Big balance swings on today games. Biggest loss (Cal) compensated by huge win (Mid Tenn St).


Got Dayton at +109 at Matchy, risked $150 on it and lost. Got the money back with VA Commonwealth -197 at Matchy, tw $186.


Again a big moneyline was arbable. Maxed NC Asheville +2900 at 5 dimes for $25, and hedged with Nova -2425, to win $34. Free $9.


U California was the biggest value of the tournament, and got it at great price (-220 Greek, 538 had it as -504 fair). Too bad the model does not adjust for 2 starters missing, and I lost $792.


But got it back with Mid TN St +2900. Model said fair was +1843 and asked for $34 bet, I maxed $25 at 5dimes for a $725 win.


Rest were smaller values. Lost $44 on Temple +286, risked $703 tw 59 on OK -1185 (fair -2314) and placed a token $12 on S Dakota St +400. If results hold, I lost barely $19 on early games.


For later games, 538 loves Wisconsin and West Virginia. Also likes Notre Dame, Texas, and Xavier.

[Cookie Monster]

Another wild ride on late games, ended disappointingly.


538 loved Wisconsin, having the bagders as -169 fave, and I got it at great price at Matchy, +107. $500 won there. But the other big one, West Virginia lost miserably as a -274, another great price at Matchy (538 had them as -558!). $753 lost.


Green Bay was value at +900 5dimes (fair +750), placed my $25 max. Oregon small value at -4546 Matchbook, won $4. Xavier was also good value at -1100 (538line -1603), won $48. Cincinnati had no value.


Yisman offered no vig on Notre Dame, got it at great price -135 to win $266. And my offer at Matchy on Texas was bought at a great -141, just a minute after I placed $25 on 5dimes -150, so I was slightly overbet ($509 risk). You know how it ended, with a buzzer beater from Neptune to screw me.


So, my tournament balance is -$19. I think values will be lower from now as games are tighter. Today likes UNC and Kansas, with smaller values on IA St and Wichita. Already took a -122 offer at Matchy on Wichita risking $175.

Date	Book	Team	538 l	Line	Price	Risked	Grade	Decimal	Bet res	Balance
										$0.00
15-mar-16	Greek	Farleigh Dickinson	205	ML	225	$50.04	0	2.25	-$50.04	-$50.04
15-mar-16	5dimes	Vanderbilt	107	ML	167	$25.00	0	1.67	-$25.00	-$75.04
15-mar-16	Matchbook	Vanderbilt	107	ML	170	$268.66	0	1.7	-$268.66	-$343.70
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Holy Cross	108	ML	127	$122.15	1	1.27	$155.13	-$188.57
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Tulsa	116	ML	123	$41.92	0	1.23	-$41.92	-$230.49
17-mar-16	Pinnacle	Butler	-202	ML	-165	$170.00	1	0.60606	$103.03	-$127.46
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Butler	-202	ML	-173	$83.33	1	0.57803	$48.17	-$79.29
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Connecticut	-175	ML	-161	$89.89	1	0.62112	$55.83	-$23.46
17-mar-16	Youwager	Iowa St	-528	ML	-290	$208.80	1	0.34483	$72.00	$48.54
17-mar-16	5dimes	Iowa St	-528	ML	-305	$76.25	1	0.32787	$25.00	$73.54
17-mar-16	DSI	Yale	158	ML	210	$165.00	1	2.1	$346.50	$420.04
17-mar-16	5dimes	Hampton	5641	ML	6000	$12.50	0	60	-$12.50	$407.54
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Virginia	-5641	ML	-5557	$718.33	1	0.018	$12.93	$420.47
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kansas	-10177	ML	-6567	$621.01	1	0.01523	$9.46	$429.92
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Purdue	-533	ML	-390	$389.01	0	0.25641	-$389.01	$40.91
17-mar-16	5dimes	Buffalo	602	ML	1025	$25.00	0	10.25	-$25.00	$15.91
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Buffalo	602	ML	1074	$40.50	0	10.74	-$40.50	-$24.59
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Indiana	-712	ML	-606	$232.75	1	0.16502	$38.41	$13.82
17-mar-16	Matchbook	North Carolina	-6427	ML	-5557	$232.08	1	0.018	$4.18	$18.00
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Utah	-670	ML	-389	$618.85	1	0.25707	$159.09	$177.09
17-mar-16	Yisman	Providence	-165	ML	-130	$225.33	1	0.76923	$173.33	$350.42
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kentucky	-1239	ML	-971	$317.13	1	0.10299	$32.66	$383.08
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Gonzaga	-151	ML	-135	$112.57	1	0.74074	$83.39	$466.46
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Dayton	-110	ML	109	$149.48	0	1.09	-$149.48	$316.98
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-2598	ML	-2425	$816.49	1	0.04124	$33.67	$350.65
18-mar-16	5dimes	NC Asheville	2598	ML	2900	$25.00	0	29	-$25.00	$325.65
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Va Commonwealth	-277	ML	-197	$366.65	1	0.50761	$186.12	$511.77
18-mar-16	Greek	California	-504	ML	-220	$792.00	0	0.45455	-$792.00	-$280.23
18-mar-16	5dimes	Middle Tenessee St	1843	ML	2900	$25.00	1	29	$725.00	$444.77
18-mar-16	Pinnacle	Temple	260	ML	286	$44.26	0	2.86	-$44.26	$400.51
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-2314	ML	-1185	$703.60	1	0.08439	$59.38	$459.88
18-mar-16	5dimes	South Dakota St	387	ML	400	$12.00	0	4	-$12.00	$447.88
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	-169	ML	107	$467.91	1	1.07	$500.66	$948.55
18-mar-16	Matchbook	West Virginia	-558	ML	-274	$752.79	0	0.36496	-$752.79	$195.76
18-mar-16	5dimes	Wi Green Bay	750	ML	900	$25.00	0	9	-$25.00	$170.76
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oregon	-5125	ML	-4546	$193.47	1	0.022	$4.26	$175.01
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Xavier	-1603	ML	-961	$38.04	1	0.10406	$3.96	$178.97
18-mar-16	BetOnline	Xavier	-1603	ML	-1100	$484.00	1	0.09091	$44.00	$222.97
18-mar-16	Yisman	Notre Dame	-196	ML	-135	$360.00	1	0.74074	$266.67	$489.64
18-mar-16	5dimes	Texas	-233	ML	-150	$37.50	0	0.66667	-$37.50	$452.14
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Texas	-233	ML	-141	$471.37	0	0.70922	-$471.37	-$19.23
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Wichita St	-146	ML	-122	$174.24	0.5	0.81967	$0.00

Values for today:

Time		Rot-Team	5d ML	538 ML	EV	Risk	To win	Grow
Sat 3/19		519 Yale	236	241	-0.02	$0.00	$0.00	0
2:40PM		520 Duke	-256	-241	-0.02	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sat 3/19		521 Wichita State	-122	-146	0.08	$170.48	$139.74	40
12:10PM		522 Miami Florida	120	146	-0.11	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sat 3/19		523 Butler	318	387	-0.14	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:10PM		524 Virginia	-350	-387	0.02	$130.81	$37.37	8
Sat 3/19		525 Providence	500	1111	-0.50	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:40PM		526 North Carolina	-600	-1111	0.07	$728.75	$121.46	172
Sat 3/19		527 Connecticut	328	593	-0.38	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:45PM		528 Kansas	-365	-593	0.09	$569.16	$155.94	164
Sat 3/19		529 Indiana U	160	166	-0.02	$0.00	$0.00	0
5:15PM		530 Kentucky	-170	-166	-0.01	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sat 3/19		531 Arkansas Little Rock	248	344	-0.22	$0.00	$0.00	0
6:10PM		532 Iowa State	-270	-344	0.06	$288.10	$106.70	54
Sat 3/19		533 Gonzaga	-105	110	-0.07	$0.00	$0.00	0
8:40PM		534 Utah U	-105	-110	0.02	$39.76	$37.87	3

[DrunkHorseplayer]

538.com is a poor site betting-wise; nothing but an overemphasis on past results. Paralysis by analysis.

[Cookie Monster]

I am in a hurry now, just a brief update. Yesterday was positive, with wins on Iowa St, Kansas and North Carolina, losses on Wichita, Yale and Utah. Net balance +124.70 for tournament

Today it goes with all faves. Loves Oklahoma, likes Oregon, smaller on Notre Dame, Maryland, Texas A&M, Wisconsin.

[Jayvegas420]

Favs are going to reign today

[Cookie Monster]

Great results on this round.


Yesterday early got Wichita St at nice -122 at Matchy (fair -146). Lost $174. Yale small value at +270 Matchy (fair 241), losing another $37. Found no value on Indiana-KY, but at least minute price went up and I should have placed a small bet on Indiana. Missed it, and it would have won.


Iowa St was good value as I got it at Matchy -238 (fair -334), won $178. Villanova had some value early, but price went up and there was not a good price to bet. Kansas was best value of all day, could not find anyone to buy my offer at matchy, so I ended placing at Pinnacle (aka market price minus moderate vig) at -335 (538line -593!), for a win of $192.


538 had Utah as slight favorite, so placed $135 at +108 on two books. Easy loss. And won $120 when Greek left hanging a nice -600 on UNC (fair -1111).


Today I had a chess tournament all day, so had to place everything on morning, often at bad prices, and leave Matchbook offers on small values, hoping to get bought.


Got Villanova at sucky -282 (Pinny closed -260, 538line -352), won $104. Bought Notre Dame at -110, a few minutes later went to +105, but closed at +124, so good price for me (fair -134). Won $156 on a dramatic game.


Oklahoma was best value of all round. Got it at poor -274 at Matchy (closed -259, 538line -514). Easy $245. I left Syracuse offer when I left, and luckily got bought at -235 (fair -262). Just $50 won.


OTOH, the morning matchy price of -268 on Texas A&M ended way better than -315 close (fair -310), $65 won on that increidible NIA meltdown. Likewise, Maryland early matchy -294 beat -340 close (fair -375) for $100 win.


When I went out there were no value on Wisconsin-Xavier, so I left an small offer on Wisconsin +172 (fair +158). As market price went up it was a bad deal for me (closed +188), but ended winning $56.


Oregon was good value at -280 early (fair -400), but not any good offer at matchy. So I maxed at 5dimes to win $25 and rebet 4 more times for a total tw $125. Slightly underbet, but close enough. And that was a 8/8 day for +$900

Values for this round:

Time		Rot-Team	5d ML	538 ML	EV	Risk	To win	Grow
Sat 3/19		519 Yale	270	241	0.08	$53.78	$145.20	13
2:40PM		520 Duke	-270	-241	-0.03	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sat 3/19		521 Wichita State	-122	-146	0.08	$170.48	$139.74	40
12:10PM		522 Miami Florida	120	146	-0.11	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sat 3/19		523 Butler	318	387	-0.14	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:10PM		524 Virginia	-400	-387	-0.01	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sat 3/19		525 Providence	500	1111	-0.50	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:40PM		526 North Carolina	-600	-1111	0.07	$728.75	$121.46	172
Sat 3/19		527 Connecticut	300	593	-0.42	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:45PM		528 Kansas	-335	-593	0.11	$643.93	$192.22	233
Sat 3/19		529 Indiana U	160	166	-0.02	$0.00	$0.00	0
5:15PM		530 Kentucky	-170	-166	-0.01	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sat 3/19		531 Arkansas Little Rock	230	344	-0.26	$0.00	$0.00	0
6:10PM		532 Iowa State	-238	-344	0.10	$412.63	$173.37	127
Sat 3/19		533 Gonzaga	-107	110	-0.08	$0.00	$0.00	0
8:40PM		534 Utah U	107	-110	0.08	$134.82	$144.25	33
Sun 3/20		713 Iowa	275	352	-0.17	$0.00	$0.00	0
12:10PM		714 Villanova	-282	-352	0.05	$267.74	$94.94	44
Sun 3/20		715 Stephen F. Austin	108	134	-0.11	$0.00	$0.00	0
2:40PM		716 Notre Dame	-110	-134	0.09	$178.57	$162.34	49
Sun 3/20		717 VA Commonwealth	255	514	-0.42	$0.00	$0.00	0
5:15PM		718 Oklahoma U	-274	-514	0.14	$675.48	$246.53	314
Sun 3/20		719 Northern Iowa	250	310	-0.15	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:45PM		720 Texas A&M	-268	-310	0.04	$176.14	$65.72	20
Sun 3/20		721 Middle Tennessee State	230	262	-0.09	$0.00	$0.00	0
6:10PM		722 Syracuse	-235	-262	0.03	$126.70	$53.92	12
Sun 3/20		723 Wisconsin	172	158	0.05	$53.73	$92.42	8
8:40PM		724 Xavier	-200	-158	-0.08	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sun 3/20		725 Hawaii	275	375	-0.21	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:10PM		726 Maryland	-294	-375	0.06	$294.64	$100.22	52
Sun 3/20		727 St. Joseph's	255	400	-0.29	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:40PM		728 Oregon	-280	-400	0.09	$414.13	$147.90	109

All bets on tournament:

Date	Book	Team	538 l	Line	Price	Risked	Grade	Decimal	Bet res	Balance
										$0.00
15-mar-16	Greek	Farleigh Dickinson	205	ML	225	$50.04	0	2.25	-$50.04	-$50.04
15-mar-16	5dimes	Vanderbilt	107	ML	167	$25.00	0	1.67	-$25.00	-$75.04
15-mar-16	Matchbook	Vanderbilt	107	ML	170	$268.66	0	1.7	-$268.66	-$343.70
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Holy Cross	108	ML	127	$122.15	1	1.27	$155.13	-$188.57
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Tulsa	116	ML	123	$41.92	0	1.23	-$41.92	-$230.49
17-mar-16	Pinnacle	Butler	-202	ML	-165	$170.00	1	0.60606	$103.03	-$127.46
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Butler	-202	ML	-173	$83.33	1	0.57803	$48.17	-$79.29
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Connecticut	-175	ML	-161	$89.89	1	0.62112	$55.83	-$23.46
17-mar-16	Youwager	Iowa St	-528	ML	-290	$208.80	1	0.34483	$72.00	$48.54
17-mar-16	5dimes	Iowa St	-528	ML	-305	$76.25	1	0.32787	$25.00	$73.54
17-mar-16	DSI	Yale	158	ML	210	$165.00	1	2.1	$346.50	$420.04
17-mar-16	5dimes	Hampton	5641	ML	6000	$12.50	0	60	-$12.50	$407.54
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Virginia	-5641	ML	-5557	$718.33	1	0.018	$12.93	$420.47
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kansas	-10177	ML	-6567	$621.01	1	0.01523	$9.46	$429.92
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Purdue	-533	ML	-390	$389.01	0	0.25641	-$389.01	$40.91
17-mar-16	5dimes	Buffalo	602	ML	1025	$25.00	0	10.25	-$25.00	$15.91
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Buffalo	602	ML	1074	$40.50	0	10.74	-$40.50	-$24.59
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Indiana	-712	ML	-606	$232.75	1	0.16502	$38.41	$13.82
17-mar-16	Matchbook	North Carolina	-6427	ML	-5557	$232.08	1	0.018	$4.18	$18.00
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Utah	-670	ML	-389	$618.85	1	0.25707	$159.09	$177.09
17-mar-16	Yisman	Providence	-165	ML	-130	$225.33	1	0.76923	$173.33	$350.42
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kentucky	-1239	ML	-971	$317.13	1	0.10299	$32.66	$383.08
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Gonzaga	-151	ML	-135	$112.57	1	0.74074	$83.39	$466.46
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Dayton	-110	ML	109	$149.48	0	1.09	-$149.48	$316.98
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-2598	ML	-2425	$816.49	1	0.04124	$33.67	$350.65
18-mar-16	5dimes	NC Asheville	2598	ML	2900	$25.00	0	29	-$25.00	$325.65
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Va Commonwealth	-277	ML	-197	$366.65	1	0.50761	$186.12	$511.77
18-mar-16	Greek	California	-504	ML	-220	$792.00	0	0.45455	-$792.00	-$280.23
18-mar-16	5dimes	Middle Tenessee St	1843	ML	2900	$25.00	1	29	$725.00	$444.77
18-mar-16	Pinnacle	Temple	260	ML	286	$44.26	0	2.86	-$44.26	$400.51
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-2314	ML	-1185	$703.60	1	0.08439	$59.38	$459.88
18-mar-16	5dimes	South Dakota St	387	ML	400	$12.00	0	4	-$12.00	$447.88
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	-169	ML	107	$467.91	1	1.07	$500.66	$948.55
18-mar-16	Matchbook	West Virginia	-558	ML	-274	$752.79	0	0.36496	-$752.79	$195.76
18-mar-16	5dimes	Wi Green Bay	750	ML	900	$25.00	0	9	-$25.00	$170.76
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oregon	-5125	ML	-4546	$193.47	1	0.022	$4.26	$175.01
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Xavier	-1603	ML	-961	$38.04	1	0.10406	$3.96	$178.97
18-mar-16	BetOnline	Xavier	-1603	ML	-1100	$484.00	1	0.09091	$44.00	$222.97
18-mar-16	Yisman	Notre Dame	-196	ML	-135	$360.00	1	0.74074	$266.67	$489.64
18-mar-16	5dimes	Texas	-233	ML	-150	$37.50	0	0.66667	-$37.50	$452.14
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Texas	-233	ML	-141	$471.37	0	0.70922	-$471.37	-$19.23
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Wichita St	-146	ML	-122	$174.24	0	0.81967	-$174.24	-$193.47
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Yale	241	ML	270	$36.58	0	2.7	-$36.58	-$230.05
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Iowa St	-344	ML	-238	$423.04	1	0.42017	$177.75	-$52.30
19-mar-16	Pinnacle	Kansas	-593	ML	-335	$643.20	1	0.29851	$192.00	$139.70
19-mar-16	5dimes	Utah	-110	ML	109	$75.00	0	1.09	-$75.00	$64.70
19-mar-16	Looselines	Utah	-110	ML	107	$60.00	0	1.07	-$60.00	$4.70
19-mar-16	Greek	North Carolina	-1111	ML	-600	$720.00	1	0.16667	$120.00	$124.70
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-352	ML	-282	$291.89	1	0.35461	$103.51	$228.20
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Notre Dame	-134	ML	-110	$171.57	1	0.90909	$155.97	$384.18
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-514	ML	-274	$672.20	1	0.36496	$245.33	$629.50
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Syracuse	-262	ML	-235	$116.50	1	0.42553	$49.57	$679.08
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Texas A&M	-310	ML	-268	$176.16	1	0.37313	$65.73	$744.81
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Maryland	-375	ML	-294	$293.92	1	0.34014	$99.97	$844.78
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	158	ML	172	$32.32	1	1.72	$55.59	$900.37
20-mar-16	5dimes	Oregon	-400	ML	-280	$350.00	1	0.35714	$125.00	$1,025.37

[gregmav1]

Awesome thread, tons of info and stats, love it. Keep it up. Also, wow you've already almost doubled your money using 538. Crazy.

I wanted to do this exact thing with 538 and I'm happy you're doing it. Please do continue to post, may tail on good value you find.

[flakeandbake]

Can this strategy be used with RLM and what % of the betting public is on either side? As well as be combined w. more statistics and teams historical bracket history?


At the same time I feel like march madness is easily the most unpredictable gambling event you could possibly find

[Cookie Monster]

538 only sees one value on net round, Syracuse (they have as a very slight favorite, market pays +170). Rest are very small or no value. Will see tomorrow I market moves to significant value.

Time		Rot-Team	5d ML	538 ML	EV	Risk	To win	Grow
Thu 3/24		811 Maryland	255	270	-0.04	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:40PM		812 Kansas	-280	-270	-0.01	$0.00	$0.00	0
Thu 3/24		813 Miami Florida	170	208	-0.12	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:10PM		814 Villanova	-185	-208	0.04	$127.29	$68.81	15
Thu 3/24		815 Duke	145	130	0.06	$75.55	$109.55	14
10:05PM		816 Oregon	-155	-130	-0.07	$0.00	$0.00	0
Thu 3/24		817 Texas A&M	128	153	-0.10	$0.00	$0.00	0
7:35PM		818 Oklahoma U	-138	-153	0.04	$105.11	$76.17	13
Fri 3/25		869 Indiana U	215	270	-0.15	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:55PM		870 North Carolina	-235	-270	0.04	$165.54	$70.44	20
Fri 3/25		871 Wisconsin	102	-102	0.02	$32.51	$33.16	2
7:25PM		872 Notre Dame	-112	102	-0.06	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/25		873 Iowa State	200	183	0.06	$50.51	$101.02	8
7:10PM		874 Virginia	-220	-183	-0.06	$0.00	$0.00	0
Fri 3/25		875 Gonzaga	-185	112	-0.27	$0.00	$0.00	0
9:40PM		876 Syracuse	170	-112	0.43	$432.12	$734.60	524

[gregmav1]

What is the "grow" column?

[No coincidences]

I'd say you're lucky that, for the most part, this tournament has been chalk city. Michigan State aside, there really hasn't been any crazy results and most of the Elite 8 will feature traditional powers.

[Cookie Monster]

What is the "grow" column?

It is the expected growth of the bankroll placing a Kelly bet. It is the really important number to gauge the desirability on a bet. On spread bets, which are close to 50/50, the +EV would suffice, but on moneylines there is a big difference on a underdog +2900 line than a fave -1000 one. Chalk has a definite advantage in terms of bankroll growth. You can check Ganchrow posts on Kelly betting for further information.

[Cookie Monster]

Placed bets on all games of this round. Four betting lines faves, four dogs (although 538 has Wisky and Syracuse as very small faves).

Yesterday got very nice price at Villanova -185 on Yuwager, and let an small offer on Matchbook -176, which fortunately got filled. +$105 on that game. Also got filled an small bet on Oklahoma -137 at Matchy, which is not a great price, but ended in a $95 win. Also went small on Kansas -235 5dimes for a $72 win. My only dog yesterday, Duke was placed at nice +161, for "best" bet of day, lost easily $132.

Today 538 liked three dogs. First got Iowa State +259 Matchy (vs 538line +183), lost -$175. Also liked Wisconsin, which I got at great +123 Matchy (-102 fair). Badgers meltdown costed me -$173.

On Syracuse game I had my doubts. Some 538 articles Gonzaga was was the better team, still had Syracuse as -112. I underbet a little, getting +179 and leaving a little more offered that went unfilled. Orangemen win netted +$576 as the defining result of round. Last, I went small on UNC -217 (fair -270) for a $111 win.

The round netted me +$468. On tomorrow games it likes slightly Kansas and Oklahoma. Will post tables when all lines are available.

[POOLSIDE]

If you get a chance, can you post (or link me) to the tables? Very curious about both underdogs tomorrow. Thanks!

[l7ustin]

Interesting thread how are you overall