Five thirty eight vs betting market

[Cookie Monster]

Today was a fine day. Arrived barely on time to take Oklahoma, placed on Pinny +102 when saw Matchbook was worse (538line -118). But forgot to check yisman daily specials thread, where he offered it 5 cents better. Anyway, cannot complain on a $162 win. On the other game got filled at matchbook on Kansas -124 (538line -141). Lost $118 on it. A $44 win for the day.

Tomorrow 538 sees no value on Notre Dame-UNC, but NDame may become micro value if lines keep climbing (fair +470). On the other game it likes Syracuse, as market is +328 and 538line is +226.

All bets to date:

Date	Book	Team	538 l	Line	Price	Risked	Grade	Decimal	Bet res	Balance
										$0.00
15-mar-16	Greek	Farleigh Dickinson	205	ML	225	$50.04	0	2.25	-$50.04	-$50.04
15-mar-16	5dimes	Vanderbilt	107	ML	167	$25.00	0	1.67	-$25.00	-$75.04
15-mar-16	Matchbook	Vanderbilt	107	ML	170	$268.66	0	1.7	-$268.66	-$343.70
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Holy Cross	108	ML	127	$122.15	1	1.27	$155.13	-$188.57
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Tulsa	116	ML	123	$41.92	0	1.23	-$41.92	-$230.49
17-mar-16	Pinnacle	Butler	-202	ML	-165	$170.00	1	0.60606	$103.03	-$127.46
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Butler	-202	ML	-173	$83.33	1	0.57803	$48.17	-$79.29
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Connecticut	-175	ML	-161	$89.89	1	0.62112	$55.83	-$23.46
17-mar-16	Youwager	Iowa St	-528	ML	-290	$208.80	1	0.34483	$72.00	$48.54
17-mar-16	5dimes	Iowa St	-528	ML	-305	$76.25	1	0.32787	$25.00	$73.54
17-mar-16	DSI	Yale	158	ML	210	$165.00	1	2.1	$346.50	$420.04
17-mar-16	5dimes	Hampton	5641	ML	6000	$12.50	0	60	-$12.50	$407.54
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Virginia	-5641	ML	-5557	$718.33	1	0.018	$12.93	$420.47
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kansas	-10177	ML	-6567	$621.01	1	0.01523	$9.46	$429.92
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Purdue	-533	ML	-390	$389.01	0	0.25641	-$389.01	$40.91
17-mar-16	5dimes	Buffalo	602	ML	1025	$25.00	0	10.25	-$25.00	$15.91
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Buffalo	602	ML	1074	$40.50	0	10.74	-$40.50	-$24.59
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Indiana	-712	ML	-606	$232.75	1	0.16502	$38.41	$13.82
17-mar-16	Matchbook	North Carolina	-6427	ML	-5557	$232.08	1	0.018	$4.18	$18.00
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Utah	-670	ML	-389	$618.85	1	0.25707	$159.09	$177.09
17-mar-16	Yisman	Providence	-165	ML	-130	$225.33	1	0.76923	$173.33	$350.42
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kentucky	-1239	ML	-971	$317.13	1	0.10299	$32.66	$383.08
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Gonzaga	-151	ML	-135	$112.57	1	0.74074	$83.39	$466.46
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Dayton	-110	ML	109	$149.48	0	1.09	-$149.48	$316.98
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-2598	ML	-2425	$816.49	1	0.04124	$33.67	$350.65
18-mar-16	5dimes	NC Asheville	2598	ML	2900	$25.00	0	29	-$25.00	$325.65
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Va Commonwealth	-277	ML	-197	$366.65	1	0.50761	$186.12	$511.77
18-mar-16	Greek	California	-504	ML	-220	$792.00	0	0.45455	-$792.00	-$280.23
18-mar-16	5dimes	Middle Tenessee St	1843	ML	2900	$25.00	1	29	$725.00	$444.77
18-mar-16	Pinnacle	Temple	260	ML	286	$44.26	0	2.86	-$44.26	$400.51
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-2314	ML	-1185	$703.60	1	0.08439	$59.38	$459.88
18-mar-16	5dimes	South Dakota St	387	ML	400	$12.00	0	4	-$12.00	$447.88
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	-169	ML	107	$467.91	1	1.07	$500.66	$948.55
18-mar-16	Matchbook	West Virginia	-558	ML	-274	$752.79	0	0.36496	-$752.79	$195.76
18-mar-16	5dimes	Wi Green Bay	750	ML	900	$25.00	0	9	-$25.00	$170.76
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oregon	-5125	ML	-4546	$193.47	1	0.022	$4.26	$175.01
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Xavier	-1603	ML	-961	$38.04	1	0.10406	$3.96	$178.97
18-mar-16	BetOnline	Xavier	-1603	ML	-1100	$484.00	1	0.09091	$44.00	$222.97
18-mar-16	Yisman	Notre Dame	-196	ML	-135	$360.00	1	0.74074	$266.67	$489.64
18-mar-16	5dimes	Texas	-233	ML	-150	$37.50	0	0.66667	-$37.50	$452.14
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Texas	-233	ML	-141	$471.37	0	0.70922	-$471.37	-$19.23
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Wichita St	-146	ML	-122	$174.24	0	0.81967	-$174.24	-$193.47
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Yale	241	ML	270	$36.58	0	2.7	-$36.58	-$230.05
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Iowa St	-344	ML	-238	$423.04	1	0.42017	$177.75	-$52.30
19-mar-16	Pinnacle	Kansas	-593	ML	-335	$643.20	1	0.29851	$192.00	$139.70
19-mar-16	5dimes	Utah	-110	ML	109	$75.00	0	1.09	-$75.00	$64.70
19-mar-16	Looselines	Utah	-110	ML	107	$60.00	0	1.07	-$60.00	$4.70
19-mar-16	Greek	North Carolina	-1111	ML	-600	$720.00	1	0.16667	$120.00	$124.70
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-352	ML	-282	$291.89	1	0.35461	$103.51	$228.20
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Notre Dame	-134	ML	-110	$171.57	1	0.90909	$155.97	$384.18
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-514	ML	-274	$672.20	1	0.36496	$245.33	$629.50
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Syracuse	-262	ML	-235	$116.50	1	0.42553	$49.57	$679.08
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Texas A&M	-310	ML	-268	$176.16	1	0.37313	$65.73	$744.81
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Maryland	-375	ML	-294	$293.92	1	0.34014	$99.97	$844.78
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	158	ML	172	$32.32	1	1.72	$55.59	$900.37
20-mar-16	5dimes	Oregon	-400	ML	-280	$350.00	1	0.35714	$125.00	$1,025.37
24-mar-16	Youwager	Villanova	-208	ML	-185	$128.00	1	0.54054	$69.19	$1,094.56
24-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-208	ML	-176	$62.64	1	0.56818	$35.59	$1,130.15
24-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-153	ML	-137	$130.32	1	0.72993	$95.12	$1,225.28
24-mar-16	5dimes	Kansas	-270	ML	-235	$168.36	1	0.42553	$71.64	$1,296.92
24-mar-16	Matchbook	Duke	130	ML	161	$132.23	0	1.61	-$132.23	$1,164.69
25-mar-16	Matchbook	Iowa St	183	ML	259	$177.98	0	2.59	-$177.98	$986.71
25-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	-102	ML	123	$173.14	0	1.23	-$173.14	$813.57
25-mar-16	Matchbook	Syracuse	-112	ML	179	$317.80	1	1.79	$568.86	$1,382.43
25-mar-16	Matchbook	North Carolina	-270	ML	-217	$241.12	1	0.46083	$111.12	$1,493.55
26-mar-16	Pinnacle	Oklahoma	-118	ML	102	$158.82	1	1.02	$162.00	$1,655.54
26-mar-16	Matchbook	Kansas	-141	ML	-124	$117.97	0	0.80645	-$117.97	$1,537.57

Values for today and tomorrow:

Time		Rot-Team	5d ML	538 ML	EV	Risk	To win	Grow
Sat 3/26		521 Villanova	120	141	-0.09	$0.00	$0.00	0
8:45PM		522 Kansas	-124	-141	0.06	$123.24	$99.39	21
Sat 3/26		523 Oklahoma U	102	-118	0.09	$158.92	$162.10	43
6:05PM		524 Oregon	-112	118	-0.13	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sun 3/27		711 Notre Dame	468	470	0.00	$0.00	$0.00	0
8:45PM		712 North Carolina	-550	-470	-0.03	$0.00	$0.00	0
Sun 3/27		713 Syracuse	328	226	0.31	$163.89	$537.57	139
6:05PM		714 Virginia	-365	-226	-0.12	$0.00	$0.00	0

[POOLSIDE]

Another winning round. This is a good thread. Thanks.

[IamsoBurnt]

not as good as yours

[Cookie Monster]

Another great day. The line on Syracuse kept climbing away from fair +226, so I placed more at better prices. First I placed $25 at +360 on Sportsbetting (Betonline clone), as I needed that bet to be eligible for bracket contest prizes (very likely to finish 2nd for $2500 if Virginia wins it all). Another $25 at +380 on 5dimes reduced. An last was filled at +392 for $131. Total $697 profit. On Notre Dame I placed small $24 at +515 on Matchbook (fair +470). Currently +$2209 for tournament.

For next games, 538 gives OK +119, currently very small value. And loves once again Syracuse as +236 fair line, while market will likely be over +400.

[Jayvegas420]

Sooners should move to +125 or +130 throughout the week

[Cookie Monster]

Quick update, lost $100 on Oklahoma, got bought at +138 net at matchbook. Lost $175 on Syracuse at about +455 at two books. Still very good tournament. Line for final should be about Villanova +117, so I likely will place small on them, as currently is +130.

[larco15]

Enjoyable information.

[Cookie Monster]

On final there was barely a value, got Villanova +120 for big $24 bet (fair +117). So, at the end I won $1960 on tournament. Full bet sheet:

Date	Book	Team	538 l	Line	Price	Risked	Grade	Decimal	Bet res	Balance
										$0.00
15-mar-16	Greek	Farleigh Dickinson	205	ML	225	$50.04	0	2.25	-$50.04	-$50.04
15-mar-16	5dimes	Vanderbilt	107	ML	167	$25.00	0	1.67	-$25.00	-$75.04
15-mar-16	Matchbook	Vanderbilt	107	ML	170	$268.66	0	1.7	-$268.66	-$343.70
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Holy Cross	108	ML	127	$122.15	1	1.27	$155.13	-$188.57
16-mar-16	Matchbook	Tulsa	116	ML	123	$41.92	0	1.23	-$41.92	-$230.49
17-mar-16	Pinnacle	Butler	-202	ML	-165	$170.00	1	0.60606	$103.03	-$127.46
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Butler	-202	ML	-173	$83.33	1	0.57803	$48.17	-$79.29
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Connecticut	-175	ML	-161	$89.89	1	0.62112	$55.83	-$23.46
17-mar-16	Youwager	Iowa St	-528	ML	-290	$208.80	1	0.34483	$72.00	$48.54
17-mar-16	5dimes	Iowa St	-528	ML	-305	$76.25	1	0.32787	$25.00	$73.54
17-mar-16	DSI	Yale	158	ML	210	$165.00	1	2.1	$346.50	$420.04
17-mar-16	5dimes	Hampton	5641	ML	6000	$12.50	0	60	-$12.50	$407.54
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Virginia	-5641	ML	-5557	$718.33	1	0.018	$12.93	$420.47
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kansas	-10177	ML	-6567	$621.01	1	0.01523	$9.46	$429.92
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Purdue	-533	ML	-390	$389.01	0	0.25641	-$389.01	$40.91
17-mar-16	5dimes	Buffalo	602	ML	1025	$25.00	0	10.25	-$25.00	$15.91
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Buffalo	602	ML	1074	$40.50	0	10.74	-$40.50	-$24.59
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Indiana	-712	ML	-606	$232.75	1	0.16502	$38.41	$13.82
17-mar-16	Matchbook	North Carolina	-6427	ML	-5557	$232.08	1	0.018	$4.18	$18.00
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Utah	-670	ML	-389	$618.85	1	0.25707	$159.09	$177.09
17-mar-16	Yisman	Providence	-165	ML	-130	$225.33	1	0.76923	$173.33	$350.42
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Kentucky	-1239	ML	-971	$317.13	1	0.10299	$32.66	$383.08
17-mar-16	Matchbook	Gonzaga	-151	ML	-135	$112.57	1	0.74074	$83.39	$466.46
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Dayton	-110	ML	109	$149.48	0	1.09	-$149.48	$316.98
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-2598	ML	-2425	$816.49	1	0.04124	$33.67	$350.65
18-mar-16	5dimes	NC Asheville	2598	ML	2900	$25.00	0	29	-$25.00	$325.65
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Va Commonwealth	-277	ML	-197	$366.65	1	0.50761	$186.12	$511.77
18-mar-16	Greek	California	-504	ML	-220	$792.00	0	0.45455	-$792.00	-$280.23
18-mar-16	5dimes	Middle Tenessee St	1843	ML	2900	$25.00	1	29	$725.00	$444.77
18-mar-16	Pinnacle	Temple	260	ML	286	$44.26	0	2.86	-$44.26	$400.51
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-2314	ML	-1185	$703.60	1	0.08439	$59.38	$459.88
18-mar-16	5dimes	South Dakota St	387	ML	400	$12.00	0	4	-$12.00	$447.88
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	-169	ML	107	$467.91	1	1.07	$500.66	$948.55
18-mar-16	Matchbook	West Virginia	-558	ML	-274	$752.79	0	0.36496	-$752.79	$195.76
18-mar-16	5dimes	Wi Green Bay	750	ML	900	$25.00	0	9	-$25.00	$170.76
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Oregon	-5125	ML	-4546	$193.47	1	0.022	$4.26	$175.01
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Xavier	-1603	ML	-961	$38.04	1	0.10406	$3.96	$178.97
18-mar-16	BetOnline	Xavier	-1603	ML	-1100	$484.00	1	0.09091	$44.00	$222.97
18-mar-16	Yisman	Notre Dame	-196	ML	-135	$360.00	1	0.74074	$266.67	$489.64
18-mar-16	5dimes	Texas	-233	ML	-150	$37.50	0	0.66667	-$37.50	$452.14
18-mar-16	Matchbook	Texas	-233	ML	-141	$471.37	0	0.70922	-$471.37	-$19.23
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Wichita St	-146	ML	-122	$174.24	0	0.81967	-$174.24	-$193.47
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Yale	241	ML	270	$36.58	0	2.7	-$36.58	-$230.05
19-mar-16	Matchbook	Iowa St	-344	ML	-238	$423.04	1	0.42017	$177.75	-$52.30
19-mar-16	Pinnacle	Kansas	-593	ML	-335	$643.20	1	0.29851	$192.00	$139.70
19-mar-16	5dimes	Utah	-110	ML	109	$75.00	0	1.09	-$75.00	$64.70
19-mar-16	Looselines	Utah	-110	ML	107	$60.00	0	1.07	-$60.00	$4.70
19-mar-16	Greek	North Carolina	-1111	ML	-600	$720.00	1	0.16667	$120.00	$124.70
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-352	ML	-282	$291.89	1	0.35461	$103.51	$228.20
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Notre Dame	-134	ML	-110	$171.57	1	0.90909	$155.97	$384.18
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-514	ML	-274	$672.20	1	0.36496	$245.33	$629.50
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Syracuse	-262	ML	-235	$116.50	1	0.42553	$49.57	$679.08
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Texas A&M	-310	ML	-268	$176.16	1	0.37313	$65.73	$744.81
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Maryland	-375	ML	-294	$293.92	1	0.34014	$99.97	$844.78
20-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	158	ML	172	$32.32	1	1.72	$55.59	$900.37
20-mar-16	5dimes	Oregon	-400	ML	-280	$350.00	1	0.35714	$125.00	$1,025.37
24-mar-16	Youwager	Villanova	-208	ML	-185	$128.00	1	0.54054	$69.19	$1,094.56
24-mar-16	Matchbook	Villanova	-208	ML	-176	$62.64	1	0.56818	$35.59	$1,130.15
24-mar-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	-153	ML	-137	$130.32	1	0.72993	$95.12	$1,225.28
24-mar-16	5dimes	Kansas	-270	ML	-235	$168.36	1	0.42553	$71.64	$1,296.92
24-mar-16	Matchbook	Duke	130	ML	161	$132.23	0	1.61	-$132.23	$1,164.69
25-mar-16	Matchbook	Iowa St	183	ML	259	$177.98	0	2.59	-$177.98	$986.71
25-mar-16	Matchbook	Wisconsin	-102	ML	123	$173.14	0	1.23	-$173.14	$813.57
25-mar-16	Matchbook	Syracuse	-112	ML	179	$317.80	1	1.79	$568.86	$1,382.43
25-mar-16	Matchbook	North Carolina	-270	ML	-217	$241.12	1	0.46083	$111.12	$1,493.55
26-mar-16	Pinnacle	Oklahoma	-118	ML	102	$158.82	1	1.02	$162.00	$1,655.54
26-mar-16	Matchbook	Kansas	-141	ML	-124	$117.97	0	0.80645	-$117.97	$1,537.57
27-mar-16	Sportsbetting	Syracuse	226	ML	360	$25.00	1	3.6	$90.00	$1,627.57
27-mar-16	5dimes	Syracuse	226	ML	380	$25.00	1	3.8	$95.00	$1,722.57
27-mar-16	Matchbook	Syracuse	226	ML	392	$130.52	1	3.92	$511.64	$2,234.21
27-mar-16	Matchbook	Notre Dame	470	ML	515	$24.24	0	5.15	-$24.24	$2,209.97
02-abr-16	Matchbook	Oklahoma	138	ML	119	$103.15	0	1.19	-$103.15	$2,106.82
02-abr-16	5dimes	Syracuse	236	ML	435	$75.00	0	4.35	-$75.00	$2,031.82
02-abr-16	Heritage	Syracuse	236	ML	468	$100.00	0	4.68	-$100.00	$1,931.82
04-abr-16	Greek	Villanova	117	ML	120	$24.00	1	1.2	$28.80	$1,960.62

Results were impressive, but I am still not convinced that 538 model is so much better than market. Will do again next year.

[gregmav1]

Cool thread. But I do take issue with you saying you aren't convinced 538 model not much better than market? Nothing will ever be "so much better", but you what, doubled your bankroll in less than a month purely off their plays? Pretty incredible.