1. #36
    Cookie Monster
    Large moneylines
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    Join Date: 12-05-08
    Posts: 2,249
    Betpoints: 11799

    Today was a fine day. Arrived barely on time to take Oklahoma, placed on Pinny +102 when saw Matchbook was worse (538line -118). But forgot to check yisman daily specials thread, where he offered it 5 cents better. Anyway, cannot complain on a $162 win. On the other game got filled at matchbook on Kansas -124 (538line -141). Lost $118 on it. A $44 win for the day.

    Tomorrow 538 sees no value on Notre Dame-UNC, but NDame may become micro value if lines keep climbing (fair +470). On the other game it likes Syracuse, as market is +328 and 538line is +226.

    All bets to date:

    Date Book Team 538 l Line Price Risked Grade Decimal Bet res Balance










    $0.00
    15-mar-16 Greek Farleigh Dickinson 205 ML 225 $50.04 0 2.25 -$50.04 -$50.04
    15-mar-16 5dimes Vanderbilt 107 ML 167 $25.00 0 1.67 -$25.00 -$75.04
    15-mar-16 Matchbook Vanderbilt 107 ML 170 $268.66 0 1.7 -$268.66 -$343.70
    16-mar-16 Matchbook Holy Cross 108 ML 127 $122.15 1 1.27 $155.13 -$188.57
    16-mar-16 Matchbook Tulsa 116 ML 123 $41.92 0 1.23 -$41.92 -$230.49
    17-mar-16 Pinnacle Butler -202 ML -165 $170.00 1 0.60606 $103.03 -$127.46
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Butler -202 ML -173 $83.33 1 0.57803 $48.17 -$79.29
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Connecticut -175 ML -161 $89.89 1 0.62112 $55.83 -$23.46
    17-mar-16 Youwager Iowa St -528 ML -290 $208.80 1 0.34483 $72.00 $48.54
    17-mar-16 5dimes Iowa St -528 ML -305 $76.25 1 0.32787 $25.00 $73.54
    17-mar-16 DSI Yale 158 ML 210 $165.00 1 2.1 $346.50 $420.04
    17-mar-16 5dimes Hampton 5641 ML 6000 $12.50 0 60 -$12.50 $407.54
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Virginia -5641 ML -5557 $718.33 1 0.018 $12.93 $420.47
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Kansas -10177 ML -6567 $621.01 1 0.01523 $9.46 $429.92
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Purdue -533 ML -390 $389.01 0 0.25641 -$389.01 $40.91
    17-mar-16 5dimes Buffalo 602 ML 1025 $25.00 0 10.25 -$25.00 $15.91
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Buffalo 602 ML 1074 $40.50 0 10.74 -$40.50 -$24.59
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Indiana -712 ML -606 $232.75 1 0.16502 $38.41 $13.82
    17-mar-16 Matchbook North Carolina -6427 ML -5557 $232.08 1 0.018 $4.18 $18.00
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Utah -670 ML -389 $618.85 1 0.25707 $159.09 $177.09
    17-mar-16 Yisman Providence -165 ML -130 $225.33 1 0.76923 $173.33 $350.42
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Kentucky -1239 ML -971 $317.13 1 0.10299 $32.66 $383.08
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Gonzaga -151 ML -135 $112.57 1 0.74074 $83.39 $466.46
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Dayton -110 ML 109 $149.48 0 1.09 -$149.48 $316.98
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Villanova -2598 ML -2425 $816.49 1 0.04124 $33.67 $350.65
    18-mar-16 5dimes NC Asheville 2598 ML 2900 $25.00 0 29 -$25.00 $325.65
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Va Commonwealth -277 ML -197 $366.65 1 0.50761 $186.12 $511.77
    18-mar-16 Greek California -504 ML -220 $792.00 0 0.45455 -$792.00 -$280.23
    18-mar-16 5dimes Middle Tenessee St 1843 ML 2900 $25.00 1 29 $725.00 $444.77
    18-mar-16 Pinnacle Temple 260 ML 286 $44.26 0 2.86 -$44.26 $400.51
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Oklahoma -2314 ML -1185 $703.60 1 0.08439 $59.38 $459.88
    18-mar-16 5dimes South Dakota St 387 ML 400 $12.00 0 4 -$12.00 $447.88
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Wisconsin -169 ML 107 $467.91 1 1.07 $500.66 $948.55
    18-mar-16 Matchbook West Virginia -558 ML -274 $752.79 0 0.36496 -$752.79 $195.76
    18-mar-16 5dimes Wi Green Bay 750 ML 900 $25.00 0 9 -$25.00 $170.76
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Oregon -5125 ML -4546 $193.47 1 0.022 $4.26 $175.01
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Xavier -1603 ML -961 $38.04 1 0.10406 $3.96 $178.97
    18-mar-16 BetOnline Xavier -1603 ML -1100 $484.00 1 0.09091 $44.00 $222.97
    18-mar-16 Yisman Notre Dame -196 ML -135 $360.00 1 0.74074 $266.67 $489.64
    18-mar-16 5dimes Texas -233 ML -150 $37.50 0 0.66667 -$37.50 $452.14
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Texas -233 ML -141 $471.37 0 0.70922 -$471.37 -$19.23
    19-mar-16 Matchbook Wichita St -146 ML -122 $174.24 0 0.81967 -$174.24 -$193.47
    19-mar-16 Matchbook Yale 241 ML 270 $36.58 0 2.7 -$36.58 -$230.05
    19-mar-16 Matchbook Iowa St -344 ML -238 $423.04 1 0.42017 $177.75 -$52.30
    19-mar-16 Pinnacle Kansas -593 ML -335 $643.20 1 0.29851 $192.00 $139.70
    19-mar-16 5dimes Utah -110 ML 109 $75.00 0 1.09 -$75.00 $64.70
    19-mar-16 Looselines Utah -110 ML 107 $60.00 0 1.07 -$60.00 $4.70
    19-mar-16 Greek North Carolina -1111 ML -600 $720.00 1 0.16667 $120.00 $124.70
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Villanova -352 ML -282 $291.89 1 0.35461 $103.51 $228.20
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Notre Dame -134 ML -110 $171.57 1 0.90909 $155.97 $384.18
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Oklahoma -514 ML -274 $672.20 1 0.36496 $245.33 $629.50
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Syracuse -262 ML -235 $116.50 1 0.42553 $49.57 $679.08
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Texas A&M -310 ML -268 $176.16 1 0.37313 $65.73 $744.81
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Maryland -375 ML -294 $293.92 1 0.34014 $99.97 $844.78
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Wisconsin 158 ML 172 $32.32 1 1.72 $55.59 $900.37
    20-mar-16 5dimes Oregon -400 ML -280 $350.00 1 0.35714 $125.00 $1,025.37
    24-mar-16 Youwager Villanova -208 ML -185 $128.00 1 0.54054 $69.19 $1,094.56
    24-mar-16 Matchbook Villanova -208 ML -176 $62.64 1 0.56818 $35.59 $1,130.15
    24-mar-16 Matchbook Oklahoma -153 ML -137 $130.32 1 0.72993 $95.12 $1,225.28
    24-mar-16 5dimes Kansas -270 ML -235 $168.36 1 0.42553 $71.64 $1,296.92
    24-mar-16 Matchbook Duke 130 ML 161 $132.23 0 1.61 -$132.23 $1,164.69
    25-mar-16 Matchbook Iowa St 183 ML 259 $177.98 0 2.59 -$177.98 $986.71
    25-mar-16 Matchbook Wisconsin -102 ML 123 $173.14 0 1.23 -$173.14 $813.57
    25-mar-16 Matchbook Syracuse -112 ML 179 $317.80 1 1.79 $568.86 $1,382.43
    25-mar-16 Matchbook North Carolina -270 ML -217 $241.12 1 0.46083 $111.12 $1,493.55
    26-mar-16 Pinnacle Oklahoma -118 ML 102 $158.82 1 1.02 $162.00 $1,655.54
    26-mar-16 Matchbook Kansas -141 ML -124 $117.97 0 0.80645 -$117.97 $1,537.57

    Values for today and tomorrow:

    Time
    Rot-Team 5d ML 538 ML EV Risk To win Grow
    Sat 3/26
    521 Villanova 120 141 -0.09 $0.00 $0.00 0
    8:45PM
    522 Kansas -124 -141 0.06 $123.24 $99.39 21
    Sat 3/26
    523 Oklahoma U 102 -118 0.09 $158.92 $162.10 43
    6:05PM
    524 Oregon -112 118 -0.13 $0.00 $0.00 0
    Sun 3/27
    711 Notre Dame 468 470 0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0
    8:45PM
    712 North Carolina -550 -470 -0.03 $0.00 $0.00 0
    Sun 3/27
    713 Syracuse 328 226 0.31 $163.89 $537.57 139
    6:05PM
    714 Virginia -365 -226 -0.12 $0.00 $0.00 0
    Points Awarded:

    POOLSIDE gave Cookie Monster 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    BOA12 gave Cookie Monster 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #37
    POOLSIDE
    POOLSIDE's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-06-14
    Posts: 2,839
    Betpoints: 285

    Another winning round. This is a good thread. Thanks.

  3. #38
    IamsoBurnt
    IamsoBurnt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-13
    Posts: 363
    Betpoints: 429

    not as good as yours

  4. #39
    Cookie Monster
    Large moneylines
    Cookie Monster's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-05-08
    Posts: 2,249
    Betpoints: 11799

    Another great day. The line on Syracuse kept climbing away from fair +226, so I placed more at better prices. First I placed $25 at +360 on Sportsbetting (Betonline clone), as I needed that bet to be eligible for bracket contest prizes (very likely to finish 2nd for $2500 if Virginia wins it all). Another $25 at +380 on 5dimes reduced. An last was filled at +392 for $131. Total $697 profit. On Notre Dame I placed small $24 at +515 on Matchbook (fair +470). Currently +$2209 for tournament.

    For next games, 538 gives OK +119, currently very small value. And loves once again Syracuse as +236 fair line, while market will likely be over +400.
    Points Awarded:

    POOLSIDE gave Cookie Monster 3 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    BOA12 gave Cookie Monster 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  5. #40
    Jayvegas420
    Vegas Baby!
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    Join Date: 03-09-11
    Posts: 28,632
    Betpoints: 7952

    Sooners should move to +125 or +130 throughout the week

  6. #41
    Cookie Monster
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    Join Date: 12-05-08
    Posts: 2,249
    Betpoints: 11799

    Quick update, lost $100 on Oklahoma, got bought at +138 net at matchbook. Lost $175 on Syracuse at about +455 at two books. Still very good tournament. Line for final should be about Villanova +117, so I likely will place small on them, as currently is +130.
    Points Awarded:

    larco15 gave Cookie Monster 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    BOA12 gave Cookie Monster 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  7. #42
    larco15
    larco15's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-09
    Posts: 329

    Enjoyable information.

  8. #43
    Cookie Monster
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    Join Date: 12-05-08
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    Betpoints: 11799

    On final there was barely a value, got Villanova +120 for big $24 bet (fair +117). So, at the end I won $1960 on tournament. Full bet sheet:

    Date Book Team 538 l Line Price Risked Grade Decimal Bet res Balance










    $0.00
    15-mar-16 Greek Farleigh Dickinson 205 ML 225 $50.04 0 2.25 -$50.04 -$50.04
    15-mar-16 5dimes Vanderbilt 107 ML 167 $25.00 0 1.67 -$25.00 -$75.04
    15-mar-16 Matchbook Vanderbilt 107 ML 170 $268.66 0 1.7 -$268.66 -$343.70
    16-mar-16 Matchbook Holy Cross 108 ML 127 $122.15 1 1.27 $155.13 -$188.57
    16-mar-16 Matchbook Tulsa 116 ML 123 $41.92 0 1.23 -$41.92 -$230.49
    17-mar-16 Pinnacle Butler -202 ML -165 $170.00 1 0.60606 $103.03 -$127.46
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Butler -202 ML -173 $83.33 1 0.57803 $48.17 -$79.29
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Connecticut -175 ML -161 $89.89 1 0.62112 $55.83 -$23.46
    17-mar-16 Youwager Iowa St -528 ML -290 $208.80 1 0.34483 $72.00 $48.54
    17-mar-16 5dimes Iowa St -528 ML -305 $76.25 1 0.32787 $25.00 $73.54
    17-mar-16 DSI Yale 158 ML 210 $165.00 1 2.1 $346.50 $420.04
    17-mar-16 5dimes Hampton 5641 ML 6000 $12.50 0 60 -$12.50 $407.54
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Virginia -5641 ML -5557 $718.33 1 0.018 $12.93 $420.47
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Kansas -10177 ML -6567 $621.01 1 0.01523 $9.46 $429.92
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Purdue -533 ML -390 $389.01 0 0.25641 -$389.01 $40.91
    17-mar-16 5dimes Buffalo 602 ML 1025 $25.00 0 10.25 -$25.00 $15.91
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Buffalo 602 ML 1074 $40.50 0 10.74 -$40.50 -$24.59
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Indiana -712 ML -606 $232.75 1 0.16502 $38.41 $13.82
    17-mar-16 Matchbook North Carolina -6427 ML -5557 $232.08 1 0.018 $4.18 $18.00
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Utah -670 ML -389 $618.85 1 0.25707 $159.09 $177.09
    17-mar-16 Yisman Providence -165 ML -130 $225.33 1 0.76923 $173.33 $350.42
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Kentucky -1239 ML -971 $317.13 1 0.10299 $32.66 $383.08
    17-mar-16 Matchbook Gonzaga -151 ML -135 $112.57 1 0.74074 $83.39 $466.46
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Dayton -110 ML 109 $149.48 0 1.09 -$149.48 $316.98
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Villanova -2598 ML -2425 $816.49 1 0.04124 $33.67 $350.65
    18-mar-16 5dimes NC Asheville 2598 ML 2900 $25.00 0 29 -$25.00 $325.65
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Va Commonwealth -277 ML -197 $366.65 1 0.50761 $186.12 $511.77
    18-mar-16 Greek California -504 ML -220 $792.00 0 0.45455 -$792.00 -$280.23
    18-mar-16 5dimes Middle Tenessee St 1843 ML 2900 $25.00 1 29 $725.00 $444.77
    18-mar-16 Pinnacle Temple 260 ML 286 $44.26 0 2.86 -$44.26 $400.51
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Oklahoma -2314 ML -1185 $703.60 1 0.08439 $59.38 $459.88
    18-mar-16 5dimes South Dakota St 387 ML 400 $12.00 0 4 -$12.00 $447.88
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Wisconsin -169 ML 107 $467.91 1 1.07 $500.66 $948.55
    18-mar-16 Matchbook West Virginia -558 ML -274 $752.79 0 0.36496 -$752.79 $195.76
    18-mar-16 5dimes Wi Green Bay 750 ML 900 $25.00 0 9 -$25.00 $170.76
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Oregon -5125 ML -4546 $193.47 1 0.022 $4.26 $175.01
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Xavier -1603 ML -961 $38.04 1 0.10406 $3.96 $178.97
    18-mar-16 BetOnline Xavier -1603 ML -1100 $484.00 1 0.09091 $44.00 $222.97
    18-mar-16 Yisman Notre Dame -196 ML -135 $360.00 1 0.74074 $266.67 $489.64
    18-mar-16 5dimes Texas -233 ML -150 $37.50 0 0.66667 -$37.50 $452.14
    18-mar-16 Matchbook Texas -233 ML -141 $471.37 0 0.70922 -$471.37 -$19.23
    19-mar-16 Matchbook Wichita St -146 ML -122 $174.24 0 0.81967 -$174.24 -$193.47
    19-mar-16 Matchbook Yale 241 ML 270 $36.58 0 2.7 -$36.58 -$230.05
    19-mar-16 Matchbook Iowa St -344 ML -238 $423.04 1 0.42017 $177.75 -$52.30
    19-mar-16 Pinnacle Kansas -593 ML -335 $643.20 1 0.29851 $192.00 $139.70
    19-mar-16 5dimes Utah -110 ML 109 $75.00 0 1.09 -$75.00 $64.70
    19-mar-16 Looselines Utah -110 ML 107 $60.00 0 1.07 -$60.00 $4.70
    19-mar-16 Greek North Carolina -1111 ML -600 $720.00 1 0.16667 $120.00 $124.70
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Villanova -352 ML -282 $291.89 1 0.35461 $103.51 $228.20
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Notre Dame -134 ML -110 $171.57 1 0.90909 $155.97 $384.18
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Oklahoma -514 ML -274 $672.20 1 0.36496 $245.33 $629.50
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Syracuse -262 ML -235 $116.50 1 0.42553 $49.57 $679.08
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Texas A&M -310 ML -268 $176.16 1 0.37313 $65.73 $744.81
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Maryland -375 ML -294 $293.92 1 0.34014 $99.97 $844.78
    20-mar-16 Matchbook Wisconsin 158 ML 172 $32.32 1 1.72 $55.59 $900.37
    20-mar-16 5dimes Oregon -400 ML -280 $350.00 1 0.35714 $125.00 $1,025.37
    24-mar-16 Youwager Villanova -208 ML -185 $128.00 1 0.54054 $69.19 $1,094.56
    24-mar-16 Matchbook Villanova -208 ML -176 $62.64 1 0.56818 $35.59 $1,130.15
    24-mar-16 Matchbook Oklahoma -153 ML -137 $130.32 1 0.72993 $95.12 $1,225.28
    24-mar-16 5dimes Kansas -270 ML -235 $168.36 1 0.42553 $71.64 $1,296.92
    24-mar-16 Matchbook Duke 130 ML 161 $132.23 0 1.61 -$132.23 $1,164.69
    25-mar-16 Matchbook Iowa St 183 ML 259 $177.98 0 2.59 -$177.98 $986.71
    25-mar-16 Matchbook Wisconsin -102 ML 123 $173.14 0 1.23 -$173.14 $813.57
    25-mar-16 Matchbook Syracuse -112 ML 179 $317.80 1 1.79 $568.86 $1,382.43
    25-mar-16 Matchbook North Carolina -270 ML -217 $241.12 1 0.46083 $111.12 $1,493.55
    26-mar-16 Pinnacle Oklahoma -118 ML 102 $158.82 1 1.02 $162.00 $1,655.54
    26-mar-16 Matchbook Kansas -141 ML -124 $117.97 0 0.80645 -$117.97 $1,537.57
    27-mar-16 Sportsbetting Syracuse 226 ML 360 $25.00 1 3.6 $90.00 $1,627.57
    27-mar-16 5dimes Syracuse 226 ML 380 $25.00 1 3.8 $95.00 $1,722.57
    27-mar-16 Matchbook Syracuse 226 ML 392 $130.52 1 3.92 $511.64 $2,234.21
    27-mar-16 Matchbook Notre Dame 470 ML 515 $24.24 0 5.15 -$24.24 $2,209.97
    02-abr-16 Matchbook Oklahoma 138 ML 119 $103.15 0 1.19 -$103.15 $2,106.82
    02-abr-16 5dimes Syracuse 236 ML 435 $75.00 0 4.35 -$75.00 $2,031.82
    02-abr-16 Heritage Syracuse 236 ML 468 $100.00 0 4.68 -$100.00 $1,931.82
    04-abr-16 Greek Villanova 117 ML 120 $24.00 1 1.2 $28.80 $1,960.62

    Results were impressive, but I am still not convinced that 538 model is so much better than market. Will do again next year.

  9. #44
    gregmav1
    gregmav1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 1,830
    Betpoints: 1349

    Cool thread. But I do take issue with you saying you aren't convinced 538 model not much better than market? Nothing will ever be "so much better", but you what, doubled your bankroll in less than a month purely off their plays? Pretty incredible.

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