NBA: Warriors vs. Clippers ~ plays, angles, discussion

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  • JMon
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-11-09
    • 9800

    #1
    NBA: Warriors vs. Clippers ~ plays, angles, discussion
    Reasons why I am on the Warriors:

    Historically, the Warriors have responded well after a big loss. Specifically, coming off a road loss as a favorite of margin of at least ten or more. In their last 19 games they are 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS. This year they responded in this role by beating the Suns by 25, Rockets by 4 and Cavs by 34. They are 9-0 SU/ATS in a b2b in this spot.

    A particular spot that I am fond of is when team is on the road coming off a loss as a favorite; playing a team coming off a win as a home dog. In the last five years, 39-9 SU and 37-8-3 ATS. 7-2 SU/ATS this season, with both losses being dogs. Favs in this spot are 28-3 SU and 25-4-2.

    Now we have the line movement, which putting me off a bit. It opens at -5, I grabbed it at -4.5 this morning and now it's -3.5? Is the majority bets on the Warriors so far? Why am I getting the sense Clippers upset a lot bettors tonight, including myself. And with the spots I included above, while they hit historically at a high rate and even this season, they do lose as noted.
  • deepball
    SBR Rookie
    • 11-03-15
    • 26

    #2
    Usually if sharps like the underdog and going against public team, they wait right until tipoff to get the best number, and thats where it usually drops big. If its sharps pounding clippers why would they bet so early?
    Comment
    • lakerboy
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 04-02-09
      • 94367

      #3
      Originally posted by deepball
      Usually if sharps like the underdog and going against public team, they wait right until tipoff to get the best number, and thats where it usually drops big. If its sharps pounding clippers why would they bet so early?
      Cause they got 5. It's a lot of points to lay.
      Comment
      • KVB
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 05-29-14
        • 74817

        #4
        I have to leave town so not much time. Let me say that unsophisticated lines have GS winning by about 5 points. As we get more sophisticated, however, the game becomes much closer.

        I have a forecast that equates to the Clippers winning this game by 3 points with a total of nearly 119 points. This is a sharp, up to date, dynamic line, whether it is correct tonight or not.

        Last night I felt GS was favored by far too many points and actually had them beating Portland by less than half of a point, basically a pick em.

        Many bettors were correct last night and they rubbed it in on the court. Some of those bettors are emboldened now and coming back with the Clippers.

        This is the reason you see the movement you see but there is support for certain around 3 points…the public is voracious.

        Good Luck whatever your play.

        Comment
        • JMon
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-11-09
          • 9800

          #5
          Originally posted by KVB
          I have to leave town so not much time. Let me say that unsophisticated lines have GS winning by about 5 points. As we get more sophisticated, however, the game becomes much closer.

          I have a forecast that equates to the Clippers winning this game by 3 points with a total of nearly 119 points. This is a sharp, up to date, dynamic line, whether it is correct tonight or not.

          Last night I felt GS was favored by far too many points and actually had them beating Portland by less than half of a point, basically a pick em.

          Many bettors were correct last night and they rubbed it in on the court. Some of those bettors are emboldened now and coming back with the Clippers.

          This is the reason you see the movement you see but there is support for certain around 3 points…the public is voracious.

          Good Luck whatever your play.

          I was worried you would say something like this...thanks for the insight, KVB
          Comment
          • jjgold
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 07-20-05
            • 388189

            #6
            Warriors or no play

            percentage play
            Comment
            • Goat Milk
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 03-24-10
              • 25850

              #7
              No griffin no chance, especially not after last night thrashing.
              Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
              Comment
              • italianbandit
                SBR MVP
                • 05-17-11
                • 2622

                #8
                Keep it simple JMon, GS 1q. Good luck.
                Comment
                • JMon
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-11-09
                  • 9800

                  #9
                  I really thought about buying out and swallowing the juice. But I am situational capper and if I buy out I have nothing to stand for win or lose.

                  INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 550.00 win 500.00
                  507 Warriors -4½ (-110) risk 550.00 win 500.00 (NBA)
                  02/20/16 11:27:07
                  #35366536
                  Comment
                  • JMon
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-11-09
                    • 9800

                    #10
                    I also think...Iowa St no chance for B12 and losers of 4 of 6 are giving up too many points here. They will do enough to win.

                    INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 440.00 win 400.00
                    619 TCU +17½ (-110) risk 440.00 win 400.00 (NCAA Men)
                    02/20/16 11:28:08
                    #35366557
                    Comment
                    • JMon
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-11-09
                      • 9800

                      #11
                      Originally posted by italianbandit
                      Keep it simple JMon, GS 1q. Good luck.
                      gl buddy...
                      Comment
                      • FortySix
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 02-18-14
                        • 134

                        #12
                        GL JMon. I like the Warriors as well tonight. Clippers did well against the Spurs but lets not forget the Spurs had no Leonard who is their best defensive player. Warriors don't play D but neither do the Clippers. Once CP3 comes off the court for a rest, who is going to mark Curry? Enough said, I believe Warriors roll tonight.
                        Comment
                        • Goat Milk
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 03-24-10
                          • 25850

                          #13
                          Originally posted by FortySix
                          GL JMon. I like the Warriors as well tonight. Clippers did well against the Spurs but lets not forget the Spurs had no Leonard who is their best defensive player. Warriors don't play D but neither do the Clippers. Once CP3 comes off the court for a rest, who is going to mark Curry? Enough said, I believe Warriors roll tonight.
                          Paul will pretty much be on the court every minute that Curry is. Curry rolls off too many screen for Paul to be able to check him 1 on 1. You have to guard curry as a team and Clippers don't have the right team philosophy to contain him.
                          Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                          Comment
                          • Don_Omarion
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-23-15
                            • 2635

                            #14
                            with you on GSW , good luck JMon
                            Comment
                            • kidcudi92
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 12-14-11
                              • 15434

                              #15
                              warriors for me
                              Comment
                              • JMon
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-11-09
                                • 9800

                                #16
                                Originally posted by FortySix
                                GL JMon. I like the Warriors as well tonight. Clippers did well against the Spurs but lets not forget the Spurs had no Leonard who is their best defensive player. Warriors don't play D but neither do the Clippers. Once CP3 comes off the court for a rest, who is going to mark Curry? Enough said, I believe Warriors roll tonight.
                                Originally posted by Don_Omarion
                                with you on GSW , good luck JMon
                                Originally posted by kidcudi92
                                warriors for me
                                Let's gets this one guys. A bit on edge here.
                                Comment
                                • JMon
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 12-11-09
                                  • 9800

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Goat Milk
                                  Paul will pretty much be on the court every minute that Curry is. Curry rolls off too many screen for Paul to be able to check him 1 on 1. You have to guard curry as a team and Clippers don't have the right team philosophy to contain him.
                                  Goat you riding?
                                  Comment
                                  • DigBick86
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-06-10
                                    • 1931

                                    #18
                                    with you on this my big bet tonight WARRIORS -4
                                    Comment
                                    • JMon
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-11-09
                                      • 9800

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by DigBick86
                                      with you on this my big bet tonight WARRIORS -4
                                      gl....I hope we are not doing Don's avatar after the game.
                                      Comment
                                      • PrinceD
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 08-08-15
                                        • 388

                                        #20
                                        OVER is the play here
                                        Comment
                                        • trobin31
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 01-09-14
                                          • 9853

                                          #21
                                          Pounded Warriors 1st qtr, hopefully then I can sit back and enjoy the rest of game
                                          Comment
                                          • Seaweed
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 01-19-12
                                            • 26314

                                            #22
                                            Whole board on Warriors LOL
                                            Comment
                                            • trobin31
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 01-09-14
                                              • 9853

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Seaweed
                                              Whole board on Warriors LOL
                                              I like warriors 1st quarter, then grabbing some clippers double digits live in play....
                                              Comment
                                              • smitch124
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 05-19-08
                                                • 12566

                                                #24
                                                Bogut is out, Warriors very thin in the post tonight.
                                                Comment
                                                • louielouie
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-06-13
                                                  • 3149

                                                  #25
                                                  riding clips plus five and ml
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pilebuck13
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-15-15
                                                    • 17916

                                                    #26
                                                    crazy or what? taking under 228 here gl j mon
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JMon
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                      • 9800

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Seaweed
                                                      Whole board on Warriors LOL
                                                      Did you really find the time to post in my thread, with negative BS?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JMon
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 12-11-09
                                                        • 9800

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by pilebuck13
                                                        crazy or what? taking under 228 here gl j mon
                                                        I lean under....you see the over by large in the first half...under 2H
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JMon
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9800

                                                          #29
                                                          Last edited by JMon; 02-20-16, 08:50 PM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Russian Rocket
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 09-02-12
                                                            • 43910

                                                            #30
                                                            I took Clips plus five earlier today for a small play

                                                            ...and since I don't bet much baskets, the possibility of burial is pretty high.




                                                            good luck
                                                            Last edited by Russian Rocket; 02-20-16, 09:02 PM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JMon
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-11-09
                                                              • 9800

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Russian Rocket
                                                              I took Clips plus five earlier today for a small play

                                                              ...the possibility of burial is pretty high though






                                                              good luck
                                                              4
                                                              shame on you rocket and no vid?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Russian Rocket
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 09-02-12
                                                                • 43910

                                                                #32
                                                                the vid is there bud...I do agree about the shame part though
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JMon
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                                  • 9800

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Russian Rocket
                                                                  the vid is there bud...I do agree about the shame part though
                                                                  asking me to sign in...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Russian Rocket
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 09-02-12
                                                                    • 43910

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by JMon
                                                                    asking me to sign in...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • intermission
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-12-15
                                                                      • 2499

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Good luck man. I also got this bet and had curry over 8.5 points 1st quarter...he got two fouls and subbed out with 7 points
                                                                      Comment
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