[Smoke]

Good stuff

[KVB]

My metrics indicate that the books are, consistent with my original analysis, selling Denver at this point. I expect to see more action come in on Denver than Carolina through the rest of today and into tomorrow.

I still think the Denver moneyline is the bigger risk here but I will admit that there is a reason the books are able to steer money, because sharp analysts will react.

Once I took Carolina -4, I had hoped to see more and more reasons to get Denver. In a sense, I was looking for the market to talk me out of the play.

Like I said earlier…

...Of course, such a strong indication on the Carolina moneyline would make the contrarian in me look at Denver.

It seems like all I’ve been doing finding reasons to by Denver at this point. How does that usually work out?...

I’m still seeing reasons, within the marketplace, to take not only Denver, but the moneyline. A settlement here could be that Carolina wins and Denver covers; a 3 point Carolina win would take out all Carolina backers as well as the Denver moneyline players.

If that’s the case, this would not only be an entertaining game but would be a reasonable and natural settlement in the marketplace.

[Smoke]

Agree. Denver is the play here. Spread and ml

[KVB]

I'm actually thinking that line is going to hit 4.5 at on point.

Between now and tomorrow a lot of information can still be gathered from the markets but I sure "feels" like an upset is brewing.

[jjgold]

It is 4.5 now

[KVB]

It is 4.5 now

I meant across the board.

Same as earlier, only 4.5 in very few places, many houses still holding 5 and 5.5. They are holding for more of that Denver money from the unsophisticated public.

Houses like Pinny are ahead of the curve a little and don't need to bother with a number like 5 because of some types of players they attract.

Some houses still offering 6, and have for days, making up for the early line they had to absorb.

[pilebuck13]

kvb whats your backround bud

[Itsamazing777]

31 on denvers defense, will happen more often than not?

[KVB]

31 on denvers defense, will happen more often than not?

The short answer is yes.

In my opinion, the toughest defense Carolina has played was Seattle. I had Seattle at the time of the game nearly a touchdown tougher than Denver is today. While Carolina scored 31 points against Seattle, there was a defensive TD and a field goal off of turnovers.

Carolina improved when they faced Arizona, a defense that I had for that game just 1 point worse than Denver is today. In that game, Carolina essentially destroyed the defense. They scored 49 points on sustained drives.

In the previous two games Carolina was playing what I considered tougher defenses than their own defense. Like I said before, I have the two defenses today playing essentially the same ball while the offense is the difference maker.

While Denver’s defense has been consistent and strong, they haven’t really done anything too unexpected these playoffs. They have held team to just slightly less than I figured they would.

If that’s the case today, then Carolina is held to some 27 or 28 points instead of 31.

It is worth noting that I have a much bolder projection of 51 points as opposed to nearly the entire space at 45 points.

In fact, with the recent line movement on the Total and the discount vig, I have countered those groups and the public seeking a lower scoring game and picked up OVER 43.5 (-105) for Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

kvb whats your backround bud

Studied psychology, worked in finance, investment banking and networking. I've been involved with the sports markets for a long time. After discovering a few key elements of these markets, I never looked back.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Over 43 -120 is my biggest sb bet. GL to us or whoever is going with the over.

[Russian Rocket]

KVB I'm gonna tail you here on this over 43.5

Best of luck

[Itsamazing777]

I'm on it too, but with denver ml Hoping for the manning sunset scenario

[KVB]

Yeah, let's get this gentlemen.