Anyone know if we can find this MLB Over/Under Stat?

**gregmav1** · 07-28-15, 11:13 PM

Bump

**BuckyOne** · 07-28-15, 11:16 PM

My data is from a few years ago. Out of 21,632 only 1843 landed on the even numbered total.

6 - 24/2 games 8.3%
7 - 2580/275 10.6%
8 - 5717/474 8.2%
9 - 6298/622 9.9%
10-4470/270 6%
11-2084/179 8.6%
12-459/20 4.3%

lined 6.5 lands 6 - 7.7% lands 7 - 8.9%
lined 7.5 lands 7 - 11.8% lands 8 - 8%
lined 8.5 lands 8 - 8.1% lands 9 - 10.6%
lined 9.5 lands 9 - 9.6% lands 10 -6.9%
lined 10.5 lands 10 - 7% lands 11 - 9.8%
lined 11.5 lands 11 -10.5% lands 12 - 3.4%
lined 12.5% lands 12 - 6% lands 13 - 6%

**gregmav1** · 07-28-15, 11:21 PM

Thanks that's good info but I was talking more just straight over/unders... If it's 7, how many times did it go under, how many times over, not necessarily 6 vs 8 and stuff.

**BuckyOne** · 07-28-15, 11:44 PM

Sorry, will have to dig for that - it's out there. Amazing how close the linesmakers get on these things. There is a lot of ambiguity - is a o/u 6 1/2 -125 really a o/u 7 etc.? One thing I am pretty sure of is regression. If we find a sample size of 200 where 60% are going over - we are not the first ones to find that. Lines get adjusted by a hook and we are back at square one - the 7's we were betting on are now jacked up to 7 1/2's. The 7's we have are tough nuts to crack because we should only be paying a price of 6 1/2.

**gregmav1** · 07-29-15, 12:41 AM

I agree with all you said.

What I am thinking of / a possible plan is that something like a line of 6.5 goes Under 55-60% of the time. 6.5 everyone wants to play over and get that 3-3 game and hit that 7, and Vegas knows that. Same with like, 9.5 or 10 or 11, I'm wondering if the line is ever set at a number above 9, if it goes over 55-60% of the time or something like that.

I'm wondering if Vegas plays with people's minds. It's so hard to bet the Over on like 11, even if it's Rangers/Rockies at Colorado, so I bet people think wow that's so high let me bet on the under, and then it's a 7-6 final. I'm thinking maybe 10.5 and 11 or so go Over like 55% of the time. That's my thinking. If you or anyone knows where I could look into that that'd be cool. Thanks.

**gregmav1** · 07-29-15, 03:43 PM

Bumpin it up

**gregmav1** · 08-03-15, 02:26 PM

bump bump bump... anyone got any ideas?

**jjgold** · 08-03-15, 02:42 PM

I do not think it means anything because every year is a new year
Balls different
Umps change
Weather
Pitching changes
Rule changes

**gregmav1** · 08-03-15, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I do not think it means anything because every year is a new year
Balls different
Umps change
Weather
Pitching changes
Rule changes

but i think vegas' view of bettors' perceptions has remained relatively the same, and that's what i'm trying to get a crack at. if they think putting the line at 11 will make a bunch of bettors bet the under and vegas thinks it hits the over, i want to see that.