Anyone know if we can find this MLB Over/Under Stat?

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  • gregmav1
    Restricted User
    • 01-09-14
    • 1830

    #1
    Anyone know if we can find this MLB Over/Under Stat?
    I have no idea if or where we could find this...

    But could you find the over/under record of games that closed at 7, 7.5, 8, 9, 10.5, etc.? Like for example say there's been 200 games that have closed at 7 this year, and 90 have been over, 30 pushed, 80 went under... something like that?
  • gregmav1
    Restricted User
    • 01-09-14
    • 1830

    #2
    Bump
    Comment
    • BuckyOne
      SBR MVP
      • 01-02-15
      • 2728

      #3
      My data is from a few years ago. Out of 21,632 only 1843 landed on the even numbered total.

      6 - 24/2 games 8.3%
      7 - 2580/275 10.6%
      8 - 5717/474 8.2%
      9 - 6298/622 9.9%
      10-4470/270 6%
      11-2084/179 8.6%
      12-459/20 4.3%

      lined 6.5 lands 6 - 7.7% lands 7 - 8.9%
      lined 7.5 lands 7 - 11.8% lands 8 - 8%
      lined 8.5 lands 8 - 8.1% lands 9 - 10.6%
      lined 9.5 lands 9 - 9.6% lands 10 -6.9%
      lined 10.5 lands 10 - 7% lands 11 - 9.8%
      lined 11.5 lands 11 -10.5% lands 12 - 3.4%
      lined 12.5% lands 12 - 6% lands 13 - 6%
      Comment
      • gregmav1
        Restricted User
        • 01-09-14
        • 1830

        #4
        Thanks that's good info but I was talking more just straight over/unders... If it's 7, how many times did it go under, how many times over, not necessarily 6 vs 8 and stuff.
        Comment
        • BuckyOne
          SBR MVP
          • 01-02-15
          • 2728

          #5
          Sorry, will have to dig for that - it's out there. Amazing how close the linesmakers get on these things. There is a lot of ambiguity - is a o/u 6 1/2 -125 really a o/u 7 etc.? One thing I am pretty sure of is regression. If we find a sample size of 200 where 60% are going over - we are not the first ones to find that. Lines get adjusted by a hook and we are back at square one - the 7's we were betting on are now jacked up to 7 1/2's. The 7's we have are tough nuts to crack because we should only be paying a price of 6 1/2.
          Comment
          • gregmav1
            Restricted User
            • 01-09-14
            • 1830

            #6
            I agree with all you said.

            What I am thinking of / a possible plan is that something like a line of 6.5 goes Under 55-60% of the time. 6.5 everyone wants to play over and get that 3-3 game and hit that 7, and Vegas knows that. Same with like, 9.5 or 10 or 11, I'm wondering if the line is ever set at a number above 9, if it goes over 55-60% of the time or something like that.

            I'm wondering if Vegas plays with people's minds. It's so hard to bet the Over on like 11, even if it's Rangers/Rockies at Colorado, so I bet people think wow that's so high let me bet on the under, and then it's a 7-6 final. I'm thinking maybe 10.5 and 11 or so go Over like 55% of the time. That's my thinking. If you or anyone knows where I could look into that that'd be cool. Thanks.
            Comment
            • gregmav1
              Restricted User
              • 01-09-14
              • 1830

              #7
              Bumpin it up
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              • gregmav1
                Restricted User
                • 01-09-14
                • 1830

                #8
                bump bump bump... anyone got any ideas?
                Comment
                • jjgold
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 07-20-05
                  • 388179

                  #9
                  I do not think it means anything because every year is a new year
                  Balls different
                  Umps change
                  Weather
                  Pitching changes
                  Rule changes
                  Comment
                  • gregmav1
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-09-14
                    • 1830

                    #10
                    Originally posted by jjgold
                    I do not think it means anything because every year is a new year
                    Balls different
                    Umps change
                    Weather
                    Pitching changes
                    Rule changes
                    but i think vegas' view of bettors' perceptions has remained relatively the same, and that's what i'm trying to get a crack at. if they think putting the line at 11 will make a bunch of bettors bet the under and vegas thinks it hits the over, i want to see that.
                    Comment
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