150 Day Trial 2025 Sept 1st through March 1st 2026... diary

[usma1992]

Background: Degree in Electrical Engineering... held multiple jobs as a Captain in the Army, Electrical Engineer, Stock Broker, Poker Player, Professional Trainer and now I am a high school teacher. I started building a program from scratch over 15 years ago... and it has taken time and energy and experience but now it is fully automated. I have four programs built or being built. NFL... NCAAF... NCAAB and NBA. I will be running all of the programs this year. However, I will not be betting on NBA until next year. I was so burnt out from running other programs I lost track.

Last year: NFL was breakeven, NCAAF was exceptional, and NCAAB was below my expectations. Each year I upgrade my algorithms and back test them over previous seasons.

NFL2021, 2023, 2024)--- 2022 data was corrupted... I had to toss the whole season

Success rate based on current algorithms.

Bets placed over the course of three seasons. 192
Success rate 61.46%.
Net Units 49

Therefore, NFL is averaging a net win rate of about 16 units per season. I am betting approximately 25% of the games.

Philosophy: I don't bet until Week 4 at a minimum. Stats are based on the current team so I need a few games to accumulate those stats. Basing picks based on last years is dangerous because teams change. For instance, Aaron Rodgers is now a Steeler. Last year, I bet Week 4 and got crushed but ended up being extremely successful Week 5 and moderately successful beyond that.

Typical questions:
How can you adjust for injury? I can't.

How can you adjust for weather? I can't

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

NFL Upgrades: I decided to change the way I approached the Vegas spread. I adjust my program based on what the spread is in each game. Without getting into too much detail, I value the Vegas spread to the games more over the course of the season. Weeks 4-8 I take a valuation, Weeks 9-12 a slightly higher valuation and so on. I am trying to use Vegas's spreads against them because they are obviously sitting on more information than I.

In addition, I changed my valuation approach to the season. There is always a debate in my mind when programming. I trying to get the valuation down to a singular nurmber that I can optimize. I track all the past results but produce a singular number which I determine to be (Amount of Games bet * Percentage wins to a certain power). For the NFL, since there really isn't an ability to diversify your bets much because they only play 16 games a weekend, I chose to value Percentage win to a power of 6. This is not the same for Collge Football.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

NCAAF:

I decide to take a much more broad approach to college football. My system is currently generating about 33% of the games picked versus 25% for the NFL. Because there are so many more games in college football, I changed my approach to diversification. Instead of valuing percent wins extremely high in the NFL, I lowered the value of percent wins and increase the value of games bet.

If I can bet significantly more games at 60% win rate vs. just a few games at a 64% rate... I am taking the former rather than the latter.

NCAAF:

I broke out NCAAF in two the same year spans as the NFL, but I separated them. I have data from 2021 and 23 together and 24 as a stand alone.

Using current algorithms

2021/23
Net Bets
591
Percentage Wins
61.93%
Units(Won)
141

2024
Net Bets
288
Percentage Wins
61.11%
Units(64)

So betting about 1/3 on the games... each year with current algorithms is generating approximately 60 net wins.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[usma1992]

Week 1 Picks for College are already generated. I never bet week one because my model is statistical. I need data from the current team not last year's team. If you are interested to see... let me know.

Mack the Teach
Dave

[Optional]

[usma1992]

NCAAF Week 1 Picks... I do not bet until Week 4. However, I think these picks could be used similar to my bowl picks. Go through the teams that had minimal turnover on QB and Head Coaches. If they are playing a team with extreme turnover and my system picked them. Bet them.

Mack the Teach
Dave

	NCAAF	2025Week1				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	C Michigan	12	Toledo	32		44	-15.5	50
7:00 PM	W Michigan	11	Bowling Green	31		42	-8.5	58.5			Under 5*
7:00 PM	Ball St	23	Buffalo	36		59	-6.5	53.5			Over 5*
7:00 PM	Kent St	0	Miami OH	34		34	-31	45.5			Under 5*
7:00 PM	E Michigan	22	Ohio	32		54	-9	49.5
7:00 PM	Akron	7	N Illinois	37		44	-16	46.5
7:30 PM	E Carolina	45	Tulsa	28		73	14	61
8:00 PM	Wyoming	19	Colorado St	31		50	-10	48			Over 5*
9:00 PM	N Texas	40	UTSA	44		84	2	72		Home Plus 3*
9:00 PM	UCLA	14	Washington	21		35	-3.5	47			Under 5*
10:15 PM	Houston	16	Arizona	19		35	-2	44.5			Under 5*
12:00 PM	Texas	38	Arkansas	17		55	14.5	57
12:00 PM	Liberty	36	UMass	16		52	13.5	52.5		Away Minus 3*
12:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	19	W Kentucky	19		38	-13	52.5			Under 5*
12:00 PM	Tulane	26	Navy	30		56	6.5	53.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	39	Pittsburgh	26		65	9.5	54
12:00 PM	Ohio St	36	Northwestern	0		36	28.5	44.5
12:00 PM	Utah	13	Colorado	26		39	-10	47			Under 3*
12:45 PM	UL Monroe	4	Auburn	35		39	-24	46
1:00 PM	Coastal Car	20	Marshall	31		51	-8.5	56.5
2:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	29	Temple	26		55	-2.5	49.5			Over 3*
2:00 PM	Florida Intl	15	Jacksonville St	32		47	-14	58.5
2:30 PM	Michigan St	15	Illinois	20		35	-3.5	47			Under 5*
3:00 PM	Sam Houston	32	Kennesaw St	4		36	13.5	42.5
3:00 PM	Syracuse	29	California	29		58	-7.5	56		Away Plus 3*
3:00 PM	Hawai'i	35	Utah St	37		72	2.5	60		Home Plus 3*	Over 5*
3:30 PM	S Florida	39	Charlotte	24		63	3	52.5		Away Minus 5*	Over 3*
3:30 PM	Penn St	47	Purdue	0		47	28.5	50.5		Away Minus 5*
3:30 PM	Louisville	43	Stanford	16		59	20	57.5
3:30 PM	Boston College	15	SMU	36		51	-15.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Virginia	11	Notre Dame	38		49	-22.5	50.5
3:30 PM	Oregon St	27	Air Force	32		59	4.5	45
3:30 PM	LSU	34	Florida	18		52	4.5	55
4:00 PM	Troy	24	Georgia So	27		51	-7.5	53
4:00 PM	J Madison	33	Old Dominion	22		55	4	51.5
4:00 PM	Baylor	37	West Virginia	30		67	1.5	59			Over 5*
4:00 PM	Nebraska	21	USC	30		51	-9.5	50
4:15 PM	Missouri	18	South Carolina	26		44	-13	44
5:00 PM	Arkansas St	32	Georgia St	33		65	-1	59			Over 5*
6:00 PM	Rutgers	28	Maryland	32		60	-4.5	51
7:00 PM	S Alabama	22	Louisiana	29		51	-8.5	59
7:00 PM	Southern Miss	4	Texas St	54		58	-26	56			Over 5*
7:00 PM	Arizona St	26	Kansas St	28		54	-9	49.5			Over 5*
7:00 PM	Boise St	39	San Jose St	23		62	14	61.5
7:30 PM	Tennessee	26	Georgia	24		50	-9	48
7:30 PM	Oregon	32	Wisconsin	13		45	14	53
7:45 PM	New Mexico St	8	Texas A&M	49		57	-39.5	55.5			Over 5*
8:00 PM	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	37		61	-10.5	64
8:00 PM	Cincinnati	23	Iowa St	35		58	-8.5	53		Home Minus 3*	Over 5*
8:00 PM	UAB	22	Memphis	46		68	-14	63		Home Minus 3*
9:30 PM	Washington St	41	New Mexico	36		77	13	72.5
10:15 PM	Kansas	18	BYU	27		45	-3	56			Under 5*
10:30 PM	San Diego St	11	UNLV	36		47	-20	54