arie1985's picks (low odds for wagering)

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  • arie1985
    SBR MVP
    • 03-19-08
    • 1634

    #1
    arie1985's picks (low odds for wagering)
    I've been doing it with 2 sites for quite a while now and so far it's been going pretty well, I've been using AI (like ChatGPT) to help me vet bets and then place them for wagering purposes, this way you're not only "winning" from the low odds but also benefiting from the bonuses you'd get for wagering, these bonuses many times are worth far more than the bets themselves hence give you a small edge if you are pretty consistent.

    Still, risk is always involved, if you remember a horse with 500 to 1 back in 2021 made me lose $6,000 so I am respecting the challenge here with a huge grain of salt:


    Nonetheless AI can help you vet the bets a bit more, so you get a better context, stats and see if the odds you're going for provide higher EV or not.
    The difference between this and horses back in 2021 is that AI can vet your pick, and what I did 4-5 years ago was more "guessing" based on the odds, so there's a huge difference applying stats and analytics into it, but still ... let's see how far it will go.

    First pick posting here:
    FCSB or Draw = 1.01 (underdog was 81.00 in some bookies), starts in 6 hours.

    I can't post here all picks and live bets as it's time consuming but I will post here the good ones I like the most.

    You can also check out my historical record here, all documented + live bets etc. on my TG group:
    You can view and join @arie1985stake right away.
    Last edited by arie1985; 07-10-25, 10:11 AM. Reason: Inserting my TG Group Link
  • arie1985
    SBR MVP
    • 03-19-08
    • 1634

    #2
    Bet #2 - going against something that Bet365 is paying 200 to 1 for this one but this time it's not a horse:

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Screenshot 2025-07-09 184557.png Views:	0 Size:	18.2 KB ID:	29885661
    Stake is offering 45.00 on the over 3.5 for Colorado, but don't take my word for it, this is what ChatGPT has to say:
    Can You Safely Hit the Under at 1.01?
    • Yes, probabilities align: Colorado is unlikely to hit 4 goals—they've never scored 4+ in recent seasons, and 3.5 line is far out of reach based on trends.
    • Smart VIP grind: The 1.01 Under 3.5 is almost risk-free with these patterns. You’re banking on the status quo, supported by form, head-to-head, and bookie sentiment.

    Bet #2: Colorado to score Under 3.5 Goals.

    Comment
    • arie1985
      SBR MVP
      • 03-19-08
      • 1634

      #3
      Next Bet:

      1st Half - Penybont Total Under 1.5


      Confidence Level: 9.9 / 10

      Here's why:
      • Penybont rarely scores at all, let alone twice in one half. They average <0.5 goals per first half.
      • Kauno Žalgiris' first-half defense is elite — they concede just 0.11 goals per 1H on average.
      • Odds market agrees — Stake gives you 1.01 on this, while Penybont to score 2+ in the half is off the charts or even unavailable.
      • ✅ No known injuries or suspensions weakening Zalgiris defensively.
      • ❌ Only reason it’s not a full 10/10: freak red card or penalty in early minutes could ruin any bet.
      So unless we get a total statistical freak, this is as solid as 1.01 bets get.

      Approved for VIP grinding.


      Comment
      • Headsterx
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 12-03-16
        • 22833

        #4
        Cool! Tailing this pick! Let’s go!
        Comment
        • arie1985
          SBR MVP
          • 03-19-08
          • 1634

          #5
          Next Bet:

          1st Half - FC Santa Coloma Total Under 1.5
          FC Santa Coloma – Under 1.5 Goals (First Half)




          ChatGPT says it is a solid: 9.7 / 10


          ✅ Why It’s So High:
          • Santa Coloma almost never scores even once in the 1st half — two goals would be a miracle.
          • Borac Banja Luka concedes 0.55 goals per 1H, usually against stronger teams.
          • This is an Andorran team on the road, in a hostile UEFA qualifier.
          ❗ What Keeps It From 10/10:
          • Always a ~0.3% chance of an early red card, double corner chaos, or penalty.
          • Borac isn’t Zalgiris-tier tight — but still far stronger than Santa Coloma’s level.
          Verdict:
          • ✅ Very safe 1.01 grinding bet.
          • Use it confidently for VIP progress.
          Adding more info on this:

          Bet365 has 2 goals in the 1st half for Coloma set as 126.00 odds, and ChatGPT also says:
          • Borac concedes just 0.27 goals per first half on average.

          Last edited by arie1985; 07-10-25, 12:19 PM. Reason: Adding more info for the bet, it t would take place about 1.5 hours from now.
          Comment
          • arie1985
            SBR MVP
            • 03-19-08
            • 1634

            #6
            Well, that was over faster than I thought, oh well, at least I tried.
            Comment
            • Optional
              Administrator
              • 06-10-10
              • 61275

              #7
              Originally posted by arie1985
              Well, that was over faster than I thought, oh well, at least I tried.
              I guess that's a good reminder that the implied probability of 0.008 on ov2 at 125/1 definitely does not mean "lock".

              Frustrating still obviously.
              .
              Comment
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