Trump new tax law

**Headsterx** · 07-08-25, 04:01 PM

Where’s that poster Math? We need ya!

**alecmatt5** · 07-08-25, 04:49 PM

The question doesn't have a simple answer as there are a lot of variables with taxes such different tax brackets, whether or not someone bets enough for it to be worth it to use an itemized deduction vs the standard deductions, and whether or not someone files as a professional bettor or not.

However if you assume a tax rate of 24% then the new breakeven win percentage would be 53.15%

**TeddyB** · 07-08-25, 04:52 PM

Thanks, that's not too bad. We'll all just have to get a little bit sharper. From what I understand though is that if you win 40% of your bets it will hit you harder than if you win 60%, lol.

**pavyracer** · 07-08-25, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by TeddyB

Hi, I don't make much money betting on sports but I do pay taxes on it and make enough to help provide for myself. From what I understand it used to be that you had to win at 52.38% to break out even at -110 odds. Under Trump's new tax law you can only deduct 90% of your losses against your wins. Can anyone calculate what the new win percentage will be to break out even under this new law supposing that you pay 25% of your wins while only being able to deduct 90% of your losses? Thanks.

I think you have to win 53.2% to break even with 25% paid for taxes at 90% losses.

Here is the example I used.

$220,000 bankroll

1064 wins (risk 110 to win 100) = $106,400 won
936 losses (risk 110 to win 100) = $102,960 lost

$102,960 x 0.90=$92,664

($106,400-$92,664) x 0.25 = $3434 owed in taxes

$106,400 - $102,960 - $3444= $6

So if you wager all your bankroll of $220,000 and you make 2000 bets of $110 each at -110 odds you will go home with $6 profit after taxes at 53.2% winning percentage.

**EmpireMaker** · 07-08-25, 05:57 PM

This is a horrible facet of a horrible Bill.

**actiondan** · 07-08-25, 06:49 PM

i predict it will be fixed, harry reid would never have let this happened

**str** · 07-08-25, 06:57 PM

Just bet to win and exactas that pay 299-1 or less. No muss, no fuss, no taxes .
The takeouts are too high anyway.

Let me put it to you another way. Whatever they try and push you on like pick 6 or 8 team parlays, or anything any establishment advertises, do something else.
If you ran a company would you show everyone the least profitable play for you and your company and their best possible result , or would you show them that they can win millions with what is the worst possible situation for them percentage wise and the best situation for you ?

… Exactly!

Good Luck.

**stevenash** · 07-08-25, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by actiondan

harry reid would never have let this happened

Harry Reid, my kind of democrat, and I'm a registered republican.
100 % Nevadan, born in Nevada, raised and died in Nevada. Son of a Nevada rock miner.
Spent his entire adulthood fighting for Nevada.
I didn't always agree with Harry, but he's my kind of politician nevertheless.

**Headsterx** · 07-08-25, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by actiondan

i predict it will be fixed, harry reid would never have let this happened

Don’t trust the government to fix anything. If they try to fix something, it just makes it worse.

**stevenash** · 07-08-25, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Don’t trust the government to fix anything. If they try to fix something, it just makes it worse.

True.
There's too much tug of war that goes on in government.
You have the lobbies on both sides, like the NRA lobby or the tobacco lobby, or the environment lobby gumming things up, too.

My dad was a career G-Man; he was a military base engineer, and he would tell me all about money wasted.

**TeddyB** · 07-08-25, 09:04 PM

Yeah, it's an unjust law.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-08-25, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by TeddyB

Hi, I don't make much money betting on sports but I do pay taxes on it and make enough to help provide for myself. From what I understand it used to be that you had to win at 52.38% to break out even at -110 odds. Under Trump's new tax law you can only deduct 90% of your losses against your wins. Can anyone calculate what the new win percentage will be to break out even under this new law supposing that you pay 25% of your wins while only being able to deduct 90% of your losses? Thanks.

Hi, Teddy. Thought about your question. I'm posting a few examples.

Fair to say that Tax would go up by 30 to 50%. You are correct in saying that the 11-to-10 threshold would go up:

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-08-25, 11:01 PM

Ran some more simulations on Teddy's question. I believe that the break-even will go up about one point from .524 to .534. Look at these two scenarios.

Two basic ideas:
1) Gaming is a small-margin game. Can't survive additional fees.
2) Cooler heads will surely figure out how stupid this is. Ask each politician to kick back 10% of their salary instead.

**Number_9** · 07-09-25, 11:27 PM

I spent some time trying to figure this out tonight. I believe these are the new break even percentages per tax bracket (at -110):

(Tax Bracket: Break Even Percentage)
0%: 52.38%
10%: 52.66%
12%: 52.72%
22%: 53.07%
24%: 53.16%
32%: 53.53%
35%: 53.69%
37%: 53.80%

Let me know if anything doesn't look right. Hope this helps!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-10-25, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by Number_9

I spent some time trying to figure this out tonight. I believe these are the new break even percentages per tax bracket (at -110):

(Tax Bracket: Break Even Percentage)
0%: 52.38%
10%: 52.66%
12%: 52.72%
22%: 53.07%
24%: 53.16%
32%: 53.53%
35%: 53.69%
37%: 53.80%

Let me know if anything doesn't look right. Hope this helps!

Nice graph. I agree. That's pretty close to my exhibit (above).

**jamesrav** · 07-11-25, 07:48 PM

seems like this will just encourage some bettors to go offshore. With the use of stablecoins for deposits/withdrawals becoming the norm, a person's sports book account will essentially become an untraceable bank. If - as they say will happen - purchases with stablecoins become common, you could just withdrawal (transfer) a chunk to buy anything that accepted stablecoins. Any winnings via gambling would be untraceable. The 'problem' before was putting the money back into your US bank account, now it wont be necessary.

**2Sweeet** · 07-11-25, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Ran some more simulations on Teddy's question. I believe that the break-even will go up about one point from .524 to .534. Look at these two scenarios.

Two basic ideas:
1) Gaming is a small-margin game. Can't survive additional fees.
2) Cooler heads will surely figure out how stupid this is. Ask each politician to kick back 10% of their salary instead.

This No way they keep this

**slewfan** · 07-12-25, 08:35 AM

News Gamblers voice growing concerns over “Big Beautiful Bill” and impact on taxes

**pavyracer** · 07-12-25, 08:38 AM

Senate Republicans block attempt to roll back massive tax hike on professional gamblers

https://apnews.com/article/gambling-tax-trump-bill-republicans-6de8c89b9c1c775a38ea819facbcc0e8

Senate Republicans are rejecting an attempt to reverse a provision from their new tax law that changes the taxation of gambling winnings. Democratic Sen.

Senate Republicans block attempt to roll back massive tax hike on professional gamblers

**Optional** · 07-12-25, 08:49 AM

Some common sense. Nice.

**Ian** · 07-12-25, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by slewfan

News Gamblers voice growing concerns over “Big Beautiful Bill” and impact on taxes

Even Fox affiliates are turning on this bill.

**Headsterx** · 07-12-25, 10:56 AM

Stop the wishful thinking that this provision will be eliminated. Though no one has publicly came out and took responsibility for this provision, it was drafted from Senate Finance Committee. If they had a problem with it, then that committee would have voted it out. And I don’t believe any politician saying they were not aware of it.

“Both GOP senators (Sen. Chuck Grassley and Sen. John Cornyn) serve on the Senate Finance Committee, which crafted the tax provisions of the bill. The panel, which is led by Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), released the legislative language concerning the tax change weeks before the bill passed in the Senate. It went largely unnoticed until it was signed into law over the weekend.”

**ProSportsEdge** · 07-12-25, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by TeddyB

Hi, I don't make much money betting on sports but I do pay taxes on it and make enough to help provide for myself. From what I understand it used to be that you had to win at 52.38% to break out even at -110 odds. Under Trump's new tax law you can only deduct 90% of your losses against your wins. Can anyone calculate what the new win percentage will be to break out even under this new law supposing that you pay 25% of your wins while only being able to deduct 90% of your losses? Thanks.

Yeah, that tax change makes a difference. With only 90% of losses deductible and 25% taxed on wins, you’ll need to win a bit more than the old 52.38% to actually break even. Tougher grind now for sure.

**pavyracer** · 07-12-25, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Stop the wishful thinking that this provision will be eliminated. Though no one has publicly came out and took responsibility for this provision, it was drafted from Senate Finance Committee. If they had a problem with it, then that committee would have voted it out. And I don’t believe any politician saying they were not aware of it.

“Both GOP senators (Sen. Chuck Grassley and Sen. John Cornyn) serve on the Senate Finance Committee, which crafted the tax provisions of the bill. The panel, which is led by Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), released the legislative language concerning the tax change weeks before the bill passed in the Senate. It went largely unnoticed until it was signed into law over the weekend.”

Yeah this is part of the revenue they needed to make to give tax cuts for the rich. The gamblers are at the bottom of the priorities right now. Now they are all playing dumb like they knew nothing about it and are hiding from the wrath of the voters.