Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Predictions July 4th

**SBR Andy** · 2025-07-03T13:40:54+00:00

SBR's C Jackson Cowart shares his Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions for 2025:

Best bet to win (w/o Chestnut): Patrick Bertoletti (+135 DraftKings)

"It's easy to dismiss Bertoletti's victory last year in a field without Chestnut, but it feels like the market isn't paying close enough attention to how he won.

The Chicago-born eater, who ranks No. 2 in the world by Major League Eating, ate 58 hot dogs and buns to win the Mustard Belt. He's one of just three competitors (alongside Chestnut and Kobayashi) to ever hit that mark in this contest. His personal best far outpaces the field, and he should be motivated to reach 60 with his friend and longtime rival Chestnut returning to center stage.

While this bet opened as high as +190 last week, these odds at DraftKings are still a screaming value compared to the prices at FanDuel (-155) and BetMGM (-165), which both imply better than a 60% chance he finishes better than anyone besides Chestnut. I'd be shocked if he doesn't."

Best prop bet: Bertoletti Over 50.5 hot dogs (-140 BetMGM)

"If you only place one bet this year, make it this one - and make it in a hurry.

This total opened as low as 48.5 in mid-June, and it's climbed to as high as 55.5 at FanDuel. Even that's a pretty reasonable mark considering that Bertoletti reached 58 last year and touched 60 in practice before that. He's also enjoyed an entire 12 months to build upon that personal best from last year.

Bertoletti told SBR last week that he's on pace with his training from last year. While he wouldn't reveal a specific number, I'm expecting him to land somewhere in the 55-60 range (my best guess is 57), and I'd be absolutely floored if he doesn't clear 50. That's why this is one of my strongest five-star endorsements of the year.

Again, you'll want to be quick to the counter with this bet. We've seen his total climb by a hot dog or two every single day in the leadup to this event across our best sportsbooks. But BetMGM appears to have missed the memo. Take full advantage while you still can."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-07-03T17:20:54+00:00

Men's Hot Dog Contest betting insights from BetMGM:

“Joey Chestnut is a massive favorite, which has led bettors to wager on other competitors. Patrick Bertoletti winning is the worst result for the sportsbook. Chestnut's under hot dogs eaten is the most popular market. I can't claim to be an expert, but I know heat and humidity can have an impact so we will be monitoring tomorrow's weather.” – Halvor Egeland, Trading Strategy Manager, BetMGM

Most bet hot dog props
• 86% of money is on Joey Chestnut under 71.5 hot dogs eaten (most popular market)
• 92% of money is on Patrick Bertoletti (-165) to win without Joey Chestnut
• 99% of money is on Miki Sudo over 44.5 hot dogs eaten

Hot dog markets are approved for the following states: AZ, CO, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NC, ON, PR, WY

Competitor	Odds to Win	W/O Chestnut
Joey Chestnut	-2500	N/A
Patrick Bertoletti	+1200	+120
Geoffrey Esper	+2500	+250
James Webb	+2500	+260
Nick Wehry	+4000	+750
Any other eater	+5000	+1800
Derek Hendrickson	+8000	+4500

Year	Men's Winner	Hot Dogs	Women's Winner	Hot Dogs
2024	Patrick Bertoletti	58	Mike Sudo	51
2023	Joey Chestnut	62	Miki Sudo	39.5
2022	Joey Chestnut	63	Miki Sudo	40
2021	Joey Chestnut	76	Michelle Lesco	30.75
2020	Joey Chestnut	75	Miki Sudo	48.5
2019	Joey Chestnut	71	Miki Sudo	31
2018	Joey Chestnut	74	Miki Sudo	37
2017	Joey Chestnut	72	Miki Sudo	41
2016	Joey Chestnut	70	Miki Sudo	38.5
2015	Matt Stonie	62	Miki Sudo	38
2014	Joey Chestnut	61	Miki Sudo	34
2013	Joey Chestnut	69	Sonya Thomas	36.75