(College Base) CWS - opinion

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not betting real $$ on this. Just an opinion: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (53–11) — #3 RPI, #54 SOS (+625)

A few reasons:
...Coastal has pedigree. They have won a title in the past.
...Coastal is better than their name recognition sounds. Just won on the road against an SEC opponent.
...Talent level won't feel overwhelmed. Catcher is a top 60 prospect.
...And they have an ace starter (Morrison) to rely on. Normally need to bank on two big performances from your stud in this tournament.
...Some upsets blew open the bracket. More wide open this year.

[SBR Andy]

Some good insight there Chucky.

For those interested, posting the college world series odds, schedule, and AI prediction below:

2025 College World Series Odds:




2025 CWS Schedule:

The 2025 College World Series gets underway on Friday, June 13 from Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Neb. Here are the bracket's opening matchups, complete with first pitch times and television info:

- Arizona Wildcats vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Friday at 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Oregon State Beavers, Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Murray State vs. UCLA, Saturday at 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- LSU vs. Arkansas, Saturday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)


College World Series betting history:




AI Pick to Win from ChatGPT:

Arkansas (+240)

Based on this year’s body of work - balanced pitching, timely hitting, and depth in both the bullpen and lineup - Arkansas looks best-positioned to prevail in Omaha. Here’s why the Razorbacks hold the blueprint to win the 2025 College World Series:

- Depth into the weekend: Arkansas’ staff features multiple weekend arms capable of sub-3.00 ERAs, and it ranks inside the top 20 nationally in ERA.
- Lineup balance: The Razorbacks trot out several high on-base percentage hitters, plus power threats throughout the lineup.
- Momentum: Arkansas came through a brutal conference schedule before steamrolling the defending national champions in the Super Regional.

Arkansas' combination of top-tier weekend starters, multiple reliable bullpen arms, and consistent run production from the bottom third of the order gives it resilience that most other teams simply lack. Depth wins out in a double-elimination format, and Arkansas has it everywhere.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Andy! I would request that someone track AI's picks over time.

Telling you, I don't trust the bot. AI bot is no better than Stu Feiner.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not betting real $$ on this. Just an opinion: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (53–11) — #3 RPI, #54 SOS (+625)

A few reasons:
...Coastal has pedigree. They have won a title in the past.
...Coastal is better than their name recognition sounds. Just won on the road against an SEC opponent.
...Talent level won't feel overwhelmed. Catcher is a top 60 prospect.
...And they have an ace starter (Morrison) to rely on. Normally need to bank on two big performances from your stud in this tournament.
...Some upsets blew open the bracket. More wide open this year.

OK, I played it. 1* COASTAL CAROL 7.50 to win CWS: 1 to win 6.50
...Line bumped up a little. Bigger payout.
...I like the Coastal top 3 pitcher rotation. Top three starters combined for only THREE losses all year. Each carries an impressive K/BB ratio.
...Top of the bracket is not that daunting. Ariz/Louisville arrive in Omaha as outsiders.
...Chance to make the Finals. I like my chances at these odds.

[SBR Andy]

College World Series betting insights from BetMGM:

Line movement (Opening, Regionals, Super Regionals, Omaha)
• Arkansas +1100 to +475 to +375 to +200
• LSU +1400 to +475 to +320 to +225
• Coastal Carolina +8000 to +3000 to +1500 to +650
• Oregon State +3000 to +4000 to +1200 to +650
• UCLA +12500 to +4000 to +1800 to +900
• Arizona +8000 to +6600 to +4000 to +1400
• Louisville +8000 to +10000 to +3000 to +1800
• Murray State +50000 (5/25) to +50000 to +12500 to +3000

Highest Ticket %
• LSU 11.4%
• Arkansas 7.3%
• Tennessee 7.2%

Highest Handle %
• North Carolina 27.9%
• LSU 10.2%
• Arkansas 8.2%

[ChuckyTheGoat]

College World Series betting insights from BetMGM:

Line movement (Opening, Regionals, Super Regionals, Omaha)
• Arkansas +1100 to +475 to +375 to +200
• LSU +1400 to +475 to +320 to +225
• Coastal Carolina +8000 to +3000 to +1500 to +650
• Oregon State +3000 to +4000 to +1200 to +650
• UCLA +12500 to +4000 to +1800 to +900
• Arizona +8000 to +6600 to +4000 to +1400
• Louisville +8000 to +10000 to +3000 to +1800
• Murray State +50000 (5/25) to +50000 to +12500 to +3000

Highest Ticket %
• LSU 11.4%
• Arkansas 7.3%
• Tennessee 7.2%

Highest Handle %
• North Carolina 27.9%
• LSU 10.2%
• Arkansas 8.2%

Hi, Andy. What you just posted (above) is very useful information:

1) As much as I like Coastal Carol, they're probably over-priced in the opener vs Arizona. Mid-Major priced around -200 against a Major Coll school.
2) Murray St comes from WAY off the radar. Baseball is a pretty high-variance sport. Upsets can happen based on a few events that produce a big inning.
3) What BOOK offers the lowest juice on these games? Coll Base would be considered a non-standard booking until the CWS. So often, the books cheat on non-standard offerings. They juice it to the moon...b/c they aren't very confident in their pricing.

[Optional]

3) What BOOK offers the lowest juice on these games? Coll Base would be considered a non-standard booking until the CWS. So often, the books cheat on non-standard offerings. They juice it to the moon...b/c they aren't very confident in their pricing.

I haven't added it up but I would wager that the over round at all books is 35% plus. Some will be up over 50%.

I think that is why the people that jump on futures for this sort of sports early tend to do a lot better than most on them.

I don't have the patience or bankroll for long term futures though myself.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I haven't added it up but I would wager that the over round at all books is 35% plus. Some will be up over 50%.

I think that is why the people that jump on futures for this sort of sports early tend to do a lot better than most on them.

I don't have the patience or bankroll for long term futures though myself.

Thx, Opti. Yes, mostly a sucker's game. Even the bet I listed above.

Even on the individual games, books price to 30-cent juice. Not sure if PINNACLE prices these games tighter.

[SBR Andy]

Betting insights for the opening games today from BetMGM:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Game-on. Gonna need a rally.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Game-on. Gonna need a rally.

Tie-game. But I don't think Coastal's bullpen is that deep.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Game-on. Gonna need a rally.

CCU wins, 7-4! Nice comeback win. Chants have some momentum.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In the past I've followed the CWS closely. Not so much this year. A few comments:

*Coastal Carol plays Oreg St later tonite:

https://www.espn.com/college-baseball/game/_/gameId/401778093/coastal-car-oregon-st

Coastal is a BIGGER fav than one would expect. -140, when the matchup looks like a toss-up.

I'm reading the tea-leaves here. Look at Coastal's first boxscore. Coastal mgr pitched two starters for four innings each. Surely he's setting up to start ace Morrison tonite versus the opponent (OregSt) that he viewed as most dangerous in top half of the bracket.

Pivotal game. Winner gains a foothold. Lean to Coastal, but I think the line has adjusted for Morrison starting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chants win, 6-2. Morrison with an excellent outing.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

History in the making:
*ARK pitcher Wood is throwing a no-hitter thru 8 IP. 16K, 0 BB thus far. Would rate as one of the best pitching performances ever (if he can finish it off).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

History in the making:
*ARK pitcher Wood is throwing a no-hitter thru 8 IP. 16K, 0 BB thus far. Would rate as one of the best pitching performances ever (if he can finish it off).

Holy shit. The ARK mgr let him finish it off:

https://www.espn.com/college-baseball/boxscore/_/gameId/401778094

...0 H, 19 K, 0 BB.
...One HBP = only runner.
...If that was an MLB game, that line-score would rate among the best outings ever.

[Chiefs83]

Coastal vs Louisville
+2.5 (-134) Louisville to win a nickel

Mini Hedge as I have Coastal to win the college World Series @ (+600) for a dime

Also have LSU to win the CWS @ (+225) for another dime

Best case scenario Coastal wins by 2 or less

[SBR Andy]

CWS betting insights for Wednesday's games via BetMGM:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Coastal vs Louisville
+2.5 (-134) Louisville to win a nickel

Mini Hedge as I have Coastal to win the college World Series @ (+600) for a dime

Also have LSU to win the CWS @ (+225) for another dime

Best case scenario Coastal wins by 2 or less

Chief, check your #. Think

[ChuckyTheGoat]

...(my bad). I see that you are on Louisville.

Not going to bet this. But I'll give an opinion: Louis +200 is not bad.
...Coastal top 3 starters might be burnt. Not sure any of them are available.
...Might be gearing up for an elimination-game, if they need to use All Hands on-deck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chief, to re-iterate, I think your +2.5 is a great play:

1) People sometimes over-value long streaks. Coastal has won 26 straight. That's mostly versus a mid-major schedule.
2) I'm honestly not sure who Coastal starts today. Top three pitchers might not be available. Have to go deep into the roster to find innings.

[Chiefs83]

Live Bet Louisville +8.5 (-120)
2 dimes

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Live Bet Louisville +8.5 (-120)
2 dimes

GL. I see that Eikhoff started. His FRI pitch-count was pretty low.

I could see it, Chief. LOUIS will get to the CCU bullpen pretty soon.