I asked ChatGPT what the best futures bet are.
Used the limited "research" button 5 times max per month on ChatGPT and it ranked these:
1. Season Win Totals (Team Over/Under Wins): These bets are relatively reliable because bookmakers’ projections are quite accurate.
Strategy: Shop lines early and widely. Small differences in odds can trim the house edge, especially since futures have large built-in vig. Target teams with stable, predictable profiles (e.g. veteran coaches, healthy rosters). Look for undervalued setups – for instance, if a strong team’s schedule is easier than perceived, an OVER may pay bonus (or lock in an UNDER hedge if the team heats up). Sharp bettors sometimes wager midseason: e.g. if a contender is outperforming, bet a rival’s UNDER to hedge. In short, win totals reward disciplined, evidence-based picks.
2. Division/Conference Titles: Betting division or conference winners is moderately reliable.
Strategy: Focus on favorites at positive (+) odds. Avoid laying heavy juice on a known powerhouse (low ROI). Instead, bet the logical favorite in a winnable division – even a small plus-odds favorite – for better value. Shop different books for the best division/ conference odds. Consider late-season hedging if your pick falls behind (e.g. sell futures or “bet vs.” them to salvage value). Key factors: divisional schedule strength, injury news, and continuity. In summary, predictability is high for established teams, but bettors win more by targeting slightly undervalued favorites than by chasing long shots
3. Statistical Leader Categories: Futures on season stat leaders (e.g. NFL rushing leader, MLB home run champ) are much less reliable.
Strategy: Research prior seasonal production and role. Favor players in prominent roles (e.g. a lead RB who played all games last season, or a full-time DH with track record). Watch for offseason changes (new managers, lineups, coach signals) that could boost or diminish stats. Be wary of injury history or aging decline. Because hit rates are low, only bet when the odds greatly exceed your estimate of probability. For example, if a healthy star RB at +1000 still has better than 10% true chance (discounting injuries), that’s value. As with other futures, line-shop, and consider small multi-player parlay (e.g. two stat leaders together) to boost EV without risking much on any single name.
4. League Champions (Super Bowl/NBA Finals/World Series, College Champion): These are typically the least reliable futures bets.
Strategy: If betting championships, the consensus is to avoid extreme longshots (e.g. beyond 50-1) because “true longshots are rare winners”. Instead, look for “live longshots” – teams whose true chances may exceed their odds (young teams on the rise, stable rosters, favorable schedules). Contrarian timing can help: for instance, a team that starts poorly (injuries or scheduling quirks) might drift to 100-1 and later prove championship-caliber. Lock in bets early on undervalued contenders and hedge during the season via “betting against” them or cash-out if offered. In practice, the most reliable approach is splitting stakes: backing a favorite (small stake) plus a mid-range underdog (for higher upside). If the favorite falters, hedge on another strong team. Above all, accept that hit rate is low – these bets are more akin to lottery tickets, so bet small relative to bankroll.
5. Major Individual Awards (MVP, Cy Young, Heisman, etc.): Futures on end-of-season awards have very low hit rates.
Strategy: Pay attention to league context. In the NFL or NBA, quarterbacks or heavy stat leaders on the best teams are common MVP winners, so they’re the safest picks (but often at short odds). Look for undervalued candidates – e.g. a running back at +1500 or a rookie phenom – where bettors have overlooked them. Consider handicapping using early-season leaderboards or advanced metrics (for instance, PER is a strong NBA MVP predictor). As the season progresses, be ready to hedge: if your pick falls off, you can switch to a more likely winner or hedge by betting a rival. Given the low hit rate, bet modestly and only if the odds seem mispriced relative to your assessment of a player’s probability.
6. Rookie of the Year: By far the least reliable. Rookies have no track record, so preseason odds are speculative.
Strategy: Restrict stakes. If you bet ROY, do it with small amounts or multiple tickets (covering a few players). Favor rookies who start (quarterbacks who won camps, workhorse RBs/WRs) and who have heavy usage projected. Avoid players whose roles depend on complicated rotations or veteran injuries. Watch preseason reports closely – often the first couple of weeks of games will reveal the clear frontrunners. When possible, compare bonuses: sometimes, simply betting on a heavy favorite is the best “value” (even at low odds) because longshots almost never win.
1. Season Win Totals (Team Over/Under Wins): These bets are relatively reliable because bookmakers’ projections are quite accurate.
Strategy: Shop lines early and widely. Small differences in odds can trim the house edge, especially since futures have large built-in vig. Target teams with stable, predictable profiles (e.g. veteran coaches, healthy rosters). Look for undervalued setups – for instance, if a strong team’s schedule is easier than perceived, an OVER may pay bonus (or lock in an UNDER hedge if the team heats up). Sharp bettors sometimes wager midseason: e.g. if a contender is outperforming, bet a rival’s UNDER to hedge. In short, win totals reward disciplined, evidence-based picks.
2. Division/Conference Titles: Betting division or conference winners is moderately reliable.
Strategy: Focus on favorites at positive (+) odds. Avoid laying heavy juice on a known powerhouse (low ROI). Instead, bet the logical favorite in a winnable division – even a small plus-odds favorite – for better value. Shop different books for the best division/ conference odds. Consider late-season hedging if your pick falls behind (e.g. sell futures or “bet vs.” them to salvage value). Key factors: divisional schedule strength, injury news, and continuity. In summary, predictability is high for established teams, but bettors win more by targeting slightly undervalued favorites than by chasing long shots
3. Statistical Leader Categories: Futures on season stat leaders (e.g. NFL rushing leader, MLB home run champ) are much less reliable.
Strategy: Research prior seasonal production and role. Favor players in prominent roles (e.g. a lead RB who played all games last season, or a full-time DH with track record). Watch for offseason changes (new managers, lineups, coach signals) that could boost or diminish stats. Be wary of injury history or aging decline. Because hit rates are low, only bet when the odds greatly exceed your estimate of probability. For example, if a healthy star RB at +1000 still has better than 10% true chance (discounting injuries), that’s value. As with other futures, line-shop, and consider small multi-player parlay (e.g. two stat leaders together) to boost EV without risking much on any single name.
4. League Champions (Super Bowl/NBA Finals/World Series, College Champion): These are typically the least reliable futures bets.
Strategy: If betting championships, the consensus is to avoid extreme longshots (e.g. beyond 50-1) because “true longshots are rare winners”. Instead, look for “live longshots” – teams whose true chances may exceed their odds (young teams on the rise, stable rosters, favorable schedules). Contrarian timing can help: for instance, a team that starts poorly (injuries or scheduling quirks) might drift to 100-1 and later prove championship-caliber. Lock in bets early on undervalued contenders and hedge during the season via “betting against” them or cash-out if offered. In practice, the most reliable approach is splitting stakes: backing a favorite (small stake) plus a mid-range underdog (for higher upside). If the favorite falters, hedge on another strong team. Above all, accept that hit rate is low – these bets are more akin to lottery tickets, so bet small relative to bankroll.
5. Major Individual Awards (MVP, Cy Young, Heisman, etc.): Futures on end-of-season awards have very low hit rates.
Strategy: Pay attention to league context. In the NFL or NBA, quarterbacks or heavy stat leaders on the best teams are common MVP winners, so they’re the safest picks (but often at short odds). Look for undervalued candidates – e.g. a running back at +1500 or a rookie phenom – where bettors have overlooked them. Consider handicapping using early-season leaderboards or advanced metrics (for instance, PER is a strong NBA MVP predictor). As the season progresses, be ready to hedge: if your pick falls off, you can switch to a more likely winner or hedge by betting a rival. Given the low hit rate, bet modestly and only if the odds seem mispriced relative to your assessment of a player’s probability.
6. Rookie of the Year: By far the least reliable. Rookies have no track record, so preseason odds are speculative.
Strategy: Restrict stakes. If you bet ROY, do it with small amounts or multiple tickets (covering a few players). Favor rookies who start (quarterbacks who won camps, workhorse RBs/WRs) and who have heavy usage projected. Avoid players whose roles depend on complicated rotations or veteran injuries. Watch preseason reports closely – often the first couple of weeks of games will reveal the clear frontrunners. When possible, compare bonuses: sometimes, simply betting on a heavy favorite is the best “value” (even at low odds) because longshots almost never win.