Is There Really Any Point to NBA Betting? Or Betting at all?

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    replied
    Originally posted by arie1985
    I wouldn't call myself a gambling addict - though I won’t pretend I’m immune to the behavior. I’ve been around this forum for years, mostly betting on NBA totals. I’ve never liked spreads, sides, or moneylines. Totals always felt like the purest angle to me.

    But here’s the truth: I’ve reached a point where I’m seriously questioning if this can ever be more than just a side hassle. I know some treat betting like a side hustle or even a job, but is it really any different from roulette?

    You see a total at 215, it jumps live to 235, you take the under - final score? 270.
    Next time, you think you're being smart: "buy low, sell high," right? You take the under at 265 - still loses.
    Or the line goes to 220, you grab the over - it ends at 214. It’s like chasing shadows.

    And then the classic gambler’s fallacy: two games go under, so the third has to go over, right? Just like watching roulette hit black five times, betting black again - and it lands on red.

    After years of doing this, seriously - does it make sense to keep betting? On NBA? On anything?

    Would appreciate genuine, no-BS input from people who’ve been around. Let’s keep it real.
    This is a great post. Thx to the OP, this has turned into a great thread. Some great replies in here.

    Start with where Sports-Gambling falls in your personal Financial Statements. I think there are really two categories but I'll add a 3rd:
    1) Sports-Gambling = Entertainment Expense.
    ...This category is very common. And there's nothing wrong with it.
    ...Some guys like to go to the movies with their girl. Between the ticket and refreshments, that might be $50 (per week). The $50 might be similar to the average weekly losses your average gambler takes.
    ...You enjoy watching the games. You have to be in action on Sunday & Monday.
    ...But the preparation is limited. How are you generating plays? Not much science.

    2) Sports-Gambling = Net Income.
    ...Not many guys fall into this category. Strict requirements to qualify.
    ...A sports-gambling expert is putting in the hard yards. They're studying the game. They do the preparation.
    ...They're carving out an edge and submitting +EV plays. There's volatility in results, but they win over time. They turn a profit almost every calendar year.

    3) Sports-Gambling = Break-even venture.
    ...Guy is some mix of #1 and #2. Doe




    Leave a comment:


  • ProSportsEdge
    replied
    Originally posted by Getch13
    Arie, To put it in its simplest form it's ENTERTAINMENT. When it no longer becomes fun get out. I've been around this for over 50 years. In the old days it was pen and paper breaking down one match-up would take me countless hours, to most people this would be boring which it is at times.

    No way do you get rich quick, long slow grind. And you'll question your judgement like you are doing now, over and over the longer you stay in the game.

    Wishing you all the best of luck
    Getch

    Really appreciate you sharing that, Getch. It’s easy to get caught up chasing results, but you’re right—if it’s not fun anymore, it’s time to take a step back.

    Leave a comment:


  • TommieGunshot
    replied
    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

    Tommie:
    1) How much bank you make on Sports?
    2) What is your top sport to bet?
    3) I agree w/ one aspect of your comment. Being your own boss trumps a lot of the value of holding a good-paying job (where you work for someone else).
    1) about double what I could make in the workforce. Plus some more on slots and table games. I'll let you decide if that is because sports betting is so profitable or because of how much corporations exploit their labor.

    2) things are always changing. First year fulltime it was football because of how bad opening lines were on Sunday mornings. Then it was basketball just because of how many games there are. Right now it is baseball for obvious reasons. Past 12 months it was hockey because of some problems sportsbooks had with their samegameparlays. Can only speculate about the future.
    Last edited by TommieGunshot; 05-24-25, 10:59 AM.

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    replied
    Originally posted by TommieGunshot
    I find the combination of pay and working conditions to be far better than other job I could be doing.
    Tommie:
    1) How much bank you make on Sports?
    2) What is your top sport to bet?
    3) I agree w/ one aspect of your comment. Being your own boss trumps a lot of the value of holding a good-paying job (where you work for someone else).

    Leave a comment:


  • Getch13
    replied

    Leave a comment:


  • stevenash
    replied
    Originally posted by pavyracer
    NBA is 'rigged' so the true art of gambling it is to be on the same site of the fix before you place your bet.
    I prefer 'controlled', but your point is also clear.

    The books have been telling us for 100 years that all they want is an equal amount of money on both sides of the action; this way, the books are guaranteed a ten percent profit, to which I call 'bullshit' on.
    If the book could pay off a key referee and a player, then why settle on a crappy ten percent percent when they can clear 50 percent?

    The history books are littered with NCAA college basketball betting scandals.
    Boston College and NYU come to mind; there are a dozen other examples
    In the 1940s, there wasn't a worldwide web.
    The only forms of information came from rotary telephones, newsprint, and transistor radios.
    The television had just been invented, and they were just crude black and white sets that cost around a thousand dollars.
    Only the filthy rich could afford them.

    The point being that somebody had to blow the whistle, there wasn't much recorded evidence to prove any subterfuge.

    Last year, I did some research about the original owners of the NFL. The list is a who's who of unsavory characters.

    Grandpa Mara, the original owner of the NY Giants, used to book bets at Aqueduct Race Track in New York City, which is common knowledge. My grandfather used to tell my father that he used to see Mara at the track frequently.
    One of the original owners of the Arizona Cardinals, originally out of Chicago, was Al Capone's attorney.
    There are other examples, this shit still goes on.

    Jimmy Haslam, owner of the Browns, owns Pilot Corporation.
    Pilot's business offices were raided by the FBI about 20 years ago on suspicion of tax fraud.
    Twenty-five years ago, Eddie DeBartolo, the then-owner of the 49ers, pleaded guilty to paying off Louisiana's Governor to help him secure a Louisiana casino license.

    That's not really a good look for the NFL.

    Leave a comment:


  • TommieGunshot
    replied
    I find the combination of pay and working conditions to be far better than other job I could be doing.

    Leave a comment:


  • pavyracer
    replied
    NBA is rigged so the true art of gambling it is to be on the same site of the fix before you place your bet.

    Leave a comment:


  • Eddy Munny
    replied
    Originally posted by Getch13
    Gambling fallacies are misconceptions about how random events like coin flips or roulette spins work. The most common fallacy is the belief that past events influence future independent events, leading people to believe that a "hot hand" or a "cold hand" exists when none does.
    The Gambler's Fallacy:
    • This fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances.
    • The most well-known gambling fallacy is the belief that past events, like a coin landing on heads multiple times in a row, make the next event less likely to occur, even though each flip is independent.
    • For example, someone might believe that after several heads in a row, tails is "due" to occur.

    Other Gambling Fallacies:
    • Belief in Luck:
      .
      This is the belief that luck is dispositional, meaning that certain things (people, times, numbers, etc.) are consistently favored or disfavored by luck.
    Past events absolutely can and do affect future events in sports... It doesn't guarantee a specific outcome, but the human element present means there exists a more nuanced set of factors unlike the flip of a coin or a spin of the roulette wheel.

    Leave a comment:


  • raiders72001
    replied
    Originally posted by Getch13
    Gambling fallacies are misconceptions about how random events like coin flips or roulette spins work. The most common fallacy is the belief that past events influence future independent events, leading people to believe that a "hot hand" or a "cold hand" exists when none does.
    The Gambler's Fallacy:
    • This fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances.
    • The most well-known gambling fallacy is the belief that past events, like a coin landing on heads multiple times in a row, make the next event less likely to occur, even though each flip is independent.
    • For example, someone might believe that after several heads in a row, tails is "due" to occur.

    Other Gambling Fallacies:
    • Belief in Luck:
      .
      This is the belief that luck is dispositional, meaning that certain things (people, times, numbers, etc.) are consistently favored or disfavored by luck.
    Agree with a lot of this except the hot hand fallacy. People just don't know how to properly quantify their studies because they don't use the proper subsets. Some players are affected mentally by streaks, some aren't. If you take them as a whole, then you aren't getting proper results. The last time I made a bet on this was when Josh Hamilton was screwed up in the head. He was in a slump and I thought it would continue. Someone argued with me on a hot hand fallacy and we bet on it. I forget exact amounts but I bet he would hit at least 10 points lower than his season average in the next 10 games. That's an extreme and it went way under but sports are an emotional game.

    Leave a comment:


  • arie1985
    replied
    Good points guys, thank you.

    Leave a comment:


  • johnnyvegas13
    replied
    I had done well on nba playoffs up until this year

    Leave a comment:


  • Getch13
    replied
    By Ion Saliu, ★ Founder of Gambling Science


    The demise of gambler's fallacy, reversed gamblers fallacy was caused by Fundamental Formula of Gambling and Degree of Certainty, Probability, Number of Trials.

    Leave a comment:


  • Getch13
    replied

    Gambling fallacies are misconceptions about how random events like coin flips or roulette spins work. The most common fallacy is the belief that past events influence future independent events, leading people to believe that a "hot hand" or a "cold hand" exists when none does.
    The Gambler's Fallacy:
    • This fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances.
    • The most well-known gambling fallacy is the belief that past events, like a coin landing on heads multiple times in a row, make the next event less likely to occur, even though each flip is independent.
    • For example, someone might believe that after several heads in a row, tails is "due" to occur.

    Other Gambling Fallacies:
    • Belief in Luck:
      .
      This is the belief that luck is dispositional, meaning that certain things (people, times, numbers, etc.) are consistently favored or disfavored by luck.

    Leave a comment:


  • Headsterx
    replied
    Also, I would reduce the frequency of betting and avoid relying on those gambling fallacies like it’s going win b/c it hasn’t come up yet. But honestly, I do like betting on streaks or trends you catch. When something is hot, it’s hot and I’m betting it. But it took me awhile to grasp the understanding that it doesn’t happen every day nor every week. And there is where money and time management comes into play.

    As Getch has stated you should approach it as entertainment. But also we’re here to win money so I would generally ease up on my wager amount. It’s definitely smaller than years ago and though not making the big wins, I’m also not making the big losses. It generally is more entertaining and fun this way when betting at a lower amount and less frequencies.

    Leave a comment:


  • str
    replied
    Originally posted by Getch13
    Arie, To put it in its simplest form it's ENTERTAINMENT. When it no longer becomes fun get out. I've been around this for over 50 years. In the old days it was pen and paper breaking down one match-up would take me countless hours, to most people this would be boring which it is at times.

    No way do you get rich quick, long slow grind. And you'll question your judgement like you are doing now, over and over the longer you stay in the game.

    Wishing you all the best of luck
    Getch

    The above quote is about as good a post as one might find. Great job with that Gretch !

    The point of betting is IMO, like solving a puzzle. If you enjoy the game, play it. But this stuff about making money that most people equate to the same thing has having a job and an income is nonsense.

    This should be fun. This should be what you enjoy on a Sunday afternoon or a weekday.
    The game of betting is great. But the place people take it to is stupid.

    If you enjoy it, treat it like any form of entertainment. Like going to the movies. But you don't go to 5 movies or double up or more and watch 8 movies.
    It's not betting that is the problem. It is where people take it that IS the problem.

    So, you can control it. It's all a out the outlook. But when it controls you, it is no longer enjoyable. It becomes an addiction .

    Own it Arie.

    And if you find it owning you, step back and do not allow that. You are smarter than that.

    Good ,luck sir.
    Last edited by str; 05-23-25, 02:22 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Getch13
    replied
    Arie, To put it in its simplest form it's ENTERTAINMENT. When it no longer becomes fun get out. I've been around this for over 50 years. In the old days it was pen and paper breaking down one match-up would take me countless hours, to most people this would be boring which it is at times.

    No way do you get rich quick, long slow grind. And you'll question your judgement like you are doing now, over and over the longer you stay in the game.

    Wishing you all the best of luck
    Getch

    Leave a comment:


  • Is There Really Any Point to NBA Betting? Or Betting at all?

    I wouldn't call myself a gambling addict - though I won’t pretend I’m immune to the behavior. I’ve been around this forum for years, mostly betting on NBA totals. I’ve never liked spreads, sides, or moneylines. Totals always felt like the purest angle to me.

    But here’s the truth: I’ve reached a point where I’m seriously questioning if this can ever be more than just a side hassle. I know some treat betting like a side hustle or even a job, but is it really any different from roulette?

    You see a total at 215, it jumps live to 235, you take the under - final score? 270.
    Next time, you think you're being smart: "buy low, sell high," right? You take the under at 265 - still loses.
    Or the line goes to 220, you grab the over - it ends at 214. It’s like chasing shadows.

    And then the classic gambler’s fallacy: two games go under, so the third has to go over, right? Just like watching roulette hit black five times, betting black again - and it lands on red.

    After years of doing this, seriously - does it make sense to keep betting? On NBA? On anything?

    Would appreciate genuine, no-BS input from people who’ve been around. Let’s keep it real.
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