NBA WCF: Timberwolves vs Thunder Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 2025-05-20T15:17:54+00:00

NBA Western Conference Finals predictions from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Thunder to Win Series (-303 Caesars)

"Truth be told, Oklahoma City had little to play for in the regular season. Fans and skeptics wanted to see how this young Thunder team would fare in its second straight postseason, and after sweeping Memphis, the top seed answered that question in emphatic fashion against Denver.

The Nuggets - who possess a championship-winning core, experience, and the world's best player - gave OKC everything it could handle and then some. However, the Thunder showed maturity and poise beyond their years and won the series in seven games. Now, there's little question about who the title favorites are going forward.

While Minnesota has made quick work of Los Angeles and Golden State to get here, the Lakers and Warriors were deeply flawed teams. The Timberwolves dominated both with physicality and size, with the former not having a starting-level big on its roster and the latter missing Stephen Curry for all but 13 minutes.

This isn't intended to detract from Minnesota's accomplishments, but rather to put the situation into context before analyzing the Western Conference Finals. In the end, Oklahoma City has all of the necessary tools to dominate the Timberwolves.

The Thunder are among the best defensive teams in history. Mark Daigneault's men thrive on creating turnovers, and they are among the best transition teams in the league, as we saw in Game 7 against the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Minnesota can get careless in possession, which plays right into its opponent's hands.

The holes that the Timberwolves exploited with Rudy Gobert won't be there against Oklahoma City, which has two seven-footers (Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren) as rim protectors. If the Thunder's defense plays as well in this series as it did against Denver, it's unlikely Minnesota has an answer.

The Timberwolves are talented enough to steal a pair of games in this series, especially if they overwhelm OKC from 3-point range. Nevertheless, unless Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle play the best basketball of their lives, the West's top seed should take care of business rather easily."

Timberwolves vs Thunder series best bets:

Thunder win series 4-2 (+390 FanDuel)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 25+ in every game (+270 FanDuel)
Alex Caruso to record 1+ made 3-pointer in every game (+320 FanDuel)

**brock** · 2025-05-20T17:30:36+00:00

Tonight's game I see a -6.5. My take Oklahoma -6.5

**SBR Andy** · 2025-05-20T17:34:32+00:00

Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 1 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Rudy Gobert Under 9.5 points (-120 BetMGM)

"Gobert has been a big talking point in these playoffs due to his stellar closeout games against both Golden State and Los Angeles. He scored 17 and 27 points in those games, respectively, but he's still gone Under 10 points at an 80% clip this postseason.

Oklahoma City will play a two-big lineup at times, which is very different from the small-ball approaches taken by the Lakers and Clippers. The Thunder have elite-level rim protectors across the board, so don't expect Gobert to get much action in the scoring department."

Alex Caruso Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+116 FanDuel)

"Caruso has been Mr. Consistent from beyond the arc this postseason, cashing this prop for us in the past. He went Over 1.5 made 3-pointers in five of seven games in the last series, so it's surprising to see our best sports betting apps still offering the play at plus-money."

Bonus bet: Jalen Williams to record a double-double (+1300 DraftKings)

"Williams has just three double-doubles this season, but he's gotten close numerous times in the playoffs and against the Timberwolves. J-Dub's assist numbers are up in the postseason, as he averages 5.7 per game, and even touched double-digits in Game 6.

Minnesota's biggest flaw is its inability to take care of the basketball. The Thunder could capitalize on these mistakes, turning turnovers into transition points, assisted by anyone on the floor."

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 2025-05-20T17:47:24+00:00

Thunder win series 4-2 (+390 FanDuel)
...Sort of like this one. Seems just about right to me.
...I like the angle on OKC not going full-throttle in the Reg Season. DEN pressed them, and they had just enough.
...MINN has played as well as possible. So, OKC is on notice.
...MINN is solid. They're too good to get blanked. OKC could be 3-2 going into Gm6, which would make +390 a great price.

**Zawad** · 2025-05-20T18:03:25+00:00

I also take Oklahoma -6.5

**Headsterx** · 2025-05-20T20:09:19+00:00

The Finals that NBA doesn’t want will happen…

Pacers v. Thunder

**ttwarrior1** · 2025-05-20T21:14:46+00:00

going to 7

**stevenash** · 2025-05-21T00:08:13+00:00

Tons of value on the Wolves to win the series, and Minny has a big edge with playoff experience, not only that, Minny's 1-8 roster is deeper (IMO) than OKC's 1-8 rotation.

Even if I'm wrong, and trust me on this, I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again, Minny (IMO) is the way to go here.

**SBR Andy** · 2025-05-21T12:25:58+00:00

The Thunder dominate the second half to take Game 1 by a score of 114-88.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Thunder -650 / Timberwolves +475