2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The 151st Run for the Roses is almost here and 2025 Kentucky Derby Odds are starting to settle on the board. Let's take a look at the horses in the field, post positions, and current prices.

*Odds as of May 2nd via FanDuel Racing

Horse	Odds	Post Position	Trainer
Journalism	7-2	8	Michael McCarthy
Sovereignty	10-1	18	Bill Matt
Sandman	5-1	17	Mark Casse
Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)	OTB	4	Bob Baffert
Baeza	30-1	21	John Shirrefs
Burnham Square	17-1	9	Ian Wilkes
Luxor Cafe	13-1	7	Noriyuki Hori
Citizen Bull	15-1	1	Bob Baffert
Grande (SCRATCHED)	OTB	10	Todd Pletcher
East Avenue	32-1	12	Brendan Walsh
Publisher	28-1	13	Steve Asmussen
Tiztastic	18-1	14	Steve Asmussen
Neoequos	52-1	2	Saffie Joseph Jr.
Final Gambit	16-1	3	Brad Cox
American Promise	12-1	5	D. Wayne Lukas
Admire Daytona	39-1	6	Yukihiro Kato
Flying Mohawk	33-1	11	Whit Beckman
Render Judgement	12-1	15	Kenny McPeek
Coal Battle	28-1	16	Lonnie Briley
Chunk of Gold	31-1	19	Ethan Weste
Owen Almighty	39-1	20	Brian Lynch

What are your Kentucky Derby predictions for the big race on Saturday? I know we've got some great horse cappers in the community so let's find some winners!

I'll take a shot on Chunk of Gold at 30-1.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Andy, I won't claim to know any of those horses:
1) Watched a few videos. They claim a lot of early-speed. That would tell me that those horses cancel out. Will be looking for a strong late-closer.
2) This is a great week to review past Derby winners. Some nice longshots got home. Would love to get piece of an exotic win.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

I'm going with Tiztastic.

[brock]

Journalism

3-1

8

$60 pl/show

[SBR Andy]

Kentucky Derby longshot and sleeper picks from SBR's Brian Robin:

Luxor Cafe (15-1)

"We get teased by Japanese horses every year, but one of these years, a Japanese horse will win the Kentucky Derby. It almost happened last year with Forever Young, who finished third in a photo finish to Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone.

Now, meet the latest Great Eastern Hope in this American Pharoah horse. And while the progeny of the 2015 Triple Crown winner haven’t blown up Triple Crown odds races, Luxor Cafe has shown the speed necessary to be a factor in this Derby. He comes in riding a four-race winning streak, recently capped with a resounding, five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes that featured a scintillating 36.5-second final three furlongs.

Luxor Cafe has won twice on left-hand turn tracks, and his off-the-pace stalker style should travel well - emphasis on "travel." Can Luxor Cafe take his considerable speed to the U.S.? Not every Japanese invader can. While he’s not as strong as Forever Young, who raced in the Middle East against American horses (thus providing a gauge on his ability), Luxor Cafe beat the other Japanese horse in the field - Admire Daytona - twice.

And Admire Daytona came back to win the UAE Derby. Throw all of this in the hopper, and even if you can’t get past betting a Japanese horse to win America’s most prized race, get Luxor Cafe everywhere else on your exotic wagers."


Grande (20-1)

"Don’t expect this son of Curlin and the only opportunity in Derby 151 for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to win his third Derby to be 20-1 when the gate opens Saturday. That’s because lightly raced (3–2-1-0) Grande checks plenty of boxes of what you look for in an exotic-wager Derby candidate.

First, there’s the speed. Grande’s runner-up finish to Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial featured a 12.4-second final furlong and a 37.3-second final three furlongs. That’s the fourth-fastest on dirt in this year’s Derby and it earned him a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. In that race, Grande was wide the entire trip, yet found that necessary gear to finish a strong second.

Then, there’s Grande’s running style. Stalkers do very well in Derbies, and the expected pace should set up nicely for him to be in the mix coming out of the second turn. He should be featured and liberally sprinkled on your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets."


Rodriguez (12-1)

"It’s a Kentucky Derby, so In Bob Baffert, We Trust. Even when we’re talking about a speed horse in a race where 35% of the field falls into that genus of need-the-lead horses. Rodriguez is clearly the best of that genus, one including Champion 2-year-old Citizen Bull, American Promise, Neoequos, East Avenue, Owen Almighty, and Admire Daytona - all of whom prefer front-running their races.

The question with Rodriguez is can he win when he’s not on the lead? He won the Wood Memorial with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure: one of only three triple-digit Beyers in the field. His 36.9-second final three furlongs in that race is the fastest on dirt of any Derby contender, illustrating the ability to finish what he starts. The two times he made the lead, Rodriguez did finish what he started, winning that Wood Memorial and a route race where he beat buzzhorse Baeza.

However, the two times he didn’t make the lead, he was destroyed by a combined 15 1/4 lengths by Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes and Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Baffert set him up for that Wood victory by removing blinkers, and veteran jockey Mike Smith - he of the two Kentucky Derby victories - knows what buttons to push and when.

But the best way to bet Rodriguez is as a flyer to win, hoping that he somehow takes the lead, isn’t pushed into insane fractions and follows the playbook of 2021’s Medina Spirit, who went gate-to-wire at 12-1 and crossed the finish line first, before being disqualified a week after the Derby."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you, ANDY. I'll be looking at Grande.

I like this concept of stalkers that clean up late. Derby fields are about 2x as big as normal. The early speed horses often negate each other.

[Snowball]

Thank you, ANDY. I'll be looking at Grande.

I like this concept of stalkers that clean up late. Derby fields are about 2x as big as normal. The early speed horses often negate each other.

hey chuck it's an interesting ticket. i haven't made up my mind yet and won't until i see how the tack is, it might be somewhat damp.

The pp's can be broken down into three segments. Most are discounting the inside speed. Exceptions for some include the 4 and to a lesser extent, the 5. Then we got the two Japs, of which the 7 is considered the most capable in this race. Next, there are plenty of pressers and closers in the middle, but the best known are on the outside, especially the 17 and 18.

There are also two closers that don't have experience on the dirt, the 3 and 11. Of which the 3 is considered more able, but most are still discounting him for surface. But this argument is actually stronger against the 11, because the 3 has won on synthetic which is more like dirt than turf, and some horses transition from synthetic to dirt without any effect. Plus, the 3 is considered more able.

it's like this...

1: Citizen Bull: most writing him off to fade before 2nd turn
2: Neoquos: most writing him off for 1st or 2nd, but some think he can show in exotics
3: Final Gambit: ditto the 2 but with surface worries. has the best closer ability of the inside (but unknown on dirt)
4: Rodriguez: capable of the distance but also has reputation of liking/"needing" the lead or could become a pace-follower. hence, most figure him, if he's going to show, to be 3.4 but some say if he doesn't have lead he's going to run with the pack and not try to capture the lead.
5: American Promise: has experience at CD and early speed with ability/pedigree for the distance but most question his ability. of those who do not question his ability they are quite outspoken and think he can win
6: Admire Daytona: being widely discounted due to UAB derby win not so fast and the eyeball test, not as strong as 7 in pace
7: Luxor Cafe: an American horse but Japanese ownership. has his believers and looks phenomenal but data guys won't touch him.
8: Journalism: the fave and a strong fave for all good reasons but will still need a decent trip or could fail (same can be said for all the field). the 8 will be ubiquitously bet in all payout slots 1-4..
9: Burnham Square: impressive rising speed and class numbers and has pace to finish ITM but i don't see hardly anyone putting him on top.
10: Grande: has only run 3 races but that's really about the only negative. can run the whole track. getting mentioned as a contender esp in exotics.
11: Flying Mohawk: turf horse and not considered a viable contender, lucky to be there. unpopular choice.
12: East Avenue: the earliest speed horse in the middle, mostly discounted as a lead needer, unless he has a big lead. some not writing him off because they think he can have a big lead on his best break, but still not a popular bet given unreliability and stamina concerns at this distance
13: Publisher: a pace horse that is still a maiden but can run with the best of them especially in the final 3/8, most think he has a chance with a good trip to be itm but hardly anyone thinks he can win
14: Tiztastic: another pace horse but also capable of high figures, versatile and reliable but most question his ability to finish 1-2. similar to the 9, 10, 13 in that the lean is to include in exotics not on top
15: render Judgement: longshot to come in the money. lack of ability concerns, late entry.
16: Coal Battle: smart horse with a fighting spirit but most question ability to payout here. will need help but can exploit opportunities.
17: Sandman: 2nd fave. lots to like but some worries include gate problems and easily distracted. has been able to win despite this due to raw power and late running style but against this field will need a clear trip in the last leg. popular pick amongst general public.
18: Sovereignty: considered the best overall horse on the outside by handicapper community, 3rd fave probably should be 2nd fave. Broad strengths.
19: Chunk O'Gold: similar to 16 in that the horse is considered flexible and can exploit opps but most question the talent level relative to others.
20: Owen Almighty: everyone writing off the 20 thinking he's going to fade too soon, and has a bad post, but has track experience at CD and could possibly be managed into staying a player all the way (my opinion) or to surface if he gets help. kind of the running joke of the derby though. especially since the chance of rain has been discounted.

noticing a lot of commonality in opinions that is a little scary, such as the overweight on 18 and 17 and near unanimosity on the 8. i also think the cappers on social media have elevated the 9 and 10.
i do like them both but wanted them to be not so noticed.

can't help but wonder if the trips will be open enough for those outsiders which historically aren't winners as much. for example in 45 posts the 17 has never won.
considering the middle portion has some horses that are capable of overtaking the rail speed of the inside then this could become an obstable for the outside to pass the middle soon enough. i think the 17 and 18 will have to make their move sooner than they usually do, which is likely to cause some unpredictable bunching. if they waste too much track trying to get a clear lane they might not be able to win. this is why i think it's important to cover all 3 segments on top so that you have a chance. because it looks like everyone is discounting the inside so much that they aren't accounting for the possibility of bad trips that could keep the inside speed on top if it gets a big enough lead. by inside I mean 1-5. still, the inside shouldn't be considered the most likely winner, but the way the inside is being tossed aside makes me worried. have to watch the late action. absolute must to watch the late action imo.

[Kami40]

Neoequos
Admire Daytona
Flying Mohawk
Owen Almighty Good Luck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

hey chuck it's an interesting ticket. i haven't made up my mind yet and won't until i see how the tack is, it might be somewhat damp.

The pp's can be broken down into three segments. Most are discounting the inside speed. Exceptions for some include the 4 and to a lesser extent, the 5. Then we got the two Japs, of which the 7 is considered the most capable in this race. Next, there are plenty of pressers and closers in the middle, but the best known are on the outside, especially the 17 and 18.

There are also two closers that don't have experience on the dirt, the 3 and 11. Of which the 3 is considered more able, but most are still discounting him for surface. But this argument is actually stronger against the 11, because the 3 has won on synthetic which is more like dirt than turf, and some horses transition from synthetic to dirt without any effect. Plus, the 3 is considered more able.

it's like this...

1: Citizen Bull: most writing him off to fade before 2nd turn
2: Neoquos: most writing him off for 1st or 2nd, but some think he can show in exotics
3: Final Gambit: ditto the 2 but with surface worries. has the best closer ability of the inside (but unknown on dirt)
4: Rodriguez: capable of the distance but also has reputation of liking/"needing" the lead or could become a pace-follower. hence, most figure him, if he's going to show, to be 3.4 but some say if he doesn't have lead he's going to run with the pack and not try to capture the lead.
5: American Promise: has experience at CD and early speed with ability/pedigree for the distance but most question his ability. of those who do not question his ability they are quite outspoken and think he can win
6: Admire Daytona: being widely discounted due to UAB derby win not so fast and the eyeball test, not as strong as 7 in pace
7: Luxor Cafe: an American horse but Japanese ownership. has his believers and looks phenomenal but data guys won't touch him.
8: Journalism: the fave and a strong fave for all good reasons but will still need a decent trip or could fail (same can be said for all the field). the 8 will be ubiquitously bet in all payout slots 1-4..
9: Burnham Square: impressive rising speed and class numbers and has pace to finish ITM but i don't see hardly anyone putting him on top.
10: Grande: has only run 3 races but that's really about the only negative. can run the whole track. getting mentioned as a contender esp in exotics.
11: Flying Mohawk: turf horse and not considered a viable contender, lucky to be there. unpopular choice.
12: East Avenue: the earliest speed horse in the middle, mostly discounted as a lead needer, unless he has a big lead. some not writing him off because they think he can have a big lead on his best break, but still not a popular bet given unreliability and stamina concerns at this distance
13: Publisher: a pace horse that is still a maiden but can run with the best of them especially in the final 3/8, most think he has a chance with a good trip to be itm but hardly anyone thinks he can win
14: Tiztastic: another pace horse but also capable of high figures, versatile and reliable but most question his ability to finish 1-2. similar to the 9, 10, 13 in that the lean is to include in exotics not on top
15: render Judgement: longshot to come in the money. lack of ability concerns, late entry.
16: Coal Battle: smart horse with a fighting spirit but most question ability to payout here. will need help but can exploit opportunities.
17: Sandman: 2nd fave. lots to like but some worries include gate problems and easily distracted. has been able to win despite this due to raw power and late running style but against this field will need a clear trip in the last leg. popular pick amongst general public.
18: Sovereignty: considered the best overall horse on the outside by handicapper community, 3rd fave probably should be 2nd fave. Broad strengths.
19: Chunk O'Gold: similar to 16 in that the horse is considered flexible and can exploit opps but most question the talent level relative to others.
20: Owen Almighty: everyone writing off the 20 thinking he's going to fade too soon, and has a bad post, but has track experience at CD and could possibly be managed into staying a player all the way (my opinion) or to surface if he gets help. kind of the running joke of the derby though. especially since the chance of rain has been discounted.

noticing a lot of commonality in opinions that is a little scary, such as the overweight on 18 and 17 and near unanimosity on the 8. i also think the cappers on social media have elevated the 9 and 10.
i do like them both but wanted them to be not so noticed.

can't help but wonder if the trips will be open enough for those outsiders which historically aren't winners as much. for example in 45 posts the 17 has never won.
considering the middle portion has some horses that are capable of overtaking the rail speed of the inside then this could become an obstable for the outside to pass the middle soon enough. i think the 17 and 18 will have to make their move sooner than they usually do, which is likely to cause some unpredictable bunching. if they waste too much track trying to get a clear lane they might not be able to win. this is why i think it's important to cover all 3 segments on top so that you have a chance. because it looks like everyone is discounting the inside so much that they aren't accounting for the possibility of bad trips that could keep the inside speed on top if it gets a big enough lead. by inside I mean 1-5. still, the inside shouldn't be considered the most likely winner, but the way the inside is being tossed aside makes me worried. have to watch the late action. absolute must to watch the late action imo.

Snowball, thank you! I'm going to digest this.

I don't have great racing knowledge. But I love a big race like this. So many opinions.

My views on the Derby (in general):
1) So many owners want to run ONE TIME in the Derby. How many horses can be thrown out?
2) I know the Japanese horse ran 3rd last year. I don't like the overseas shippers. Too much travel, different level of competition.
3) This field is huge. Horses are used to running in fields of 8-to-10.
4) Speed duels mean that these horses will tire after the midway point. I love the idea of multiple rockets. They'll be dragging last 1/4.
5) I'll be looking for late-closers at a price. Who can get the best trip and save ground?

[SBR Andy]

Kentucky Derby AI predictions from ChatGPT:

Prediction to win: #18 Sovereignty (5-1)

"Sovereignty (5-1) brings the most explosive late kick in the field, with stretch-running power that few rivals can match. He showed that turn of foot with a dominant Fountain of Youth win and a huge move from last in the Florida Derby, closing into a slow pace to finish a close second.

His pedigree points to classic-distance stamina, and he’s consistently run the fastest final fractions in major preps. A fast, dry track and an honest early pace would give him the setup he needs to launch his run. With a clean trip, he looms as the most dangerous closer in the race."


Best long shot: #14 Tiztastic (20-1)

"Tiztastic (20-1) looks like the most dangerous long shot in the field. He enters off a strong win in the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles, proving he can handle a route and finish with power. His pedigree is built for the Derby distance, and he’s shown consistent improvement with each start.

Positioned just behind the early speed, Tiztastic is likely to get first run on the deep closers. If the favorites falter or run into traffic, he has the tools to pull off a mild upset - and at 20-1, the value is hard to ignore."


AI simulated Kentucky Derby finish order:

1st	Sovereignty (No. 18)	5-1
2nd	Journalism (No. 8)	3-1
3rd	Tiztastic (No. 14)	20-1
4th	Burnham Square (No. 9)	12-1
5th	East Avenue (No. 12)	20-1
6th	Sandman (No. 17)	6-1
7th	Grande (No. 10)	20-1
8th	Rodriguez (No. 4)	12-1
9th	Publisher (No. 13)	30-1
10th	Admire Daytona (No. 6)	30-1
11th	Owen Almighty (No. 20)	30-1
12th	Citizen Bull (No. 1)	20-1
13th	Luxor Cafe (No. 7)	15-1
14th	Final Gambit (No. 3)	30-1
15th	Coal Battle (No. 16)	30-1
16th	Flying Mohawk (No. 11)	30-1
17th	Neoequos (No. 2)	30-1
18th	Chunk of Gold (No. 19)	30-1
19th	American Promise (No. 5)	30-1
20th	Render Judgment (No. 15)	30-1

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, Andy. Do you think AI has ANY track record for handicapping success?

I'll give you my two-cents. I would expect AI to predict like a FISH. Can't program critical thinking.

[SBR Andy]

Good stuff, Andy. Do you think AI has ANY track record for handicapping success?

I'll give you my two-cents. I would expect AI to predict like a FISH. Can't program critical thinking.

Ya I would say take it with a grain of salt. It has been fairly accurate predicting other sporting events, but not much history with horse racing yet.

Here is how the predictions were generated:

"These Kentucky Derby AI predictions were generated using OpenAI’s most advanced large language model version of ChatGPT, which analyzes vast amounts of data to simulate realistic outcomes and identify betting value.

While not a traditional handicapping algorithm, the model draws from a wide range of publicly available information, including:

- Historical Derby results and finishing trends going back decades
- Performance in prep races like the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Blue Grass Stakes
- Speed figures and pace dynamics from Equibase and other industry sources
- Jockey and trainer statistics, including prior Derby success and win rates
- Post position trends, track biases, and how horses break from the gate at Churchill Downs
- Betting market shifts, early steam moves, and public sentiment
- Weather and track conditions, especially how certain horses have performed on fast or sloppy dirt

By analyzing these inputs through pattern recognition and probabilistic modeling, the AI generates a projected finishing order and flags horses that may offer betting value - whether it's the favorite or an overlooked long shot."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, Andy. My favorite is Pace handicapping.

If a capper can see the race play out in their head, I think they have a good view. I know that late closers normally merit a look. What horse has the legs late in the race?

[S0BRiquet]

Journalism

3-1

8

$60 pl/show

Call me craxy but this may come back $300! Every time I don't score in the Derby I always look back and say "Why didn't I just do a show bet on ________, I WOULD HAVE DOUBLED MY MONEY!" But consider doing a WIN bet also as I would not be surprised to see Journ. go off at 9/2. Baeza and Sovereingnty will take some money.

[SBR Andy]

Kentucky Derby picks and predictions from SBR's Brian Robin:

Pick to win: Journalism (+350)

"We’ll get Journalism’s flaws out of the way early. First, a Derby favorite hasn’t prevailed since Justify in 2018. Second, Journalism hasn’t faced much competition in what has been a winter of small fields in California that included a five-horse Santa Anita Derby. Then again, none of these horses have faced the 20-horse free-for-all that awaits them Saturday.

The nits sufficiently picked, you’re looking at the most complete horse in Derby 151.

Speed? Journalism’s score in March’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita came with the fastest Beyer Speed Figure (108) in the field. His victory in the Santa Anita Derby a month later came not only on a slow track, but came with the second-fastest final-furlong time (12.3 seconds) in the Derby field, trailing only Final Gambit’s 11.9-second clocking that came on synthetic. It also came with a troubled trip that mandated jockey Umberto Rispoli navigate blocking and bumping, which he did en route to a three-quarters length victory.

Running style? Journalism is a stalker, meaning Rispoli will have him off the lead pack of speed horses, but ahead of the closers and deep closers. That style is perfect for Derbies and perfect for this one, which promises on paper to be a fast pace. Expect Rispoli to have Journalism in a prime position to pounce with a quarter-mile left. From there, Journalism’s distance-rich pedigree and athletic gait should do the rest.

Unlike many of the recent Derby favorites, Journalism figures to write a story with a happier ending. It’s not fake news to consider him the class of this Derby field."


Best Kentucky Derby long shot: Grande (+1700)

"This son of Curlin provides Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher his one and only opportunity to win his third Derby, and he’s one of the key long shots for all of your exotic tickets. Don’t dwell on the fact he’s lightly raced (3–2-1-0). Instead, consider the fact Grande checks plenty of boxes of what you look for in an exotic-wager Derby candidate.

First, there’s the speed. Grande’s runner-up finish to Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial featured a 12.4-second final furlong and a 37.3-second final three furlongs. That’s the fourth-fastest on dirt in this year’s Derby, and it earned him a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. It wasn’t the greatest trip for Grande; he was wide the entire race, yet found that necessary gear to finish a strong second.

Then, there’s Grande’s running style. Stalkers do very well in Derbies, and the expected pace should set up nicely for him to be in the mix coming into and out of the second turn, which is where three-time Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez should have him parked. With heralded sire Curlin, Grande is bred for distance, meaning he should be in the thick of matters in the stretch."

[ProSportsEdge]

Good stuff, Andy. My favorite is Pace handicapping.

If a capper can see the race play out in their head, I think they have a good view. I know that late closers normally merit a look. What horse has the legs late in the race?

Haha, well said. Late speed wins plenty, but only if the pace melts down. As for the power box—Carol’s probably using it to box exactas in secret!

[SBR Andy]

Field update: #4 Rodriguez and #10 Grande are both scratched.

#21 Baeza now in the field.