The Masters Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 10:05 AM

Masters picks to win from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Rory McIlroy (+650 DraftKings)

""This year is different", I tell myself for the 16th year in a row.

McIlroy returns to Augusta National off of a missed cut two years ago and a T-22 finish last year BUT with two wins under his belt in 2025. The Northern Irishman and four-time major winner won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Players Championship this season to enter Masters week with a rejuvenated swagger.

While that will do little to detract the doubters from his Masters struggles and major championship drought, he's averaging 1.04 strokes gained: off-the-tee across his last 20 measured rounds with an astounding 0.71 SG: putting over that time.

McIlroy has been one of the most popular Masters outright picks in the futures market, and I expect his odds to close shorter than +650."

Collin Morikawa (+1800 DraftKings)

"A two-time major winner, Morikawa has been knocking on the door of Butler Cabin and the green jacket ceremony the past three years. He finished fifth, T-10, and T-3 in his last three Masters appearances.

He has two runner-up finishes already this season - both in Signature Events - while looking for his first PGA Tour win since the fall of 2023. Morikawa leads all qualified golfers in SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green over his past 20 measured rounds, as well as the past six months."

Xander Schauffele (+2200 BetMGM)

"Schauffele's T-12 result in a watered-down Valspar Championship field a few weeks ago is his best result amid a 2025 season that was disrupted by injury after just one event. After opening at +1400 to win the 2025 Masters last April, his odds have ticked up to an appealing +2200 despite his two major wins last summer.

We're fading the cautious betting public on this one and jumping on the higher number for last year's eighth-place finisher in Augusta."

Brooks Koepka (+3300 BetRivers)

"Sure, Koepka tied for 45th in the Masters last year and he just tied for 18th in LIV Golf: Miami. But this is a five-time major champion who was a co-runner-up at Augusta National just two years ago.

Furthermore, Koepka opened at +2000 to win the 2025 Masters last April and we're now getting an extra $130 in profit on a winning $10 bet at the +330 odds."

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 01:34 PM

A few handicapping tools from datagolf:

Course Fit - Need distance and strong iron game like usual. Accuracy not as important, but a premium on putting and especially around the greens.

Course History - no surprise who typically plays well at Augusta. Can Zalatoris round into form?

Trending Players - Conners, Berger, Kim, Highsmith playing above their baseline performance recently.

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 02:35 PM

Masters Power Rankings from SBR's Esten McLaren:

#10 Ludvig Aberg
Best odds to win: +2000 via DraftKings
Pick to make: Top continental European (+280 via DraftKings)

"Aberg burst onto the North American scene with a runner-up finish in his Masters debut last year. He's been ranking near the top of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) ever since and was priced among the favorites by the Masters odds since markets opened last April. His most notable PGA Tour victory to date is winning The Genesis Invitational earlier this year.

Though he enters the week fifth in the OWGR, Aberg is coming off back-to-back missed cuts in The Players Championship and the Valero Texas Open last week. His short game and putting stroke have been struggling over his last 20 measured rounds.

The safest bet on the star from Sweden is in the continental European market, with only Jon Rahm priced ahead of him, and Viktor Hovland (+550) closest behind."

#9 Jon Rahm
Best odds to win: +1600 via BetMGM
Pick to make: Top former winner (+360 via Caesars)

"Rahm finished a forgettable T-9 in the weekend's LIV Golf: Miami event. That does little to inspire confidence in the 2023 Masters champion, who finished T-45 last year. Though that's not enough to write him off completely, it's cause for pause with Rahm priced among this week's true favorites to win the Masters.

The top former winner market - where Scheffler is his main competition - offers the best value with the lowest risk in what I view as a two-horse race in 2025."

#8 Shane Lowry
Best odds to win: +4500 via DraftKings
Pick to make: Top 20 finish (+120 via DraftKings)

"Lowry has logged just one career top-10 finish across nine Masters appearances. That was a T-3 in 2022, and he most recently finished T-43 last year.

However, he's moved up to No. 13 in the OWGR after completing the last calendar year at No. 27. He's tallied three finishes of T-8 or better this year, and his only missed cut was during the Farmers Insurance Open in his season debut.

He's third among all golfers in SG: approach across his last 20 rounds."

#7 Viktor Hovland
Best odds to win: +4000 via DraftKings
Pick to make: Top Nordic player (+210 via DraftKings)

"Hovland claimed his first PGA Tour win since the 2023 Tour Championship with a victory in the Valspar Championship three weeks ago. That lowered his odds to win the Masters after he missed the cut last year. His best finish at Augusta National was a T-7 two years ago, and he was the low amateur in 2019.

The Norweigan's short game and putting remain his greatest weaknesses. But he seems to have found his ball-striking form and regained some driving distance after multiple coaching changes."

#6 Brooks Koepka
Best odds to win: +3500 via BetRivers
Pick to make: To win the Masters

"We can't knock Rahm's performance in Miami without drawing attention to Koepka's T-18 result. He finished over par for all three rounds and tied with Anirban Lahiri and Lucas Herbert.

The five-time major champ failed to record a top-10 finish (or a top 20) in a major for only the second time since 2013 last year. He's tallied three top-10 finishes across his last six trips to Augusta National, and the +3500 odds don't reflect that course pedigree."

#5 Xander Schauffele
Best odds to win: +2200 via BetMGM
Pick to make: To finish top 10 (+225 via BetRivers)

"Fifth is about the worst I could have Schauffele ranked after he won his first two majors last year. He's also notched four career top-10 finishes in Augusta, with a best result of T-2 in 2019 and an eighth-place last year. Though he enters the week third in the OWGR, his T-12 finish in the watered-down Valspar Championship was by far his best result this year.

Driving accuracy and a poor short game have been leading to his early struggles in 2025, but his iron play remains ranked among the best in golf."

#4 Bryson DeChambeau
Best odds to win: +2000 via FanDuel
Pick to make: Top LIV player (+340 via Caesars)

"Betting DeChambeau to be the top LIV golfer at +340 is one of my favorite Masters picks. I view Koepka, Rahm, and perhaps Joaquin Niemann as his only true competition among the 12 members of the rebel tour teeing it up this week.

DeChambeau's T-6 finish last April was his best Masters result, and he won the U.S. Open later in the year following a runner-up in the PGA Championship. His 1.77 SG: off-the-tee over his last 15 measured rounds led all golfers by nearly three-quarters of a stroke."

#3 Scottie Scheffler
Best odds to win: +450 via BetRivers
Pick to make: To finish top 5 (+110 via DraftKings)

"There hasn't been a repeat Masters champion since Tiger Woods did it in 2001 and 2002. Scheffler, Phil Mickelson, and Bubba Watson each won twice over three years since, but it seems Scheffler will need to wait another year to continue his dominance of Augusta National.

Silly trends aside, the +110 offering from DraftKings for Scheffler to finish in the top five needs to be taken as a hedge bet of sorts against any other outright winner ticket."

#2 Collin Morikawa
Best odds to win: +1800 via DraftKings
Pick to make: To win the Masters

"Morikawa leads all qualified golfers in SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green across his last 20 measured rounds. He's tallied two runner-up finishes this season and three straight top-10 results at ANGC. Morikawa is as good of a fit to win this year as Scheffler and McIlroy, and our best sports betting sites are grossly mispricing him with odds that imply a 5.26% probability."

#1 Rory McIlroy
Best odds to win: +650 via DraftKings
Pick to make: To win the Masters

"It's been one year, and I'm ready to be hurt again.

McIlroy has two missed cuts, a T-22 finish, and a (distant) runner-up result to show for his last four trips to the year's first major. He seems to annually fall victim to the mounting pressure of his chase for the career grand slam, and his first major win since 2014. However, McIlroy returns to Georgia this year with two victories in 2025 under his belt, including The Players Championship.

He's third among all golfers in SG: off-the-tee and second in SG: tee-to-green."

**SBR Andy** · 04-08-25, 09:21 AM

Masters longshot and sleeper picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Brian Harman (+12500 BetRivers)
Alternate Masters Pick: Top 20 after Round 1 (+275 BetRivers)

"Harman, the 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year, claimed his first PGA Tour victory since that first major win by prevailing in last weekend's Valero Texas Open. He won by three strokes at 9-under par.

The recent victory came with pre-tournament odds of +9000. And while we'd expect longer odds in a much stronger major field, it's slightly surprising to see Harman's odds not shorten slightly with the recent victory.

He missed the cut each of the past three years at Augusta National and had a career-best T-12 finish the year before that. However, left-handed golfers have a strong history in the Masters, and Harman has plenty of experience heading into his seventh career appearance.

We can try to capitalize on some recent form with a bet on Harman to be in the top 20 after Round 1."

Matt Fitzpatrick (+17500 BetRivers)
Alternate Masters pick: Top 40 finish (+120 via BetRivers)

I like this pick less than the ones above and below, but +17500 for a major winner from just three years ago, who hasn't missed the cut at Augusta National since his 2014 debut is far too appealing to ignore. Fitzpatrick tied for 22nd in the Masters last year and finished T-10 the year prior.

We're basing this pick off of who Fitzpatrick has been in the past - and who he could be again. He enters Masters Week off of back-to-back missed cuts, and his best finish this year was a T-22 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I like the +120 odds for a top 40 finish."

Nick Taylor (+27500 BetRivers)
Alternate Masters pick: Top Canadian (+400 via BetMGM)

"The outright odds for Taylor in nearly all events are a slight to all Canadians.

Despite recording three PGA Tour wins in less than two years, Taylor is still being given just a 0.36% implied win probability. He enters the week 31st in the OWGR. Though he missed the cut in each of his past two events, he tied for ninth in The Genesis Invitational in addition to his victory in The Sentry to open the season. Both of those were Signature Events.

Taylor missed the cut in the Masters last year, in what was his first appearance at ANGC since 2020. Still, he plays his best golf when in contention on Sunday - with each of his last three victories coming via a playoff - and his putting stroke is among the best in the game when the pressure's on. His iron play has also been very strong this season."

**SBR Andy** · 04-08-25, 02:05 PM

Masters AI Predictions from ChatGPT:

Pick to Win: Xander Schauffele (+2200 DrafTKings)

Here's why the AI model is predicting Schauffele will win the 2025 Masters for his third major victory in the last four tournaments:

✅ Proven major competitor: Schauffele secured two major victories in 2024, demonstrating his ability to perform under pressure

✅ Course compatibility: His consistent ball-striking and strategic play align well with Augusta National's demands; he ranks seventh among qualified golfers with 1.09 strokes gained: approach across his last 20 measured rounds

✅ Renewed focus: After recovering from a ribs injury earlier this year, Schauffele has expressed a rejuvenated passion for the game, which could translate into strong performance as he comes off a T-12 finish in the Valspar Championship

AI confidence level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4.35% chance of winning per AI simulation)

Best Prop Bet: Robert MacIntyre to finish top 10 (+550 DraftKings)

✅ Course compatibility: Augusta National has historically favored left-handed golfers, and as a southpaw, MacIntyre's playing style aligns well with the course's design

✅ Recent performance: MacIntyre has shown promising form leading up to the Masters, including a ninth-place finish in The Players Championship, indicating he's in a competitive state

✅ Past success at Augusta: He has previously demonstrated his ability to navigate Augusta's challenges effectively with a T-12 finish in 2021 and a T-23 in 2022, bolstering confidence in his potential for a strong finish

Best Longshot to Win: Cameron Smith (+6000 DraftKings)

✅ Proven track record at Augusta: Smith has five top-10 finishes at the Masters, including a T-6 last year, demonstrating his ability to navigate the course effectively

✅ Major championship experience: As a past major winner, Smith possesses the experience and composure required to compete under the intense pressure of major tournaments

✅ Current form: Despite transitioning to LIV Golf, Smith has maintained a competitive edge, indicating readiness for high-level competition

**SBR Andy** · 04-09-25, 08:15 AM

Masters first round leader predictions from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Scottie Scheffler (+1200 BetMGM)

"It feels like malpractice - and a missed opportunity - not to have money on Scheffler heading into Round 1. Our Masters AI predictions and my Masters power rankings have him pegged for a top-5 finish as he seeks his third green jacket in four years. We can aim a little higher with these market-best +1200 odds from BetMGM for the first-round lead.

Scheffler ranks ninth on the PGA Tour for the 2025 season with a first-round scoring average of 68.83 through six tournaments. Nobody with multiple appearances in the Masters averages better than his 3.25 true strokes gained on the field per round at ANGC. He'll tee off at 10:15 a.m. ET in a group with Justin Thomas and Spanish amateur Jose Luis Ballester."

Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000 BetRivers)

"Hojgaard ranks 15th for the 2025 PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 69.17. He enters the week 82nd in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following three straight missed cuts, but he finished T-16 in his Masters debut last year, inspiring some hope.

He's averaging 0.43 strokes gained: approach across his last 20 measured rounds and is a strong putter. I'm most interested in his golfer-friendly 7:51 a.m. ET tee time for Thursday morning, as he'll be in the second group out alongside Kevin Yu and Jhonattan Vegas."

Zach Johnson (+20000 bet365)

"Let's get wild.

The 2007 Masters champion has just one top-10 finish at ANGC since (2015). However, he ranks 11th for the season with a Round 1 scoring average of 68.86 through seven events, he'll hit the course at 8:13 a.m. ET, and he's coming off a T-18 finish in the Valero Texas Open as his best result of the season to date.

By placing this bet early, we're hoping the wind picks up on Thursday and creates havoc for longer hitters playing their first round in the afternoon."

**SBR Andy** · 04-09-25, 02:11 PM

Masters parlay picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Top Player parlay:

Top LIV player: Bryson DeChambeau (+360)
➕ Top past champion: Jon Rahm (+360)
➕ Top debutant: Laurie Canter (+1000)
➕ Top amateur: Jose Luis Ballester (+200)
➕ Top senior: Phil Mickelson (-175)

Best parlay odds: +109629 via FanDuel ($10 pays $10,962.97)

Top Nationality parlay:

Top USA: Collin Morikawa (+1000)
➕ Top Canadian: Nick Taylor (+280)
➕ Top continental European: Viktor Hovland (+550)
➕ Top English: Laurie Canter (+900)
➕ Top Oceania: Cameron Smith (+260)
➕ Top Spanish: Jon Rahm (-230)
➕ Top UK and Ireland: Rory McIlroy (+130)

Best parlay odds: +3227696 via FanDuel ($10 pays $322,769.60)

Top Finishes parlay:

Rory McIlroy to win (+650)
➕ Top 5 finish: Collin Morikawa (+280)
➕ Top 10 finish: Bryson DeChambeau (+160)
➕ Top 20 finish: Viktor Hovland (+115)

Best parlay odds: +15831 via DraftKings ($10 pays $1,583.15)

**SBR Andy** · 04-09-25, 02:29 PM

Masters betting insights from BetMGM:

“Despite a down year by his own standards, Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite this weekend in Augusta but bettors are finding more value elsewhere. Rory, Ludvig Aberg, and Bryson are the worst results for the book and we wouldn’t mind Scottie getting his third green jacket.” – Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM

Tournament Winner

Line Movement (opening, current)
• Scottie Scheffler +500, +450
• Rory McIlroy +1200, +650
• Bryson DeChambeau +1400, +1600

Highest Ticket%
• Rory McIlroy 10.8%
• Scottie Scheffler 8.3%
• Bryson DeChambeau 7.9%

Highest Handle%
• Rory McIlroy 16.2%
• Scottie Scheffler 12.5%
• Bryson DeChambeau 8.7%

Biggest Liabilities
• Rory McIlroy
• Bryson DeChambeau
• Ludvig Aberg

First Round Leader

Highest Ticket%
• Scottie Scheffler 13.4%
• Rory McIlroy 9.5%
• Bryson DeChambeau 8.7%

Highest Handle%
• Scottie Scheffler 15.6%
• Bryson DeChambeau 10.5%
• Rory McIlroy 10.0%

Biggest Liabilities
• Scottie Scheffler
• Bryson DeChambeau
• Rory McIlroy

Placement

Most bet Top 5 (tickets)
• Rory McIlroy +130
• Collin Morikawa +260
• Hideki Matsuyama +600
• Bryson DeChambeau +333
• Ludvig Aberg +350

Most bet Top 10 (tickets)
• Collin Morikawa +125
• Ludvig Aberg +170
• Shane Lowry +300
• Bryson DeChambeau +160
• Hideki Matsuyama +275

Most bet Top 20 (tickets)
• Russell Henley +138
• Corey Conners +160
• Sepp Straka +160
• Sergio Garcia +200
• Shane Lowry +110

Most bet Top 40 (tickets)
• Lucas Glover -110
• J.J. Spaun -110
• Angel Cabrera +600
• Harris English +100
• Tom Hoge +138

Most bet Top LIV Player (tickets)
• Bryson DeChambeau +350
• Jon Rahm +350
• Joaquin Niemann +550
• Brooks Koepka +650
• Sergio Garcia +1200

The Cut

Most bet to make the cut (tickets)
• Justin Thomas -400
• Phil Mickelson -165
• Angel Cabrera +333
• Fred Couples +400
• Bernhard Langer +333

Most bet to miss the cut (tickets)
• Max Homa -155
• Danny Willet -135
• Dustin Johnson +110
• Jordan Spieth +250
• Rory McIlroy +550

**SBR Andy** · 04-09-25, 02:32 PM

Masters betting splits from DraftKings:

**ttwarrior1** · 04-09-25, 04:57 PM

good stuff

**SBR Andy** · 04-12-25, 09:48 AM

Masters betting insights going into Saturday from BetMGM:

Line Movement (opening, current)
• Rory McIlroy +1200, +360
• Bryson DeChambeau +1400, +360
• Scottie Scheffler +500, +400
• Justin Rose +10000, +900

Highest Ticket%
• Rory McIlroy 11.4%
• Bryson DeChambeau 8.8%
• Scottie Scheffler 8.5%

Highest Handle%
• Rory McIlroy 17.7%
• Scottie Scheffler 13.4%
• Bryson DeChambeau 10.0%

Biggest Liabilities
• Rory McIlroy
• Bryson DeChambeau
• Ludvig Aberg