Should I hedge out on Atlanta Falcons ML

**tto827** · 10-06-13, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

Except that this is a losing proposition long-term.... nothing about hedging is a good investment strategy. It's a short-term reward strategy.

Not true if the side you hedge with is actually the +EV side. But in theory yes, hedging is just giving extra vig back to the book.

**slacker00** · 10-06-13, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by tto827

Not true if the side you hedge with is actually the +EV side. But in theory yes, hedging is just giving extra vig back to the book.

Not only that, it's guaranteed vig, the book is getting vig going both ways with no risk. It's giving charity to the book.

**Slimpickens** · 10-06-13, 10:46 AM

I was actually in this situation last Sunday night for a big score with the Falcons ML the last leg of several parlays. Glad I hedged on the Pats +3.5. Odviously different situation here but with the way the falcons offense looked last week Id definetly take the 10.5 points and try to win both.

**R.P. McMurphy** · 10-06-13, 10:59 AM

Like I said not a fan of hedging here but if you don't wanna take even slightest risk of lighting striking. Then as someone mentioned on page 1 Jets Ml at ov +400 for what you have riding or maybe even slightly less. Is the only way to go. Would not try for a middle here at -110 and waiting till tomorrow if you hedge probably not a bad idea. Every loser and his brother will be chasing with Atl on Mnf.

**Canuckdave** · 10-06-13, 07:37 PM

I have a few bets coming down to Atlanta -2.5. Already broke even for the day and it will be all profit if Atlanta covers that 2.5. I can hedge and make a guaranteed profit but think i'm gonna let it ride. They should win at home by at least a FG.

**BMoreBird** · 10-06-13, 07:39 PM

let it ride

**KingJD31** · 10-06-13, 07:43 PM

Fatboy you said you havebetween 250-300 on the gm which means you have lakerboy units on it, you bet air chubs. Whodoesn't know what they bet?

Originally posted by bubblebuttluv

wtf are you talking about guy?

I said I had between $250-300 dollars on Falcons moneyline.

Does this not compute?

I hadn't gone back and looked at my 5Dimes ticket so I didn't know the exact amount.

I DIDN'T KNOW IT WAS YOUR MONEY, SO WHY WORRY ABOUT A SPECIFIC DOLLAR AND CENT AMOUNT?

Here hold on....

....

I have exactly $246 on Falcons moneyline.

You satisfied?

**beringeyy** · 10-06-13, 07:47 PM

99% Atlanta will win... not worth to hedge.

**marley33** · 10-06-13, 07:47 PM

Leave it alone You're Good. ATL Rolls

**MoneyLineDawg** · 10-06-13, 07:51 PM

Jets are not that good at all but they aren't the Jaguars people......Their Defense keeps them in every game as long as the offense doesn't turn the ball over too much (Which is very possible, but even so)

ATL is obviously very likely to win straight up but it isn't that crazy if they don't, their defense is missing a lot of guys, Steven Jackson out and Roddy White on one leg

Atlanta is also 1-3.....A few tough losses, and they are better than their record indicates but it's not exactly David vs. Goliath like everyone is making it out to be

**pavyracer** · 10-06-13, 07:52 PM

No hedge. Actually add more money on Atlanta ML for an even bigger payout.

**Grits n' Gravy** · 10-06-13, 07:56 PM

if you are going to hedge put a little on jets + points and hope for middle.

**Pivotpoint** · 10-06-13, 08:40 PM

I have (2) seven team teasers with last leg Falcons - 3. They are down to (2) six teamers due to push on Titans +9. Guy shanks a 30 yd fg with 2 seconds for the cover. wtf.

Anyway, that's my deal.

1X exposed for 4.5X return

Looked back in my book and noticed that Falcoons were the last leg on two 7 teamers, last week. Wow.

Falcons did me dirty that night. Had them +4 , lost by 7 to Pats.

Defense looked shaky, But Geno is no Brady and my gut says he should struggle on the road, in the dome.

Falcons real desperate here. Jets D is decent. Samuel should be back and Julio looks good to go.

I think the Falcons win by 10, wouldn't be betting strong @ 9 1/2.

I'm not hedging.

Would like ML more than laying 3.

Comes down to good size swing of $550 or lose $100.

I like my chances and happy I have a nice leveraged play to my advantage. (ATL -3 teased), and I don't have to risk any roll on a risky close to double digit #.

Could hedge $ 200, but that's no fun. I'm always looking to punish the book.

Nothing has changed with my opinion on this game since I bet. Pretty sure I'd be laying the 9 1/2 if I didn't have exposure.

Will roll the dice all day long on Atl -3, leveraged. Hope to get nice, watch game and cash.

BOL with your choice.

**cpay** · 10-06-13, 08:41 PM

nope don hedge eaSY MONEY

**jjgold** · 10-06-13, 10:44 PM

Taking Atlanta on the Moneyline could be an all in place for Manny I am thinking about making a big bet the Jets have no chance to win this game

**OTL** · 10-06-13, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Taking Atlanta on the Moneyline could be an all in place for Manny I am thinking about making a big bet the Jets have no chance to win this game

At close to -500 odds what is the point? All it takes is Geno Smith not playing like a complete retard, or Matt Ryan going down to injury to send all your money down the toilet. Falcons are not a team that can be trusted right now.

**pavyracer** · 10-07-13, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by OTL

At close to -500 odds what is the point? All it takes is Geno Smith not playing like a complete retard, or Matt Ryan going down to injury to send all your money down the toilet. Falcons are not a team that can be trusted right now.

Actually Matt Ryan's back up is much better than Geno Smith. This won't be an issue.

**KingJD31** · 10-07-13, 09:59 AM

Lol no. You saw what coples and Wilkerson did to jake locker? This ttime Sheldon Richardson will paralyze ryan guarantee

Originally posted by pavyracer

Actually Matt Ryan's back up is much better than Geno Smith. This won't be an issue.

**KingJD31** · 10-07-13, 10:01 AM

Nobody isimpressed by a 1-3 team sorry

**tyloxx420** · 10-07-13, 11:12 AM

Jets are a bad 2-2 team, they lucked out with a Bucs penalty and Holmes ripped a long TD against the Bills (No Holmes this game to save Geno).. Jets hurt lockers leg??.. They still lost 38-13 against the Titans. so that comment is now pointless.

Geno has never played in a Dome, which will not be easy for him. Jets are 0-2 on the Road, Atlanta has also played better Opponents than the jets have this season. Did i mention Holmes is out? Winslow Questionable and Hill returning after a concussion..

Also expect a little surprise from Roddy White, he played 96% of the snaps last week. Which tells me that foot is about ready to roll and why not fly under the radar until game time.

Between the Dome Noise, no Holmes and Atlanta's Offense.. I just do not see the Jets coming close to Winning this game to ruin your parlay.

Do not Hedge, collect all of your winnings from the parlay and sleep like Amy Winehouse for the night!!

24-10

**easyliving** · 10-07-13, 11:15 AM

Decided to let it ride, Hopefully I don't regret it. Will be a big boost to my BR if this hits.

**KingJD31** · 10-07-13, 11:30 AM

So by your logic the pats lucked out against the jets with all the penalties

Originally posted by tyloxx420

Jets are a bad 2-2 team, they lucked out with a Bucs penalty and Holmes ripped a long TD against the Bills (No Holmes this game to save Geno).. Jets hurt lockers leg??.. They still lost 38-13 against the Titans. so that comment is now pointless.

Geno has never played in a Dome, which will not be easy for him. Jets are 0-2 on the Road, Atlanta has also played better Opponents than the jets have this season. Did i mention Holmes is out? Winslow Questionable and Hill returning after a concussion..

Also expect a little surprise from Roddy White, he played 96% of the snaps last week. Which tells me that foot is about ready to roll and why not fly under the radar until game time.

Between the Dome Noise, no Holmes and Atlanta's Offense.. I just do not see the Jets coming close to Winning this game to ruin your parlay.

Do not Hedge, collect all of your winnings from the parlay and sleep like Amy Winehouse for the night!!

24-10

**Minnesota Niice** · 10-07-13, 11:31 AM

How much $ will you win easy living?

**Fed_42420** · 10-07-13, 11:37 AM

there is never anything wrong with guaranteeing yourself some money, but its always more fun to let it ride. I'd go for it

**KingJD31** · 10-07-13, 11:37 AM

Wait no it qas the bills gm jets had 20penalties and they still won, how the fuk is thay lucky if anything shows how much better they are then the bills

**pavyracer** · 10-07-13, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by KingJD31

Lol no. You saw what coples and Wilkerson did to jake locker? This ttime Sheldon Richardson will paralyze ryan guarantee

Do you even know who Matt Ryan's back up is? He is a faster and more accurate passer version of Geno Smith.

**easyliving** · 10-07-13, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Minnesota Niice

How much $ will you win easy living?

got over 3k risked on 2 seperate books in 4 parlays

**KingJD31** · 10-07-13, 12:08 PM

Yeah never fukin heard of there backup

Originally posted by pavyracer

Do you even know who Matt Ryan's back up is? He is a faster and more accurate passer version of Geno Smith.

**pavyracer** · 10-07-13, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by KingJD31

Yeah never fukin heard of there backup

**KingJD31** · 10-07-13, 12:16 PM

Whatare you going based he's more accurate?

Originally posted by pavyracer

**pavyracer** · 10-07-13, 12:21 PM

I have seen him on training camp this summer.

**KingJD31** · 10-07-13, 12:31 PM

Oh ok then it's settled

**tyloxx420** · 10-07-13, 01:12 PM

KingJD you are obviously a homer, which is fine. I am too, but I have accepted the fact that our offense blows chunks and so should you. The Jets will not win this game unless the Jets Defense some how gets 2 Pick-6's and another 2 turnovers. This game is on the road and in the dome against a better overall team.

It is just not going to happen. Put your money on ATL (at least this way you will not be upset and broke, just upset)

**easyliving** · 10-07-13, 07:51 PM

not the start I had in mind, already on my 2nd beer

**Pivotpoint** · 10-07-13, 07:55 PM

Jets kicking field goals won't win this.

2nd beer? Better pick up the pace.