Run Lines=Sucker Bets

[BigBollocks]

Bottom line is don't bet baseball...wait for football season

Great insight as usual. One has to love how you waste everyone's time with your useless no-nothing bullshit in every thread. And as if being ignorant combined with aggressive wasn't enough, you manage to kill every thread with your negativity. Life's better without ignorant loser ****s like you....

[RickySteve]

Great insight as usual. One has to love how you waste everyone's time with your useless no-nothing bullshit in every thread. And as if being ignorant combined with aggressive wasn't enough, you manage to kill every thread with your negativity. Life's better without ignorant loser ****s like you....

Irony rules.

[BigBollocks]

Irony rules.

Lol Steve, I can see where you're coming from and would think the same thing from a distance. It's a no-win situation...let a jerkoff go along his merry way with continual one-line cheap shots, or finally take on the class jerkoff thus making the both of you look like assholes. Perhaps I should have gone with option one....

[raiders72002]

You have to take the total, ML and H team,away team to make a proper RL chart. Ask Dead Money for his database.

Here's another article by Iskoe but it's still too generic.

Major League Baseball Run Line Data - 2005 Season

by Andrew Iskoe of www.thelogicalapproach.com

The following is a study of how frequently Major League Baseball teams win by exactly one run and by more than one run, thus giving the reader an idea as to how to approach the taking or laying of the run and a half in baseball wagering.

Before getting to the data itself please be aware that I do not track run line results per se. That is, I have not charted the plus 1 1/2 or minus 1 1/2 by price range, team, league etc.

Rather, I use the following results as a guide and then interpolate the data in determining whether I wish to make a run line play or not.

What I mean by this is that in the case of small favorites or pick 'em type games it could be either the road team or the home team that is made to lay the run and a half. In other words, in a game that opens as a pick em (or in which one side is made less than a - 110 favorite such as a -107/-103 split) there are times when the road team may lay the run and a half and other times when the home team may lay the run and a half.

In order to have more realistic data to use I have followed the following format in accumulating the data --

1 -- I have used the CLOSING line from the Stardust Race & Sports Book

2 -- I have only included in my study games in which the closing line had one team favored by MORE THAN minus 110. In virtually all cases this team would be the team laying the run and a half.

3 -- I have charted the results very simplistically, by Home Favorite and Road Favorite, regardless of whether the favored team was minus 115 or minus 220. It would be too time consuming to do a further breakdown which I am sure would prove useful -- I have done such a breakdown in the past for clients who have paid me for the research but I am not able to do that work gratis at this time.

4 -- I have broken out the results in four distinct but revealing categories --

(a) Favorites that won by 2 runs or more

(b) Favorites that won by EXACTLY 1 run

(c) Favorites that lost by EXACTLY 1 run

(d) Favorites that lost by 2 runs or more

Note the importance/unimportance of the four categories, as follows.

I have long maintained that I prefer to lay the run and a half and "convert" in many cases a straight play Favorite into an Underdog (i.e. instead of laying - 150 to just win the game I will take + 140 to win by 2 runs or more.

Likewise, I have long advocated that it is better to take an Underdog just to win the game straight up and to not take the plus run and a half. In many cases you would turn an Underdog into a Favorite by instead of playing a team at + 125 to win straight up you now must lay, say, - 140 and get the plus run and a half.

Note that THE ONLY TIME the run and a half comes into play is when the FAVORITE LOSES BY EXACTLY 1 RUN!

In all other instances you are better off laying the run and a half with the Favorite or playing the Underdog straight up.

To illustrate --

Let's say we have a Home Favorite of - 150. That Favorite will be around + 135 to lay the run and a half, The Underdog in that game will be + 140 to win straight up and about - 155 if getting the run and a half.

Consider the 4 scenarios listed above --

(a) Favorite wins by 2 runs or more -- Straight bettor lays 150 and wins 100. Favorite Run Line bettor lays 100 and wins 135. Underdog straight bettor lays 100 and loses 100. Underdog run line bettor lays 155 and loses 155.

(b) Favorite wins by exactly 1 run -- Straight bettor lays 150 and wins 100. Favorite Run Line bettor lays 100 and loses 100. Underdog straight bettor lays 100 and loses 100. Underdog run line bettor lays 155 and wins 100.

(c) Favorite loses by exactly 1 run -- Straight bettor lays 150 and loses 150. Favorite Run Line bettor lays 100 and loses 100. Underdog straight bettor lays 100 and wins 140. Underdog run line bettor lays 155 and wins 100.

(d) Favorite loses by 2 runs or more -- Straight bettor lays 150 and loses 150. Favorite Run Line bettor lays 100 and loses 100. Underdog straight bettor lays 100 and wins 140. Underdog run line bettor lays 155 and wins 100.

Note that for a typical Road Favorite of - 150 the Favorite would likely be around + 105 for the minus run and a half while the Home Underdog of + 140 would likely lay around - 125 for plus the run and a half.

With that in mind here is the data thus far for the 2005 season -

Data Current through Monday, July 18, 2005 Home Favorites of more than

-110 (869)
Road Favorites of more than

-110 (355)
ALL Favorites of more than

-110 (1224)
# Pct. # Pct. # Pct.
Win by 2 Runs or More 376 43.3 % 147 41.4 % 523 42.7 %
Win by Exactly 1 Run 155 17.8 % 43 12.1 % 198 16.2 %
Lose by Exactly 1 Run 87 10.0 % 66 18.6 % 153 12.5 %
Lose by 2 Runs or More 251 28.9 % 99 27.9 % 350 28.6 %

Analysis of Home Favorites of more than - 110 (869 games)

Percentages reflect the percent of all games resulting in the given decision, i.e., in 43.3 % of games in which the Home Team was Favored by more than minus 110, that team won by at least 2 runs.

By adding the percentages together we can see that 27.8 % of these games were decided by exactly 1 run and that 72.2 % of these games were decided by 2 or more runs.

As shown above, the ONLY situation in which the PLUS A RUN AND A HALF works to the advantage of the bettor is in Scenario (b) -- when the Favored team wins by EXACTLY 1 run -- this occurs just 17.8 % of the time for Home Favorites -- or 2 games in 11. This is, of course, the lone situation in which laying the run and a half works to the disadvantage of the Favorite bettor.

Looked at another way, slightly more than one third of all games decided by exactly 1 run are won by the ROAD UNDERDOG when the Home Team is favored by more than minus 110.

Analysis of Road Favorites of more than - 110 (355 games)

The percentages reflect the percent of all games resulting in the given decision, i.e., in 41.4 % of games in which the Road Team was Favored by more than minus 110, that team won by at least 2 runs.

By adding the percentages together we can see that 30.7 % of these games were decided by exactly 1 run and that 69.3 % of these games were decided by 2 or more runs.

As shown above, the ONLY situation in which the PLUS A RUN AND A HALF works to the advantage of the bettor is in Scenario (b) -- when the Favored team wins by EXACTLY 1 run -- this occurs just 12.1 % of the time for Road Favorites -- or 1 game in 8. This is, of course, the lone situation in which laying the run and a half works to the disadvantage of the Favorite bettor.

Looked at another way, slightly more than two fifths of all games decided by exactly 1 run are won by the HOME UNDERDOG when the Road team is favored by more than minus 110.

[Ganchrow]

You have to take the total, ML and H team,away team to make a proper RL chart.

Yes. As we've discussed many time before.

Here's another article by Iskoe but it's still too generic.

This is the same article posted earlier only with a few rephrasings.

[degenaMATT]

heres a guy who bets LOTS of MLB run lines
wins at a sick pace
and puts all the proof in the pudding

URL edited out

run lines in MLB are good bets and stuff like this is simply not discountable

[GoIrish682]

very interesting post...i loike the line aboutlosing sharp than winning stupid