Does anyone have any tips or secrets they use to anticipate line moves? It seems like I've been getting beat each week getting that half point that I highly value. It seems like the line moves against every side I like before I can get it, whether I'm betting a favorite or a dog. Games I like that open at -7 and I think will go to -6.5 (where I want it), instead move to -7.5 (where I won't play it). I don't like waiting until gameday to make my plays because that's when things get crazy and unpredictable. I'm just trying to get a better feel for anticipating line moves so that I can get the side I want at the number I want. Does anybody have any tips or advice for me here? As always, any help is appreciated.
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One thing that moves lines is late breaking news, such as injury reports. I notice the Eagles-Giants line is very uncertain right now, and could jump one way or another depending on the status of McNabb. I'm betting McNabb doesn't play next week, personally.Comment -
I know WHAT moves a line, I just don't know WHEN to expect the line to move, especially when deciding which way the opening lines are going to move. That's what's killing me right now because it seems like I never guess right. I think the 3 is going to go to 3.5 and it goes to 2.5. I think the 7 will go to 6.5 and it goes to 7.5. That half point off of 3 or 7 can make what was a very attractive wager look very unattractive. I'm having a good season so far, but this is one area of my handicapping that I need to improve. Any other help or advice?Originally posted by slacker00Comment -
It sounds like you are really shopping hard for the right lines. Is there such a thing as a service where you can set the lines that you want, and if they become available you can automatically place a predetermined bet at that value? It looks like Matchbook might support such a service, but I'm fiddling with it right now and can't quite figure it out.Comment -
Pinnacle has a Wager Order form too. Where you can request a line and price and wait to see if its accepted. Ive never used it , but it sounds like something you may want to look at.Comment -
We post a ton of predicted line moves at TFZ1
This was posted for Sun 11/20 NFL games
We also post NBA leads daily when openers come out and you would be surprised on how much the line moves in our favor.Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2005 3:41 pm Post subject: TFZ Sun 11/20 I predict some significant line moves this week especially with Car.
Car -2.5 to -3.5 which is huge
Jax 4 to 6
Indy 4.5 to 6
Wash 6 to 6.5 may even see some 7s
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This line has already hit 36 and will reach the key number 37.Over 34 Cle -129. I'm also on this. Best price I could find buying it to 34 is -129. I think this line will go up and wouldn't surprise me if it hits key number 37.Comment -
senator, great question...a lot of it is feel...I also use the different books I play with to tip me off either by the juice (in Pinnacle's case) or earlier line moves than most (with Cris)...did this last night where I saw Ohio St. had moved to -3 at Cris, so I grabbed Ohio St. -2.5 (-111) at pinnacle right then...Comment -
I have had this discussioin with another venerable poster on here on many occasions...as a line movement theorist like myself I watch the lines very very carefully and have a few comments.
The one thing I can say Senator is that you are never going to be right everytime in forecasting line movement. Really if you can predict line movement correctly around 54-58% of the time you'll be in good shape.
Unless you are working on the inside or know an insider (i.e. a guy who makes lines...maybe we can use moneylinemaker here
) it's going to be hard. It probably takes more practice and experience than anything else.
Generally the line will move in the direction of favorites...so for example Iowa opened up as -4 then went -4.5 and i expect it to climb to -5.5 by game time. I would say about 65-75% of the time it moves this way. Overs follow a similar pattern as well especially for prime time games when there are no other games on (i.e. Louisville/Rutgers Friday night NCAAF Big East Degenerate game) Since that game is on TV and the only one on you can expect it to get heavy action...you can make some prediction here with some confidence.
This summer I'll be presenting a lot of line movement theory stuff on the forum when i get a chance to write it so stay tuned as I'll be hoping for feedback from you and other members.Comment -
Good stuff BB, I agree with most everything, usually bet dogs closer to game time, but again, that's just in general, as there will be exceptions.Originally posted by BuddyBearI have had this discussioin with another venerable poster on here on many occasions...as a line movement theorist like myself I watch the lines very very carefully and have a few comments.
The one thing I can say Senator is that you are never going to be right everytime in forecasting line movement. Really if you can predict line movement correctly around 54-58% of the time you'll be in good shape.
Unless you are working on the inside or know an insider (i.e. a guy who makes lines...maybe we can use moneylinemaker here) it's going to be hard. It probably takes more practice and experience than anything else.
Generally the line will move in the direction of favorites...so for example Iowa opened up as -4 then went -4.5 and i expect it to climb to -5.5 by game time. I would say about 65-75% of the time it moves this way. Overs follow a similar pattern as well especially for prime time games when there are no other games on (i.e. Louisville/Rutgers Friday night NCAAF Big East Degenerate game) Since that game is on TV and the only one on you can expect it to get heavy action...you can make some prediction here with some confidence.
This summer I'll be presenting a lot of line movement theory stuff on the forum when i get a chance to write it so stay tuned as I'll be hoping for feedback from you and other members.Comment -
I know the rule of thumb is to bet favorites and overs early in the week and underdogs and unders late in the week. It just seems like I've been getting burned the last few weeks whether I'm betting favs or dogs and I was just curious if anyone has anything special they do.
I look forward to seeing your theories BB!Comment -
excellent stuff BB, I agree that you must trust your instincts and not get greedy...key numbers I look for, like last week I got Boise +8.5 (+101) and it went to 10...I was a little pissed, but then I saw the line closed down at 7...of course, the bet lost, but your gut will be right more often than wrong...Comment
