Theory guided discussion on forum vs. non-forum posters

**bigboydan** · 11-11-05, 12:49 PM

double B, i guess that depends on what type of non-posters you know. i do know alot of non-posters that are extremely sharp cappers.

**Senator7** · 11-11-05, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

What the gaming forum scene should ultimately do is provide insights on system and strategies, sportsbook discussions, general discussion on games, potential research angles, injury info, advice on money managment, line shopping discussions....pretty much the things that get overlooked the most.

This is the biggest advantage in visiting and posting in a forum like SBR. A beginning sportsbettor coming to this site would learn very quickly elements of sportsbetting that some of us have lost a lot of money learning over the years. I've said this before, but every male in America thinks they are experts at three things: sex, poker, and football. Their ego prevents them from visiting a forum like this where they could get an advantage or learn something that takes the average bettor a lot of lost money to finally figure out.

I am not afraid to admit that I have learned many things from my fellow posters here. The reason I post on this forum is to expand my knowledge as best I can. I am one of those people that is not satisfied being good at something, I have to be great before I am happy. It is this drive that leads me to this forum to post and learn from the other great minds that "reside" here. Yet, on the flip side of this drive is the realization that I'm not the best sportsbettor in the world and that there is always room for improvement. I am a very capable sportsbettor, but by no means am I an expert. I can tell by the personalities on this forum that I am not the only poster here with that drive and belief. I would argue that most of the people here are here because they share these same characteristics.

I talk to my buddies who bet on sports and they ridicule me for visiting a sportsbetting forum. What is there to learn or discuss they wonder? That's why I think its so funny that they now always ask me who I'm playing each weekend.

To the average sportsbettor, the thought of coming to this forum is a waste of time. Their ego makes them believe they know all they need to know and there's no one here that is better than them and no one here that could teach them anything. This belief is why more people lose at sportsbetting than win. Most of the posters here do not have this belief and are here to learn as much as they can from each other to become the best sportsbettor they can.

**natrass** · 11-11-05, 02:07 PM

Always open to learn and all that ... but, to be fair, while you can improve some margins and stuff ... its still about picking winners.

Sometimes we could spend longer trying to spot lines, debate the industry, etc more than the fundamental business of picking winners.

So, for me, I would have to say I look on the forum as a source of interest and amusement. Rather than as a source of some kind of intellectual gamblers university.

That said, I remember someone (I think it was TOW or bigboy ... as I said, the avators confuse me now) starting a thread on peoples own gambling rules which was actually extremely helpful but that was a while ago.

Now, I read it mainly to see what the books are up to, who has been stiffed recently, etc. And I like the chat, its interesting.

Sometimes, deep down, I am convinced this whole betting thing is very, very simple. I know football (soccer) I think and do well enough but sometimes I do think I get too wrapped up in finding value, chasing lines, etc instead of keeping it easy and "I think this is very likely to happen and the odds are good" end of story.

But, that said ... forums are good for bonus whoring, team news, etc.

**raiders72001** · 11-11-05, 02:23 PM

I disagree 100%. All you have to do is ask Dan and onlooker(two TFZ members) the % of winners that we put up at TFZ.

**natrass** · 11-11-05, 02:33 PM

What, you pick soccer teams?

**tacomax** · 11-11-05, 02:42 PM

I think he picks up guys - TFZ stands for The Fag Zone.

**raiders72001** · 11-11-05, 03:22 PM

Sun- BrokeN 3-1. MJ 1-0 Und Lakers. Space 1-0 Butler. Rooster 4-1 Football. We started the RR team picks 2/10/03. In the first 5 weeks we had a total of 3 losing days.

All you have to do is go to the RX RR or OGD to find out how we have done the last 3 years.

That quote was taken from the RX.

**raiders72001** · 11-11-05, 03:33 PM

What, you pick soccer teams?

We use to have a great guy for soccer named chriscol. He was very good at soccer and German hockey.

I try and recruit people for all sports. Sea may be the best golf guy on the forums. Earlyspeed was outr horse guy. I'm still trying to recruit the old group along with new blood. Forums can be very profitable if you have the right people. We also post fades.

**Max Levine** · 11-11-05, 07:47 PM

Natrass said it best: in the end, it is about picking winners. But learning the particularities of gambling, line movement, expected return is the advantage of a forum addict.

I enjoy SBR message board for the diversity of posts, from Ganchrow's mathematical explanation to Pags personal experiences with books. And I still enjoy reading one's opinion on a specific play. It's like being at the pub and trying to figure out what's going to happen in the next game, with relevant statistics and links to more info. Everybody's opinion is worth reading for me as a gambler, looking at every possible angle; the more I know, the better are my chances.

A poster might not necessarily pick winners at a 60% rate but he sure is better informed and, therefore, should have an edge over a non-poster.

Of course, I am not talking about those strange posts you find in other forums: the 'I have inside info' and 'my professional gambler of a cousin put 50K on the over' type of posts. Although humor helps to forget about gambling

Max

**raiders72001** · 11-11-05, 11:29 PM

This is the reason why forum posters are great to have and why they should get together to share information. This is what happenend at my site.

----------------------------
BMO:
Perfect example of why you need to play best #'s, and what I'm trying to accomplish.

So far today..we've hit 2 middles..Utah game lands 183, and spurs game lands 185. We missed another one by 1 basket in the Pacer game.

But all the people that were betting over Spurs today at 186 can't be happy. As well as under bettors on the utah game.

I love it when a plan comes together !

**pags11** · 11-12-05, 03:07 AM

what I like about this forum (and hopefully this is relavent) is that I learn a lot from many people on here about the online sportsbook industry and in turn try to share my knowledge on handicapping...

**JoshW** · 11-12-05, 08:04 AM

More likely to find posters with a clue vs non posters because anything you say here can be critically evaluated by other posters who do have a clue. Internet in general forces people to a higher standard. That said, most posters don't have enough of an edge to overcome the juice, but a greater percentage do than the non-forum gambline community at large.

**kdmfox** · 11-12-05, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

This is the reason why forum posters are great to have and why they should get together to share information. This is what happenend at my site.

----------------------------
BMO:
Perfect example of why you need to play best #'s, and what I'm trying to accomplish.

So far today..we've hit 2 middles..Utah game lands 183, and spurs game lands 185. We missed another one by 1 basket in the Pacer game.

But all the people that were betting over Spurs today at 186 can't be happy. As well as under bettors on the utah game.

I love it when a plan comes together !

You mean you love it when you get lucky.

**raiders72001** · 11-12-05, 09:32 AM

If it's luck then fine but gambling deals with a lot of mathematics and the odds were with those middles. By the way, those picks were not mine.

**Brick Tamland** · 11-14-05, 11:09 AM

The forum keeps me in the right frame of mond instead of making dumb wagers for "fun".

**raiders72001** · 11-14-05, 04:38 PM

I don't know how you can beat forum information. If anyone watched the Bears game Sunday you saw that the Bears game was the windiest day in NFL history. This is what we wrote and it was a nice under for those that saw it.

Posted overnight

very windy in Chicago

We also posted it again in the morning before the game.

**onlooker** · 11-14-05, 04:39 PM

That wind made my 49ers +13 golden.

**raiders72001** · 11-14-05, 04:41 PM

That was nice. I couldn't believe that return of the field goal at the end of the first half.

**onlooker** · 11-14-05, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

That was nice. I couldn't believe that return of the field goal at the end of the first half.

Me either, that was the play that almost blew that +13. But the FG battle continued in the 2nd half.

**raiders72001** · 11-14-05, 04:51 PM

I only saw one pass from SF the whole first half. I didn't check the stats out but it was low whatever it was.

**raiders72001** · 11-14-05, 04:52 PM

That first FG by the Bears was unreal. He kicked it true and then it blew all the way to the sideline.

**raiders72001** · 11-14-05, 04:55 PM

This is what EBone from SBR wrote in the SBR promo section.
----------------
"SBR Forum Folks,

No matter what the majority opinion of Raiders is on this board....his TFZ board has some fantastic information on it. These guys are doing everything they can to get an advantage on the bookmakers and sharing the information.

This is a good forum in my opinion. Keep up the good work, raiders......"
-----------------------

Forum info is of great help.

**onlooker** · 11-14-05, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

That first FG by the Bears was unreal. He kicked it true and then it blew all the way to the sideline.

I dont think I ever seen a ball take a hard right like that one did. That was just nuts.

**marc** · 11-14-05, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by lakerfan

More likely to find posters with a clue vs non posters because anything you say here can be critically evaluated by other posters who do have a clue. Internet in general forces people to a higher standard. That said, most posters don't have enough of an edge to overcome the juice, but a greater percentage do than the non-forum gambline community at large.

Just to add to this, when you post your picks, the next day everyone will knwo whetehr you were right or wrong. So those posters who have a low percentage of correct picks, will either have to improve their capping ability, or they will be laughed off the boards. So it's not so much that the average poster is smarter than the average non poster. it's more like we leave the posting of picks to the sharper posters.

**BuddyBear** · 11-14-05, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I don't know how you can beat forum information. If anyone watched the Bears game Sunday you saw that the Bears game was the windiest day in NFL history. This is what we wrote and it was a nice under for those that saw it.

Posted overnight
We also posted it again in the morning before the game.

I would argue that the under yesterday was more a function of the teams than the weather. The Niners just can't score for the life of them. The Bears are struggling too offensively but seem slightly better.

As of now going into their 10th game...i see the Bears as a good fade team starting with Carolina.

**onlooker** · 11-14-05, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

I would argue that the under yesterday was more a function of the teams than the weather. The Niners just can't score for the life of them. The Bears are struggling too offensively but seem slightly better.

As of now going into their 10th game...i see the Bears as a good fade team starting with Carolina.

I agree both teams are having a hard time. But with that wind Im sure it was a pain in the ass to throw the ball deep or even on short outs. So they were both pretty much left with running the ball and the defenses knew it.

**onlooker** · 11-14-05, 05:21 PM

49ers Passing yards = 28 (Pickett 1 for 13)
Bears Passing yards = 67 (Orton 8 for 13)

So there we see they didnt pass much.

**BuddyBear** · 11-14-05, 05:24 PM

I like the way this thread has developed...i think the general consensus is that forums provide valuable information on an assortment of gaming related topics and games themeslves but forums provide no decided long term advantage in terms of picking winners. Individuals become better cappers from what they learn; you can't just coatail someone and expect to be a winner in this.

That's my take.

**raiders72001** · 11-14-05, 06:11 PM

but forums provide no decided long term advantage in terms of picking winners.

I strongly disagree. We went a five week period where we only had 3 losing days if you add up our cumulative plays. All plays are posted. I can look up the threads with each days picks if you would like.

**BuddyBear** · 11-15-05, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I strongly disagree. We went a five week period where we only had 3 losing days if you add up our cumulative plays. All plays are posted. I can look up the threads with each days picks if you would like.

I don't disagree with your record Raiders but finding that special poster is like trying to find a needle in a haystack if you are going to coatail a poster's picks. Moreover, most posters don't put their record up, most don't post every play, and the goals of the posters are usually different.

All I am saying is forums are not the right place to be looking to find picks...forums are the right place to be looking on how to make good picks.

**JoshW** · 11-15-05, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

I don't disagree with your record Raiders but finding that special poster is like trying to find a needle in a haystack if you are going to coatail a poster's picks. Moreover, most posters don't put their record up, most don't post every play, and the goals of the posters are usually different.

All I am saying is forums are not the right place to be looking to find picks...forums are the right place to be looking on how to make good picks.

Buddy Bear, I think you are on the right track. There are some guys who post with records and more importantly they are using sound backing to make their picks but unless you have been around the forums a long time is tough to find, and they likely represent 1% of forum players maybe less. Raiders is pretty good about finding guys like that, but they exist at times on lots of different forums at different times. The guys that are the real deal rarely keep posting because why spoil any edge they have. In general, I think you are right to try to find info on the process as just opposed to picks without a clear basis.