Using historical records

[Shawn01]

How helpful are historical records in an NFL that is steeped in parity now? With all of the roster turnover these days and with teams being more equal than they may have ever been before, how helpful is the historical record?

I saw a long list that gave the history of the Redskins and Eagles yesterday afternoon. It showed their records on Sunday nights, when favored by various point spreads, when not favored by various point spreads, road and home, and on and on. It made me wonder how predictable teams can be when rosters for a lot of them are largely different now than as recently as 2-3 years ago. The Browns and Titans, who played each other yesterday, have vastly different rosters, as but two examples. Some rosters stay more constant than others (Patriots, Steelers) but many do not.

I wonder if who the team's head coach is would be a more accurate determining factor in how a team plays because teams often play under a system their coach sets. Any thoughts?

[Mudcat]

I saw a long list that gave the history of the Redskins and Eagles yesterday afternoon. It showed their records on Sunday nights, when favored by various point spreads, when not favored by various point spreads, road and home, and on and on.

Looking at those kind of things is completely pointless IMO (other than perhaps providing a false, temporary sense of justification/comfort for putting money at risk).

The truth is that most "cappers" are basically flipping a coin for their picks and slowly getting eaten up by juice. They don't realize or want to admit it, but that's what they're doing. That's why almost all bettors lose in the long run.

Looking at these contrived trends that stretch out over years lets people feel like they're doing more than just flipping a coin. But it's all a mind game. The worst part is that, if their pick wins, instead of saying, "Big deal, a coin flip might have given me the right pick too," they will focus even more on phantom stats.

For any stat to be significant, it must cover hundreds of samples. Any time someone starts looking at some stat that is 7-2 for the last 9 meetings over the last 6 years (or whatever) they are just playing with themselves.

[bigboydan]

well, i factor in trends based on 5 years or less at times. but,you can't bet a game based on strictly a trend. you need to find alot more than just a trend when your putting your $$$$$ on a game.