Low lines and dropping lines on huge public plays today

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  • ThaWoj
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-09-10
    • 6752

    #1
    Low lines and dropping lines on huge public plays today
    Detroit down to -7 and -360. Not sure what it was all week but last night it was 7.5 and -385. 93% of the public on the ml and 80% on the spread (according to DK). No injuries that I'm aware of. Detroit is "America's team" when it comes to betting. Line should be -9.5. Not touching this.

    Also CMC anytime td is -140. I wrote something in Chuckys post but this dude was never this low last year and while he's been out this year jordan mason was always around -200. With Purdy out SF should rely on the run even more. Fading that for sure, books are begging you to use in a parlay or those td boosts.
  • str
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-12-09
    • 11641

    #2
    The preseason line on that game was Detroit -2. With favorite payers enjoying a nice year so far, linemakers are forced to raise those numbers higher than they might ordinarily be. That is my take.
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    • ThaWoj
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-09-10
      • 6752

      #3
      Originally posted by str
      The preseason line on that game was Detroit -2. With favorite payers enjoying a nice year so far, linemakers are forced to raise those numbers higher than they might ordinarily be. That is my take.
      I just mean theres no reason the line should be dropping. Public money is all over detroit and books have already come out this week and said detroit futures are their biggest liability and if they had a choice they would take detroit off the board.
      Comment
      • str
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-12-09
        • 11641

        #4
        Originally posted by ThaWoj
        I just mean theres no reason the line should be dropping. Public money is all over detroit and books have already come out this week and said detroit futures are their biggest liability and if they had a choice they would take detroit off the board.
        I just refuse to trust or even look at where the public betting % is. It is the opposite too often, like in this case, to be true.

        And, if the public is all over a game, I am usually on the other side anyway which has been a liability for me in the NFL so far this year.

        GL today.
        Comment
        • Eddy Munny
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-13-13
          • 15762

          #5
          It's a half point, it's not some earth shattering move. There was probably some respected money that came in on the dog or some buy groups that simply just took the number while it still had the hook. Public tickets are generally of the smaller variety and don't move the needle a ton unless it's the Super Bowl or something and the volume is enormous.
          Comment
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