What is the Home Field NFL Advantage Really Worth?

[stevenash]

[str]

I have always thought that there are too many intangibles, you know, the small things, like the timing of the travel, back to back travel, three in a row on the road, cold weather in warm environment and vice versa to look at them the way your graph is.

These things come into play at various times for different teams obviously. Also, a division sandwich travel? All the little things that typically equal more than you might think.
I take them one by one and look for what can creep into the players heads, bodies, etc. or not. And of course, look ahead situations as well as let down. Emotion plays quite a bit as we know. The emotion used to play a role with riders at the track so you know it comes into play in the NFL.
The players can feel it. The trick is can we find it? Seems easy when you can but seems impossible when you can't.

That's my take Nasher.

[Optional]

Agree with str but can see some use in tracking the < 1 HFA teams, and looking for road dogs against them. More than trying to follow those that show an inordinate high rate.

[Mac4Lyfe]

There is no way I’m going to believe that the Raiders AND the Rams have better home field advantage than the Seahawks or Falcons.

[str]

The sample size is quite small. Several years ago, Detroit would have been near the bottom.
Washington was a nice home field advantage back in the DC stadium days but the “Dan” ruined the franchise. Thankfully, he left DC in disgrace .
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
it’s going to make a comeback but will take time.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agree with str but can see some use in tracking the < 1 HFA teams, and looking for road dogs against them. More than trying to follow those that show an inordinate high rate.

Good stuff, Opti. The NFL HFA is tracking at an average of about 1.0.

Some tickets are incredibly easy to snare for road teams. It's not unusual for Packer/Steeler fans to be 50/50+ at road venues that don't sell out.

There's an angle to this. The smart guys should be able to figure a strategy to profit on this.

[Madison]

I have always thought that there are too many intangibles, you know, the small things, like the timing of the travel, back to back travel, three in a row on the road, cold weather in warm environment and vice versa to look at them the way your graph is.

These things come into play at various times for different teams obviously. Also, a division sandwich travel? All the little things that typically equal more than you might think.
I take them one by one and look for what can creep into the players heads, bodies, etc. or not. And of course, look ahead situations as well as let down. Emotion plays quite a bit as we know. The emotion used to play a role with riders at the track so you know it comes into play in the NFL.
The players can feel it. The trick is can we find it? Seems easy when you can but seems impossible when you can't.

That's my take Nasher.

This. PIT last night is a prime example. Won a BIG matchup SUN vs Ravens. Travel on real short week (THUR) to CLE who is presumed to be caving.

My friend and I are 1/6 left for 20K Survivor. He's a newbie. While this (PIT) stood out as a great opp to move on and hope MIA fails (4/6) have MIA I steered clear. We will likely choose MIA however you can win the pot with a MIA loss (Assuming others use them). It's a fascinating game.

[stevenash]

a) The data in the chart was created by an employee at VSIN that I communicated with.
b) I don't necessarily agree or disagree with the data (some of it is useful though)
c) I thought by posting this it would stimulate some interesting responses.

[Getch13]

NFELO Home field tracker

https://www.nfeloapp.com/tools/nfl-home-field-advantage-hfa-tracker/

[actiondan]

brent?

a) The data in the chart was created by an employee at VSIN that I communicated with.
b) I don't necessarily agree or disagree with the data (some of it is useful though)
c) I thought by posting this it would stimulate some interesting responses.

[actiondan]

steve is tight with brent

[ChuckyTheGoat]

steve is tight with brent

Imagine being Brent's bookie. That has to be worth ~ $20,000 per year.

[stevenash]

brent?

Bill Adee actually, he's one of the chief content writers over there.

Brent's a shill.

[actiondan]

nice stevie